Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
The official course preview can be found here.
No excess value.
Note: You’ll want to play some guys in this range in some lineups given their chance to win. My model just doesn’t see much value in any of them. The guys most fairly priced in this range are Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith.
Paul Casey $9,200 (+$2,087)
32nd OTT | 6th APP | 11th ATG | 9th PTT
Paul Casey was the worst-priced golfer last week, and we’re seeing a significant bump from the $7k range this week. Worldwide, Casey’s worst finish since the fall Masters was T26, which was last week. Even that somewhat disappointing finish after a hot start was well worth his salary.
Harbour Town will favor accurate players, especially with long irons off the tee, with great short games. Putting isn’t necessarily Casey’s strong point throughout his career, but he’s made huge improvements since the start of 2021. He ranks 30th in this field in my model in strokes-gained putting.
Beyond the greens, ball striking and accuracy have been the backbone of Paul Casey’s golf career. He’s a great long iron player who can thread the needle around this golf course.
Corey Conners $9,300 (+$1,184)
2nd OTT | 3rd APP | 97th ATG | 26th PTT
Though Harbour Town will test your short game, I don’t mind finding the ball striking at cheaper prices where I can get it. According to my model, Corey Conners is the single best ball striker in this field. His T8 finish at the Masters last week was evidence of how good he’s been tee to green.
Like Casey, the short game could use some work and it seems he’s doing so. The chipping remains below average on Tour, but his flatstick has seen a decent bump. Conners has gained strokes putting in his last three measured events with the worst one being +2.3 strokes.
He’s finished T14 or better in four straight events and inside the top-17 in 10 of his last 14 events. Conners’ next win is coming soon if he keeps striking it like he has over his career and doesn’t revert back to his old putting ways.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $9,100 (+$637)
5th OTT | 71st APP | 16th ATG | 4th PTT
Matt Fitzpatrick has finished T11 or better in four of his last five events with a T34 coming last week at the Masters. Augusta isn’t necessarily a great track for Fitz, and he still finished plenty high enough to get your money’s worth.
Harbour Town, however, is a great fit for Fitzpatrick’s short game. Ranking second overall in short game this week, Fitz has plenty ability to make his birdie chances and get up and down on these smaller greens.
You’d like to see more from his approach game, but his accuracy off the tee and willingness to hit less than driver around here will treat him well. If there’s one week to bet on the short game, this is it.
No excess value.
Charley Hoffman $7,800 (+$2,283)
25th OTT | 1st APP | 55th ATG | 27th PTT
Charley Hoffman ranks first on approach this week and that alone is enough reason to play him at this price. Over his last four measured events, Hoffman has gained 23.6 strokes on approach. The results have followed having finished T17 or better in three of his last four tournaments.
Beyond iron play, Hoffman is also extremely accurate off the tee which will certainly help him this week. Despite being below average in terms of distance, he still gains a decent amount from the tee box due to his elite accuracy.
If he gets the hot putting week, Charley Hoffman has a real chance to win an event like this one.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,700 (+$360)
79th OTT | 52nd APP | 4th ATG | 8th PTT
If we’re looking for an elite short game in this range, Bezuidenhout is our guy. At fourth overall in short game, you’ll give up some ball striking in this range.
As you can see above Bezuidenhout ranks just 79th off the tee and 52nd on approach, but Harbour Town gives us some flexibility to roster these guys for once. It’s unlikely that he’ll give us the upside to win, but his elite short game has propelled him to make 13 of 17 cuts in his PGA Tour career.
I wouldn’t mind a lucky approach week, but at this price range, we don’t need much more than a made cut.
Patton Kizzire $6,500 (+$710)
70th OTT | 34th APP | 68th ATG | 24th PTT
Someone who does give us the upside to win on the PGA Tour is Patton Kizzire as he’s done so twice in his career. Kizzire is someone who can get extremely hot with the putter and irons at times. When both of those things click, he has a real chance to win.
Kizzire has also made 13 of his last 14 cuts dating back to September, so he also gives you the security of a made cut at just $6,500. Rostering Kizzire this week allows you to take an extra guy towards the top of the board.
No one down below the $7k line is a must play, but someone like Kizzire will definitely help your upside throughout your lineups.
Below is a sample lineup to give an idea on what construction we are favoring this week.