PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: TPC Summerlin
In terms of data, TPC Summerlin doesn’t offer much different than last week’s event at the Country Club of Jackson. In much of the same way, off the tee play is relatively muted while iron play and putting stick out as the most influential areas to succeed.
We’ve seen a large range of players win and play well at this event. Anyone from Kevin Na, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, and Cameron Tringale has won and/or played great over the years here.
Bryson DeChambeau: $11,800 (+$1,262)
Last Ownership: 5.2%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 60th APP | 50th ATG | 5th PTT
Bryson DeChambeau is an obvious pick this week in both formats coming off his US Open victory. With only 5.2% owning him in GPPs through that victory, Bryson will see a big jump up in ownership as the clear favorite to win this week.
Per my model, Bryson stands about 11% chance to win the Shriners with Webb Simpson the closest behind him at under 7%. DeChambeau is far and away the highest salary player this week, but they just cannot price these top guys high enough given their upside.
Obviously, he’s by far the best driver of the ball in this field. However, given his unique driving and putting abilities, it makes him even more valuable at this event.
Webb Simpson: $11,000 (+$244)
Last Ownership: 19.5%
SG Ranking: 48th OTT | 20th APP | 11th ATG | 6th PTT
Webb is an intriguing pick this week with Bryson sitting at the top grabbing a bunch of attention. Very few lineups will attempt to make it work with both options, so be sure to diversify where you can.
Simpson has played great at this event over the years and has been especially well (without winning) as of late. Webb’s short game is and has been extremely good for some time while combining straight driving and elite iron play.
Webb has finished T12 or better in five of his last six events while gaining nearly seven strokes on the field on average over that timespan. To put it simply, there are certain courses in which Webb, and similar players, tend to succeed. This is one of them as evident from his play here as well as the data muting out the driving and stressing irons with short game potential.
Harris English: $9,700 (+$639)
Last Ownership: 13%
SG Ranking: 64th OTT | 44th APP | 1st ATG | 9th PTT
Harris English continues to be the model of consistency across the PGA Tour since the restart and continues to be under-owned in the mid-teens each week. English missed the first cut of the restart and has since finished inside the top-40 in every event. Through those nine events, he’s also finished inside the top-20 seven times.
English is pretty average in terms of length and accuracy off the tee which puts him smack dab in the middle of this field in strokes gained. As you move throughout his game, though, he continues to impress.
As the leader in chipping and overall short game in this field, we should expect English to shoot a few strokes under par each day to keep him in contention throughout like he has seemingly every week.
English is getting a higher price tag as he continues to succeed, but even in this range, you aren’t going to find many as consistent.
Russell Henley: $8,400 (+$160)
Last Ownership: 11.9%
SG Ranking: 71st OTT | 1st APP | 18th ATG | 69th PTT
You’re reading the header correctly. Russell Henley is the top iron player in this field, per my model. Not many would know or recognize that Henley has finished inside the top-40 of eight of his last ten events largely on the back of his iron play.
Henley has lost strokes on approach in one event since the beginning of February, his first event in the restart. The biggest hang-up for Henley has been the putter, but even that has improved as of late as he’s gained 6.6 strokes putting over his last three events that include two top-10 finishes.
With an easier driving environment, Henley’s elite iron play should give him plenty of birdie looks throughout the week making him a must-play at this price tag.
Cameron Davis: $8,200 (+$576)
Last Ownership: 23.1%
SG Ranking: 18th OTT | 43rd APP | 25th ATG | 15th PTT
Cameron Davis doesn’t have the long term form that someone like Harris English has had, but his recent run of events makes it seem like he could have a similar profile.
The biggest thing standing out against Davis was his four missed cuts to begin the restart. However, he gained strokes in three of those events while only missing those four cuts by a combined five strokes.
Since then, Davis has finished T36 or better in all five events along with three finishes at T15 or better. As you can tell from the rankings above, he’s simply done everything well. That gives players like Davis the leeway to struggle in a certain area as the rest of his game can keep him under par.
Davis has rightfully had outrageously high ownership in the smaller field events so I expect that to come down a bit given the tougher field this week. Nonetheless, he’s a must-play in this range considering he’s still about $600 underpriced.
Harold Varner III: $7,500 (+$895)
Last Ownership: 40.9%
SG Ranking: 16th OTT | 5th APP | 14th ATG | 95th PTT
It was a bit surprising to see HV3 make the list for the first time in a while, but when combing through the data, it becomes a bit more clear.
Varner ranks inside the top-16 across all strokes gained categories beyond putting. Varner has gained strokes in nine of his last thirteen events despite losing strokes putting in all but three of those events.
Surely, that does not inspire confidence in an event where he is going to need to putt well around TPC Summerlin. However, if he can somehow get on the right side of highly variant putting statistics, he’ll have a good chance to compete at the top of the board.
As one of the straightest hitters on tour off the tee along with an elite iron game, Varner should get around Summerlin in decent shape, especially at this $7,500 price.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Cameron Tringale: $6,900 (+$877) | Henrik Norlander: $6,900 (+$746) | Sepp Straka: $6,500 (+$644) | Jason Dufner: $6,400 (+$545) | Martin Laird: $6,400 (+$531) | Talor Gooch: $6,800 (+$497)
Feel free to reach out on Twitter (@realfrankbrank) with any questions or sample lineups you may have. Below are some sample lineups of my own.