PGA DFS is back! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: Kapalua Plantation Course
The official course preview by @friedeggpaulie can be found here.
$10,000+ Range
Dustin Johnson: $11,000 (+$314)
Last Ownership: 33.4%
SG Ranking: 5th OTT | 2nd APP | 13th ATG | 17th PTT
You won’t be alone on DJ this week as he continues his ascension to the top of the golf world. Having spent the better part of the year struggling massively with his ball striking, Dustin Johnson quickly turned it around in the back end of the 2020 season.
He comes into the Tournament of Champions as the clear best golfer in the world at a course that massively benefits his skill set of bombing balls off the tee and particular touch around the greens.
Though “recent play” is relatively useless after the long layoff, DJ finished first or second in seven of his last ten tournaments to finish out last season, including winning the late stage Masters.
Simply put, DraftKings has a hard time setting the top players high enough; hence, it’s entirely beneficial to stack a couple together and find value down the board.
Bryson DeChambeau: $10,200 (+$1,075)
Last Ownership: 17.7%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 20th APP | 24th ATG | 11th PTT
DJ won’t be the only one trying to overpower Kapalua as Bryson DeChambeau still exists as the single best driver of the ball in golf. Bryson’s accuracy, at times, can get away from him, but with Kapalua’s massively wide fairways, it’s certainly not a concern. Driving ability, particularly with distance, gets about a 9% boost in my model this week while all other metrics are about average or slightly below average to the average PGA Tour course.
There’s some concern surrounding Bryson’s touch on wedge shots which proved to be a bit of a weakness last season after his bulk. Nonetheless, his underrated putting skills could potentially make up for that deficiency on these easy, slower greens.
DeChambeau, per my model, is the second-best player in this field at this course and is priced at the bottom of this range. Again, you won’t be alone on Bryson this week, but he still provides value to your lineup.
$9,000 Range
No excess value.
$8,000 Range
Daniel Berger: $8,600 (+$522)
Last Ownership: 19.5%
SG Ranking: 24th OTT | 4th APP | 28th ATG | 3rd PTT
You don’t need me to preach to you about Daniel Berger as I have seemingly every week for the past six or seven months. All you need to know is he’s one of the best and most consistent golfers in the world priced as a mediocre one in a 40-man tournament.
The main thing playing Berger allows you is to combine some lower end guys with two at the top of the board this week.
$7,000 Range
Jason Kokrak: $7,300 (+$932)
Last Ownership: 9.3%
SG Ranking: 7th OTT | 25th APP | 35th ATG | 8th PTT
Kokrak finished off last season with a few wild swings of results, including winning at the CJ Cup, finishing T17 or better in six of nine events, all while missing three of his last five cuts.
It’s safe to say that a full four-round event, like this one, should benefit Kokrak when or if he gets hot with the putter. Granted, he’s a great driver of the ball in terms of distance and accuracy, but his extreme swings with the putter tend to determine whether he has a higher up finish or a missed cut.
$6,000 Range
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Richy Werenski: $6,000 (+$1,100) | Martin Laird: $6,400 (+$773)
