Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: Riviera Country Club
The official course preview by @friedeggpaulie can be found here.
$10,000+ Range
No excess value.
Note: You want to play at least one or multiple guys in this range. My model does not see any excess value available, but they should generally be the highest-scoring players in the field.
$9,000 Range
Xander Schauffele $9,900 (+$1,216)
Last Ownership: 16.7%
SG Ranking: 15th OTT | 24th APP | 25th ATG | 2nd PTT
The only thing not to like about Xander Schauffele’s game is his struggles over the last year to notch a win as he’s done nearly everything else.
Xander has finished second or third ten times since his last win at the 2019 Tournament of Champions. He’s missed just four cuts since that win and has finished outside the top-27 in any four-round event just three times.
As you can see above, Xander does everything well. He’s the 9th-best tee-to-green player in this elite field while ranking second in putting. With all of the studs in this field, you should be getting Xander at a lower ownership.
Patrick Cantlay $9,600 (+$342)
Last Ownership: 20.7%
SG Ranking: 47th OTT | 38th APP | 7th ATG | 7th PTT
Cantlay hasn’t been too far behind Xander in consistency over the last year. He’s a slightly worse ball striker, but he’s got plenty of win equity paired with an elite short game.
With tight fairways and small greens, we’ll want elite ball strikers around Riviera. However, we also want guys who can get up and down over the weekend on tough greens. Cantlay can do everything for us.
It’s difficult to distinguish the difference between Cantlay and Schauffele at this price and those above him, with the exception of DJ. Cantlay coming into this week off a win at Zozo in October, a second-place finish at The AmEx, and third place last week at Pebble Beach.
With how stacked this field is at the top, you can grab these two under $10k and still have plenty to fill out your roster with quality golfers.
$8,000 Range
No excess value.
$7,000 Range
Cameron Tringale $7,600 (+$1,254)
Last Ownership: 7.9%
SG Ranking: 38th OTT | 23rd APP | 61st ATG | 6th PTT
We’ve been riding Cameron Tringale off his hot iron play and hot putter, so why stop now after his T7 finish last week?
Tringale gained 4.2 strokes on approach and 6.3 strokes putting last week. He’s only lost strokes putting in any event once since the restart and lost strokes on approach three times in that timespan.
Although it doesn’t seem like a quality fit for him, Tringale finished T30 here last year and has only missed the cut once in his nine trips to Riviera. Something to watch for is the weakest part of his game, chipping.
If the greens prove to be fast and difficult to hold out of the rough, it could spell problems for Tringale and his short game. Regardless, at this price, you don’t need much more than a made cut.
Lanto Griffin $7,600 (+$991)
Last Ownership: 2.8%
SG Ranking: 52nd OTT | 11th APP | 109th ATG | 3rd PTT
This is the first time I’ve found some value in Lanto Griffin in some time, but it does come with concerns. For starters, he’s about an average driver of the ball, perhaps below average in this field. Driving is muted this week due to the difficulty to hit fairways in general, so my bigger concern is his chipping skills.
Lanto ranks 109th in strokes gained chipping in this field of about 120 players. What does bode well for him, though, is his iron play and putting, especially lately, have been outstanding.
Griffin ranks 11th this week in approach and third putting. In his last seven events, he’s gained more than six strokes putting three times and has only lost strokes on the greens once. His approach game is equally impressive. Griffin has gained strokes in all but one event since late June and has lost strokes with his irons just once.
Griffin isn’t a guy I would expect to win this tournament, but if he stays hot, his value is plenty.
Cameron Davis $7,600 (+$797)
Last Ownership: 19.6%
SG Ranking: 14th OTT | 37th APP | 46th ATG | 26th PTT
Cam Davis is trending upwards faster than any golfer in the non-elite range. He’s finished T32 or better in four straight starts and has only missed one cut since mid-July. In his last five events, he’s gained strokes across all four categories.
Since that mid-July timeframe, he’s finished T40 or better in all but two four-day events. Davis has been among the elite ball strikers on Tour since the new season started in January and now heads to a near-perfect course fit.
At just $7,600, Davis gives you plenty of upside and consistency to roster across all your lineups. His ownership has been through the roof given his lack of trophies, but he’s simply mispriced in this range.
$6,000 Range
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Brian Gay $6,000 (+$1,063) | Mackenzie Hughes $6,600 (+$1,059) | Wesley Bryan $6,100 (+$950)
