Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: Pebble Beach
No excess value.
Note: You are going to want to play at least one or multiple guys in this range. I don’t mind playing any of the three guys listed in the 10k range.
Si Woo Kim $9,400 (+$466)
Last Ownership: 5.5%
SG Ranking: 60th OTT | 4th APP | 1st ATG | 54th PTT
The last two weeks have been underwhelming on the Si Woo Train, but it’s not enough to scare me off of him in this field this week.
Si Woo surprisingly lost 2.3 strokes off-the-tee last week at a course you’d expect him to excel. TPC Scottsdale generally stresses hitting fairways over distance, and Kim simply did not succeed. If he had his normal driving week, he would have carded another top-30 finish.
Instead, Kim ended up at T50 and provides us with some more value this week. Si Woo still gained strokes on approach, which has been his biggest weapon as of late in his more recent consistency. For example, he gained 7.9 strokes on approach when he won the AmEx tournament.
Since June, Kim has missed just three cuts and always has the potential to go nuclear with the irons. What else could you want in your GPP lineups this week?
Sam Burns $9,100 (+$478)
Last Ownership: 12.6%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 22nd APP | 97th ATG | 5th PTT
Sam Burns is more of a fringe play in this range, given the weakness of the field above him. Burns typically gets a ton of his value from being a long, accurate driver of the golf ball. Thus, longer courses will always be his forte.
Despite cutting driving value nearly in half, my model still likes Burns this week. TPC Scottsdale similarly featured a downgrade to driving, albeit not quite as big as Pebble, and he still finished T22 in a tough field.
Dating back to the restart last season, Burns has missed just three cuts and finished T34 or better in every other four-day event. He has the rare skill of being able to bomb it off-the-tee and putt the lights out at times.
I can definitely see an argument of leaving Burns out of your lineups this week since his greatest advantage is cut in half, but there’s not much value elsewhere at the top of this board.
Henrik Norlander $8,700 (+$1,002)
Last Ownership: 9.0%
SG Ranking: 9th OTT | 1st APP | 99th ATG | 34th PTT
We’re missing out on our Russell Henley level of elite iron play this week, but Henrik Norlander might just make up for it. What you see above isn’t a mistype. Norlander is the highest-rated iron player in this field, according to my model.
He’s also plenty accurate off the tee to give himself plenty of birdie looks at Pebble this week. The putter will need to get hot as he typically trends around the PGA Tour average on the greens, but if the irons stay this positive, he’s got a real chance to win.
Norlander has gained strokes on ball striking (tee plus approach) in every event dating back to August. If he does that over the first two days, he should easily make the cut and give himself a chance on the weekend.
From November to January, Norlander missed four straight cuts. He’s followed that up with T22 last week, T2 at the Farmers, and T12 at AmEx. He’s trending in the right direction in the areas we are stressing this week.
Cameron Tringale $8,500 (+$1,104)
Last Ownership: 7.9%
SG Ranking: 35th OTT | 6th APP | 43rd ATG | 20th PTT
There’s a trend here, as you can see, that my model enjoys among lower owned guys who are great iron players with a chance to make putts over the weekend. Cameron Tringale fits that mold.
Despite this course and field setup seemingly being made for him, Tringale hasn’t had a lot of success at this event. Hopefully, that changes this week as he comes in as the sixth-best iron player in this field.
Tringale has also gained strokes putting in ten of his last eleven events, which feature just three missed cuts and seven top-30 finishes. We won’t need much more than another top-30 this week to get our money’s worth, but he also has the potential for a top-10 finish given the field strength.
Harold Varner III $7,700 (+$996)
Last Ownership: 2.7%
SG Ranking: 31st OTT | 2nd APP | 12th ATG | 117th PTT
Harold Varner’s weakness with the putter will drive you mad along the way of playing him in your GPP lineups, but when he’s not pathetically bad, he’s a great option nearly every week.
Varner hits a ton of fairways and regularly gains strokes off-the-tee despite being a shorter hitter on tour because of that. His iron play, especially with shorter irons, is his biggest strength. At a course last week that features a similar skillset to Pebble, Varner finished T13 despite losing strokes putting due to accurate driving and nearly five gained strokes on approach.
The putter will surely let him down along the way at an event he’d have a good chance to win otherwise, but he should make your GPP lineups in the off chance he runs into a few lip-ins over the weekend.
Charley Hoffman $7,300 (+$721)
Last Ownership: 3.8%
SG Ranking: 27th OTT | 19th APP | 89th ATG | 38th PTT
Hoffman missed the cut on the number last week due to some poor iron play, but that isn’t going to scare me off of him too much in a field like this one.
As you can see above, Charley Hoffman isn’t a name you’d associate with a top-30 driver, but he is in this field with his newfound distance gains. For example, Hoffman ranks 13th overall in his last twelve rounds in distance gained off the tee this week.
Even though we are discounting off-the-tee play quite a bit, I’d rather have it than not have it. Hoffman also ranks 19th in approach despite losing strokes to the field in his two rounds last week. His putter also ranks in the top-40 in this field at right around an average PGA Tour player.
All of this adds up to a price and ownership that’s far too short for Hoffman, who made four straight cuts headed into last week, including four top-30s. At this price, we’ll take a made cut. But he has a real chance for a top-20 finish in this weak field.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Cameron Percy $6,900 (+$500) | Kristoffer Ventura $6,600 (+$368)