PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: TPC Twin Cities
As we’ve only had one event at this course, it’s tough to say specifically, from a strokes gained perspective, what the correct weighting for each category may become with more sample. Nonetheless, it seems ball striking (driving and approach) is going to be the most important factor this week.
In the only event we have PGA Tour data for, it’s obvious that there will be a ton of greens hit and plenty of birdies to go around. That reduces the putting and chipping outcomes and places importance on hitting close approach shots while taking advantage of the par-5s.
No excess value.
Russell Henley: $9,200 (+$111)
Last Ownership: 6.6%
SG Ranking: 43rd OTT | 1st APP | 40th ATG | 99th PTT
Granted the field is much weaker than even an average week on the PGA Tour, but Russell Henley now rates as the best approach player in this field in my model. Henley didn’t play last week at a premier approach course but has gained more than six strokes on approach in three of his last four events.
Sure, the short game stinks, but you have to play him at this price and ownership given the emphasis we need to be putting on ball striking at Twin Cities. In terms of ball striking (driving plus approach), Henley ranks third in this field as he still gains strokes off the tee.
Henley’s ownership should see a tick up this week, but he’s still making most of my lineups.
Harris English: $9,000 (+$1,045)
Last Ownership: 8.3%
SG Ranking: 15th OTT | 17th APP | 28th ATG | 7th PTT
It feels even crazy to type this but: Harris English is one of the best overall players in this field. His $9,000 price tag is being derived from 35/1 odds that are far too high in the betting market.
Since August of last year, Harris English has only lost strokes to the field in two events. In four of those events, he’s gained more than ten strokes on the field. English doesn’t stick out in any single stat category, but when you start adding them all up, you get a clear picture as to why and how he’s ranked 10th in strokes gained on the PGA Tour this year.
English’s ownership has been on the steady rise as his performance and results continue to trend in the right direction, but I’m still a big fan this week until he gives me reason to choose otherwise.
Patrick Rodgers: $8,200 (+$683)
Last Ownership: 0.5%
SG Ranking: 23rd OTT | 83rd APP | 65th ATG | 3rd PTT
Patrick Rodgers isn’t exactly performing in the areas we’d like to see this week with his extremely average iron play; however, the putter can get hot enough for him to win this week with this field.
Nonetheless, those putts need to come after useful iron shots. If Rodgers can gain some strokes on approach this week and the putter stays as hot as it’s been, he could make a run at this thing. With plenty of length off the tee, Twin Cities sets up nicely to fit the rest of his game, as he should hit a ton of approach shots from the fairway; something he’s not necessarily accustomed to on the golf course.
Not to mention, his ownership rates in a field like this is something to desire. At just 0.5% last week up against a T18 finish, he’s hard not to love again this week.
Sepp Straka: $7,900 (+$505)
Last Ownership: 6.2%
SG Ranking: 24th OTT | 58th APP | 76th ATG | 12th PTT
Sepp Straka isn’t exactly a name you’ve seen thrown around in recent PGA news. Since the restart, though, Straka has been on a steady rise of better play and a steady rise of strokes gained. He hasn’t put everything together in one tournament to really pop up the leaderboard, but he’s made four of six cuts while finishing in the top-30 or better three times. What else could we want for GPPs?
Sepp Straka has only put his whole game together once since the restart and it yielded a T8 finish. He isn’t great in any single area, but he is good in every single applicable category, which is all you could ask for at this price range.
Cameron Tringale: $7,200 (+$1,125)
Last Ownership: 2.9%
SG Ranking: 98th OTT | 12th APP | 16th ATG | 40th PTT
Cameron Tringale’s game has been slowly improving since the beginning of last year. He hasn’t been as consistent since the restart as he had been in the past, but he’s shown some boom or bust potential.
Tringale’s length off the tee puts him at a disadvantage this week and in this field, but the rest of his game can make up that difference, especially at this price range. Tringale is gaining strokes at a well above average rate across the other categories.
Over his last 20 events, Tringale has averaged 2.7 total strokes gained all while losing strokes to the field off the tee. This isn’t the typical course we’d like to ride Tringale at, but at just $7,200 in this field, it’s hard not to like him.
Chase Seiffert: $7,000 (+$1,468)
Last Ownership: 0.4%
SG Ranking: 72nd OTT | 25th APP | 35th ATG | 14th PTT
Chase Seiffert has been a player quietly popping up in my model for the last few weeks, but I’ve been hesitant to use him for a number of reasons. Chief among them being his lack of sample size on the PGA Tour as he’s only played 28 rounds since November of last year.
That being said, he’s produced great results in that small sample. He’s gained strokes in five of his eight events in that timespan while only losing more than two strokes to the field once. Seiffert splashed onto the scene at the Workday Charity Open with a T4 finish where he gained 12.6 strokes total, half of which was from putting.
That’s typically not a sustainable way to play golf; however, he still gained nearly six strokes tee to green on the field, which omits putting. Seiffert is pretty average from a distance perspective, but he has been hitting fairways at a much greater rate in his last few PGA events, which will be paramount to compliment the rest of his well above average game at Twin Cities. I suspect we’ll see a bit of an ownership bump, but there’s still plenty to love here.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Brice Garnett: $6,900 (+$1,389) | Cameron Davis: $6,500 (+$1,101) | Cameron Percy: $6,500 (+$1,049) | Shawn Stefani: $6,300 (+$655)
Feel free to reach out on Twitter (@realfrankbrank) with any questions or sample lineups you may have. Below are some sample lineups of my own.