PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: El Camaleon Golf Club
Justin Thomas: $11,400 (+$208)
Last Ownership: 14.2%
SG Ranking: 17th OTT | 2nd APP | 3rd ATG | 31st PTT
Justin Thomas comes in as the best overall player in the field despite not being the best player in any individual stat category. As you can see, the tee-to-green play is and has been nearly unmatched while the putting keeps him above average.
Coming off a quiet 4th at the Masters, JT comes in as the far and away favorite in the betting market with nearly twice as good odds as anyone else in the field to win. Sure, he is the highest priced player in this field, but DraftKings does not price these big favorites high enough most weeks.
JT has finished T12 or better in five straight events and is peaking at the right time for this top-heavy field.
Daniel Berger: $10,400 (+$441)
Last Ownership: 19.5%
SG Ranking: 30th OTT | 8th APP | 66th ATG | 3rd PTT
We haven’t seen Daniel Berger in a while due to his failure to qualify for the Masters that set their field in April, prior to the PGA lockdown. For the last calendar year, though, one could argue Berger has been the most consistent player on Tour.
Berger added a win in the first event back from the restart and never really slowed down. There’s only one player in this field that has gained more strokes over their last fifty rounds than Berger, and he’s listed above.
He’s missed one cut in a year’s time, and his worst finish in those other fifteen events is T38. Hopefully Berger knocks the rust off quickly as there aren’t many people on the planet, especially in this field, that can guarantee himself to be worth your lineup spot.
Russell Henley: $9,300 (+$1,348)
Last Ownership: 16.3%
SG Ranking: 32nd OTT | 1st APP | 19th ATG | 78th PTT
Russell Henley remains the best iron player in this field and potentially in all of golf. That fact alone is enough to play him at this price range.
Henley has made each of his last nine cuts including no finish worse than T37. All of this includes fairly average to below average putting. Henley has lost strokes putting in three straight events, including Zozo where he lost five strokes putting while finishing fourth.
Henley’s length off-the-tee gives him limited upside, but we saw Brendon Todd win here last year with short, accurate drives with elite iron play and a hot putter. Henley certainly needs the hot putter to win this week, but he doesn’t need it to compete at the top of the board as we’ve seen in week’s past.
No excess value.
Harold Varner III: $7,800 (+$1,382)
Last Ownership: 19.3%
SG Ranking: 24th OTT | 7th APP | 7th ATG | 83rd PTT
Harold Varner is a solid GPP-only play nearly every week, but especially so coming off a bad week at high ownership. For example, we had this exact situation two tournaments ago for him, and his ownership plummeted from 20% to around 10%.
HV3 has missed three of his last eight cuts but has finished T30 or better in every one of those five events where he made the cut. Like Henley, Varner has some limited upside with his lack of length off-the-tee and highly variant putter, but easier, resort-style courses can work to his benefit.
At this price range, you don’t need much more than a made cut from Varner while T30 will surely get the job done.
Sepp Straka: $7,600 (+$419)
Last Ownership: 6.9%
SG Ranking: 52nd OTT | 11th APP | 99th ATG | 26th PTT
Sepp Straka was a missed cut machine to start the 2020 season, but has since righted the ship in a massive way. Straka has made eleven of his last fourteen cuts while succeeding in the areas we care about this week.
Over his last three events, Straka has gained 14.6 strokes on approach and historically is a well above average putter. We’ve seen that combination of skills succeed here and at other resort courses in the past, and every part of Straka’s game continues to improve.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Cameron Percy: $6,400 (+$987) | Michael Gligic: $6,400 (+$720) | Wesley Bryan: $6,600 (+$630)