PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: Corales Course at Punta Cana Resort and Golf Club
The course this week is the Corales Course at Punta Cana Resort and Golf Club in the Dominican Republic. There is no shotlink data at this course given it’s international, so it is difficult to say definitively what types of players tend to play well here. We can only make assessments from what we know.
The fairways are of the most forgiving these guys will play all year and should not be of concern here. That would typically take away from accurate drivers of the ball and benefit bombers who are more wild than accurate.
The greens are typically quite slow and we’ve seen players with good short games, particularly good putters, get around here, as it’ll quickly turn into a chipping/putting contest. Our emphasis will generally revolve on putting and the bombers.
For full disclosure, I would generally recommend playing less volume this week as the data capturing for this event is quite difficult.
Mackenzie Hughes: $10,300 (+$595)
Last Ownership: 5.3%
SG Ranking: 79th OTT | 76th APP | 7th ATG | 1st PTT
Straight out of the gate, the best short game and best putter in the field makes our list. Mackenzie Hughes will see his ownership increase quite a bit, as will most of these guys considering the weak field.
Hughes is expected, per my model, to gain over 1.3 strokes on this field in chipping and putting this week. You’re not going to get a ball-striking clinic from Hughes in most events, but you know that if he hits any green, there’s a chance he makes a birdie given his short game. In fact, Hughes hasn’t lost strokes putting since the Farmers in January.
Not to mention, he’s only missed two cuts since the restart and has finished T14 or better in six of his last twelve events dating back before the shutdown.
No excess value.
Henrik Norlander: $8,600 (+$1,070)
Last Ownership: 7.8%
SG Ranking: 28th OTT | 6th APP | 83rd ATG | 33rd PTT
Norlander is the biggest mispriced player of this week. Norlander is the 10th-best tee to green player in this field with a well above average putter and sits in the middle of this $8k range.
Norlander isn’t going to blow the doors off in any one area in the Dominican, but he should keep steadily scoring throughout the weekend. He is not as consistent as some of the top-end players in this field, but he continues to pop up on leaderboards in bigger events.
As someone who will command much less ownership than most of the guys above him, Norlander is a great option in GPP lineups where he still has a decent chance to win given this field.
Will Gordon: $7,600 (+$703)
Last Ownership: N/A
SG Ranking: 4th OTT | 47th APP | 53rd ATG | 76th PTT
Will Gordon is the opposite type of player that generally fits this course, but his ability to bomb the ball off the tee while being priced so far down the board is very intriguing. Corales, especially with the wind picking up, can play quite long at times and Gordon is one of the few bombers in the field.
As the fourth-best driver in the field, he can go a little sideways at times; hence, these extremely wide fairways relative to a typical PGA event will help him quite a bit. The putting isn’t great, but his ball-striking should easily get him into the weekend.
At just $7,600 with his driving abilities, he’s quite a bargain.
Chris Baker: $7,500 (+$550)
Last Ownership: N/A
SG Ranking: 26th OTT | 7th APP | 80th ATG | 80th PTT
As the least recognizable name in the $7k range, we should not expect Chris Baker to demand a lot of ownership this week. I could, however, make a good case as to why he should.
Analytical breakdown aside, Baker has missed just one cut since the restart. At this price point in this field, that’s enough to play him alone. He also ranks 7th tee to green with just the 80th best putter in the field. He’s not the prototypical Corales player that we want, but his ball-striking will always be intriguing.
Baker should make the cut here and that’s reason enough to play roster him across the board.
Seamus Power: $7,500 (+$737)
Last Ownership: 3.7%
SG Ranking: 50th OTT | 81st APP | 6th ATG | 24th PTT
Seamus Power is the typical golfer that we’d want to play around Corales. His ball-striking is good enough to get around, but his short game is what should really shine around here.
As the 35th-best tee to green player and 6th-best short game, Power should be plenty good enough this week to make the cut. Power has recently struggled around the PGA Tour, which is understandable considering his ball-striking troubles at times. This field, however, won’t have as much of a leg up on Power in that aspect.
Power is much more of a boom-or-bust GPP play this week, but if the putter stays hot as it’s been recently and he finds something in his approach play, he could easily find himself atop the leaderboard over the weekend.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Martin Laird: $6,600 (+$1,108) | Michael Gligic: $6,500 (+$599) | Alex Cejka: $6,300 (+$464) | Alex Smalley: $6,400 (+$695)
Feel free to reach out on Twitter (@realfrankbrank) with any questions or sample lineups you may have. Below are some sample lineups of my own.