Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: Innisbrook Golf Club
The official course preview can be found here.
Justin Thomas $11,500 (+$2,214)
22nd OTT | 1st APP | 4th ATG | 39th PTT
Justin Thomas comes in leading the betting market and my model’s chances of winning. I give him about a one in seven chance in winning this week at Innisbrook.
JT is the best approach player in this field and ranked inside the top-four in chipping. JT’s recent “struggles” have been mostly due to his wayward driving. However, he’ll be required to layup off-the-tee this week and rely on his iron game.
Innisbrook will play similarly to TPC Sawgrass, where Thomas just won last month.
Corey Conners $9,600 (+$452)
3rd OTT | 3rd APP | 78th ATG | 30th PTT
The Corey Conners train rolls on even though his price has steadily increased. There’s a lot less value to chew on this week, but he still should make your lineups.
Conners ranks third off-the-tee, third on approach, and second in ball striking, only trailing Justin Thomas. Since his putting has dramatically improved in the 2021 season, the results have followed.
He’s missed one cut since September and has finished 14th or better in five straight events.
Joaquin Niemann $9,100 (+$216)
1st OTT | 23rd APP | 110th ATG | 8th PTT
Speaking of missed cuts, Joaqo hasn’t missed one since August and has finished outside the top-40 in two of his last sixteen events.
A lot of that credit is due to his increase in driving distance while keeping all of his previous accuracy. His approach play and putting has also improved in that timespan. Niemann is truly turning into one of the best, younger players on Tour. He just hasn’t won a ton of events yet.
At just $9,100, Niemann gives you plenty of upside to win this event.
Charley Hoffman $8,600 (+$1,800)
19th OTT | 7th APP | 16th ATG | 18th PTT
Charley Hoffman is the latest player to blindly add to your roster for the foreseeable future, especially at courses that don’t favor the longest hitters like Innisbrook.
Despite giving up distance to most of the elite players on Tour, Hoffman still gains plenty of strokes off-the-tee due to his accuracy. He ranks 7th in this field on approach and 19th or better in every strokes-gained category.
Steadiness is a good way to compete and win the Valspar, and Charley Hoffman has a real chance to do so down in this $8k range.
Max Homa $8,100 (+$151)
38th OTT | 15th APP | 23rd ATG | 17th PTT
Even though he’s recently won against an elite field, Max Homa is getting a reduced price this week due to two missed cuts in his last two events. The missed cuts came from some poor putting that we know has a ton of variance.
Coming into the last two missed cuts, Homa had finished 22nd or better in six of seven events, including his win at the Genesis. Much like Hoffman, he’s well above average in all four strokes-gained categories and has recently shown the ability to grind out a tough golf course.
You aren’t getting a super-cheap price on Homa, but it’s plenty enough to roster him in at least some of your lineups.
Patton Kizzire $6,500 (+$23)
94th OTT | 32nd APP | 51st ATG | 15th PTT
Patton Kizzire let us down at the RBC where his horrendous start to his Thursday round led to a missed cut. He was able to bounce back quite a bit on Friday, but it wasn’t quite enough to play the weekend.
Kizzire is a higher variance player due to his skillset relying on making tons of putts, but good iron play and hot putting isn’t a bad way to get around Innisbrook.
Despite being let down in his last event, I still think Kizzire is a solid GPP play again this week.
Below is a sample lineup to give an idea on what construction we are favoring this week.