Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: PGA West Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course
The main features of the stadium course are similar to last week. Shorter length, plenty of short irons, and emphasis on putting. On the majority of holes, even the shorter hitters on Tour will have mid or short irons into greens, which leads to a lot of birdie putts.
The result tends to be an emphasis on making birdie putts after a close short iron approach. In general, you’ll want to target the better approach players and putters in the field, as strokes-gained approach gets a 12% boost and strokes-gained putting gets 5% boost in my model this week.
No excess value, but it is important to note that losing Rahm at the top of this field has created value to the point where you will want to play guys at the top of this board. See the sample lineups below for a few examples.
Russell Henley $9,000 (+$1,149)
Last Ownership: 15.5%
SG Ranking: 33rd OTT | 1st APP | 14th ATG | 87th PTT
Henley is only getting a $300 boost from last week, where he finished 11th and gained strokes at Sony on all four major categories (tee, approach, chipping, and putting). As I’ve stated going back to last year, Henley is still the best iron player in the field and continues to gain strokes in that area.
Henley will certainly need to putt better to win, but at $9,000 and plenty of birdie looks again this week, he’s impossible to pass up. He’s made ten of his last eleven cuts and finished T37 or better in every one of those made cuts.
Russell Henley remains as close to set-it-and-forget-it for your lineups as one can be on the PGA Tour.
Sam Burns $8,300 (+$59)
Last Ownership: 32.4%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 56th APP | 133rd ATG | 32nd PTT
At $8,300, it’s well worth rostering Sam Burns in your lineup as the best driver in the field. Driving is the most consistent, tangible stat on the PGA Tour, and you can certainly count on Burns gaining plenty of strokes off-the-tee.
Burns isn’t the best approach player, but he should still gain strokes on this field, while his putting is a strength, as well. On average, he would gain over a stroke on this field on the greens over four rounds.
There isn’t a ton of excess value here, but the consistency of Burns’ game provides you a reliable source of points. He made fourteen of eighteen cuts to finish out last season with eleven top-40s.
Si Woo Kim $8,200 (+$730)
Last Ownership: 8.7%
SG Ranking: 14th OTT | 36th APP | 6th ATG | 61st PTT
Si Woo Kim’s transformation into one of the more consistent mid-range players on the PGA Tour remains fascinating. Kim has gone from a player who would pop and win every couple of years while seemingly missing every other cut to missing just two cuts since the end of June.
The way he’s done so is by greatly improving his ball striking. Si Woo ranks 36th or better across the three tee-to-green categories this week and gained strokes in every category last week on his way to a T25 finish.
T25 with a bunch of birdies would be plenty good enough to make him worth $8,200, under 9% ownership, with a chance to pop and win at any time if the putter gets hot.
Zach Johnson $7,900 (+$1,422)
Last Ownership: 11.9%
SG Ranking: 108th OTT | 9th APP | 1022nd ATG | 2nd PTT
For the same reasons I liked ZJ last week, I like him again this week. Sure, last week didn’t work out quite the way I expected as he squeaked into the cut but didn’t have any nuclear low rounds on the weekend.
That being said, he continued to succeed in the areas (approach and putting) where I’d prefer him to succeed coming into this week. The difference between a T30 finish for ZJ last week, which would have been well worth his price tag, was his four lost strokes on chipping.
Given that Johnson is typically an average or even above average Tour player around the green, I wouldn’t expect that to continue. Despite finishing T62, Johnson was still well within the top-20 in approach play at Sony. If he does that again, he should have a much higher up finish.
Cameron Tringale $7,400 (+$1,317)
Last Ownership: 7.7%
SG Ranking: 97th OTT | 18th APP | 45th ATG | 13th PTT
Cameron Tringale is becoming a staple for us in these smaller event fields, where we can underplay off-the-tee play. Though he has improved on his tee play as of late, we shouldn’t exactly expect that going forward.
Tringale, as you can see above, fits the Stadium Course quite well. He’s an elite mid to short iron player while gaining quite a few strokes putting. His results dating back to last summer are also favorable.
Tringale made six of his last eight cuts to finish out last season while finishing T37 or better in all of those made cuts. He also finished third at the 3M in July and at the RSM, his most recent tournament.
He’s gained strokes putting in each of his last eight events, which he’ll need again this week for a higher up finish. The longer layoff does give some pause here, but at such a cheap price tag in a GPP lineup, he’s worth the risk if the irons and putter continue to pop.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at in GPPs. However, I’ll list out my best-perceived options below.
Cameron Percy $6,100 (+$1,711) | Chesson Hadley $6,700 (+$679) | Brice Garnett $6,600 (+$627)