PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: Country Club of Jackson
The Country Club of Jackson features hard to hit fairways with easy to hit greens. Historically, off the tee play matters quite a bit less because the field is generally weaker and tighter fairways takes away advantages to straighter hitters.
On the flip side, putting absorbs most or all of what is lost in the driving. Again, that’s not surprising given the weaker field consisting of better putters, in general. Also, greens are hit here at almost 70% in regulation. That gives plenty of chances for the better putters in the field to shine.
No excess value.
NOTE: There is something to be said about Will Zalatoris, who hasn’t finished worse than 19th across the Korn Ferry and PGA Tour since the restart. Given my approach to modeling and his small sample of shotlink data on the PGA Tour, it’s impossible for me to come up with a fair price. That being said, he can and should be used in at least some of your lineups.
Zach Johnson: $9,600 (+$284)
Last Ownership: 3.2%
SG Ranking: 67th OTT | 24th APP | 70th ATG | 2nd PTT
Playing Zach Johnson at this price was a bit surprising to me until I dug through the data a bit more. Johnson’s obvious flaw is not being able to drive it as long as the other top players in the world.
However, his length and overall driving should not matter as much as the iron play and putting this week. Hence, there’s a small bit of value in playing ZJ in GPPs this week.
Johnson has finished inside T8 or better in two of his last three events and has gained 4.4 strokes on the field on average in his last five events. The source has been improved iron play and putting, which are our targets this week at Jackson.
I cannot imagine many will roster ZJ given his price and typical lower upside, but the recent success in his play certainly interests me.
Si Woo Kim: $8,400 (+$229)
Last Ownership: 4.2%
SG Ranking: 47th OTT | 28th APP | 10th ATG | 47th PTT
Historically, Si Woo Kim is one of the highest variance players in golf given his ability to miss any cut while simultaneously being able to win any event. I’m here to tell you that the narrative is dying off. Although, I do still think this is more of a GPP play given his typical low ownership and variant results
.Kim has only missed one cut, the incredibly tough US Open, since the Travelers in late June while finishing T18 or better in four of those events. Everything has improved for Kim in that time from ball striking to chipping to putting.
Again, this is more of a GPP play since I can’t be certain his new found low variance golf is for real, but he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on going forward in this price range.
Cameron Davis: $8,100 (+$1,926)
Last Ownership: 32%
SG Ranking: 19th OTT | 27th APP | 36th ATG | 23rd PTT
Davis is the worst priced golfer in this field by a wide margin. Davis’ four missed cuts to begin the restart by a combined five strokes has grossly mispriced him in the betting market and the DK pricing generally follows that market.
Davis is not only one of the best birdie makers on tour, but he is well above average in this field across every strokes gained metric. At 36th or better in every category, it’s difficult for Davis to truly struggle as at least three parts of his game generally work for him in a given round.
Although he doesn’t do anything particularly great, when you add up all of his skills, he rates out as one of the better golfers in this field. You’ll have to eat the ownership, as we did last time with Davis, to take advantage of this huge misprice.
Talor Gooch: $7,400 (+$528)
Last Ownership: 19.9%
SG Ranking: 35th OTT | 47th APP | 72nd ATG | 20th PTT
In his last event, Gooch burned about 20% of the GPP lineups by missing the cut. That’s opened up an opportunity to play him now in this field. Besides the chipping, as you can see above, there isn’t much to worry about with Gooch. He’s certainly had more variant results than usual since the restart, but when he makes the cut, he generally plays well over the weekend.
The other thing to note about the chipping is that he should be hitting at least 70% of these big Jackson greens, so he shouldn’t be too bothered by losing strokes on this field otherwise.
Gooch is a boom-or-bust play that you should take advantage of across your GPP lineups this week.
Cameron Tringale: $7,300 (+$1,301)
Last Ownership: 18.1%
SG Ranking: 91st OTT | 3rd APP | 27th ATG | 41st PTT
Tringale continues to be a great low salary option in DK pricing. As an elite iron player for this field, he should have plenty of opportunity to make birdies in this weak field.
Sure, he’s had some tendencies to miss cuts recently, but he’s finished T30 or better in every event where he’s made the cut since February including some tougher tracks like the Genesis and Honda. Not to mention, he’s only lost strokes once on approach in that time frame. The putter has been hot, as well, gaining strokes in six of his last seven events on the greens.
The big hiccup with Tringale is he’s a much shorter hitter than most on the Tour. Given that we can mute out a chunk of off-the-tee play this week, he can make up strokes in all the other areas we care about.
Tringale’s ownership was a bit of a shock at Safeway, but since he missed the cut, we could find an opportunity to grab him low this week.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Henrik Norlander: $6,700 (+$1,307) | Martin Laird: $6,100 (+$1,241) | Chris Baker: $6,300 (+$1,175) | Wesley Bryan: $6,300 (+$1,082)