Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: TPC Scottsdale
No excess value.
Note: You are going to want to play at least one or multiple guys in this range. Given how much firepower is at the top of this field, they are chewing up a lot of equity, and my belief is most of these guys are appropriately priced. The only clear avoid for me would be Rory McIlroy. There are some example lineups at the bottom of the article to see some potential plays.
Daniel Berger $9,600 (+$430)
Last Ownership: 29.1%
SG Ranking: 18th OTT | 18th APP | 51st ATG | 8th PTT
At just $9,600, Daniel Berger remains one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour and heads to a course that fits his skill set quite well. As not an overly long hitter off the tee with plenty of accuracy, Berger should find his way around TPC Scottsdale just fine.
As the eighth-best putter in this field, according to my model, Berger has the ball striking and talent to win at a course like this at any time. Plus, you don’t have to pay the ultra-premium price for him.
His high ownership stake at Sony that lacked star power should surely reduce quite a bit given the names ahead of him on the board. Not to mention the names below him like Koepka, Wolff, Watson, and Fowler should gain some public interest.
In the last calendar year, Berger has missed one cut, finished inside the top-10 eight times, won at the Charles Schwab, and his worst four-day finish is T34. Don’t overthink it. Set it and forget it with Berger.
Russell Henley $8,200 (+$988)
Last Ownership: 18.9%
SG Ranking: 54th OTT | 1st APP | 15th ATG | 63rd PTT
We’re getting a reduced price on the best iron player in the field this week since he’s missed two of his last three cuts, although Henley did finish 11th in between those two missed cuts. Going back to the WM Open last year, Henley has put together an impressive calendar year, particularly with the iron play.
Henley has missed just four cuts in that timeframe while gaining strokes on approach in 16 of his last 17 events. The only event in which he lost strokes on approach was the RBC Heritage, his first tournament back from the COVID shutdown.
The hot and cold putter likely determines the outcome this week for Henley, but we should feel comfortable that Henley will hit a ton of fairways combined with plenty of close short iron shots. If he can brush in enough putts on these pure greens, he’s has a real chance to compete at the top of the board yet again.
Si Woo Kim $8,100 (+$390)
Last Ownership: 3.4%
SG Ranking: 65th OTT | 9th APP | 3rd ATG | 52nd PTT
Si Woo Kim missed the cut last week on the number after losing two strokes putting on Friday. That can happen to anyone around Torrey Pines, but especially with someone with a high variance flatstick like Si Woo.
Given that he still gained strokes on the field in those two rounds and kept up his tee-to-green game, I won’t be scared off of him this week. He is getting quite a reduced price here, though.
Kim isn’t going to keep up with the bombers at just 65th in this field off-the-tee, but he’s actually above average in finding fairways, which is our main area of concern. Even with his distance deficiency off-the-tee, Kim still puts up the eighth-best tee-to-green game in the field behind his solid iron play and chipping.
Don’t let a fluky one day putter scare you off Kim at a course that fits him much better than Torrey Pines.
Corey Conners $7,900 (+$1,361)
Last Ownership: 16.6%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 14th APP | 57th ATG | 84th PTT
It may surprise you to see Conners rated as the best driver of the ball in the field this week, but once my model adjusts for the need to hit fairways versus distance, that’s exactly where he ends up.
Corey Conners hasn’t lost more than one stroke off-the-tee since The Open of July 2019 and has been particularly good as of late. Over his last fifty rounds, Conners has gained more strokes hitting fairways than anyone else in this field.
His skills don’t stop there. Conners has gained strokes on approach in all but three events in the last calendar year. He rates 14th in that metric this week in my model.
Coming off eight straight made cuts, Conners will need more than the driver and irons this week to win as the putter is a big sticking point with his game. As of late, though, he’s made quite an improvement. It remains to be seen whether or not there’s just some positive variance or real skill improvement, but he’s been right around a Tour-average putter since September.
If he can get on the good side of the variance this week, his ball striking might just put him on the top of this field.
Brendon Todd $7,400 (+$1,486)
Last Ownership: 20.9%
SG Ranking: 74th OTT | 97th APP | 5th ATG | 1st PTT
In stark contrast to Corey Conners, Brendon Todd could not be more different. He is a short game savant that my model predicts would gain more than a stroke on average in chipping plus putting over four rounds to the next best golfer.
Todd is also extremely accurate off-the-tee but lacks so much in terms of length that he rarely gains strokes. The irons, as you can see above, do not rate out great, but they are typically highly variant for him. That can go south quickly if the putter or short game struggles at all, but when the irons and putter are hot, he can pop and win at any time.
This is mostly an all-out GPP play at $7,400.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Harold Varner $6,700 (+$1,191) | Cameron Tringale $6,900 (+$1,158) | Camilo Villegas $6,100 (+$827) | Brian Gay $6,100 (+$815)