Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: Kiawah Island
The official course preview can be found here.
We don’t have any data on Kiawah Island since we haven’t seen this course since 2012. I will be rating this as the “tour average” course in all aspects. My general strategy will be to prioritize ball striking and hope the putting variance plays out in our favor.
No excess value.
This is a strange week for the best players in the world. Kiawah will allow for high variance scores and each guy in this range comes with question marks. I feel much more comfortable, especially in GPPs, stacking guys in the next range.
Viktor Hovland: $9,300 (+$1,153)
4th OTT | 6th APP | 80th ATG | 33rd PTT
It’s difficult to say there’s a better, more reliable golfer than Viktor Hovland right now. As the single best ball striker (driving plus approach) in my model this week, he’s impossible to pass up at $9,300 with the uncertainty at the top of the board.
Hovland has missed one cut since March of last year and has gained strokes driving in every event since August. Hovland is also coming off back to back third place finishes where he gained strokes in every category.
One criticism of Hovland is his usual below average short game. However, he’s gained four strokes putting in each of the last two tournaments.
Daniel Berger: $8,700 (+$178)
12th OTT | 10th APP | 90th ATG | 26th PTT
Daniel Berger seemed a few steps away from his elite play to end last season at the start of the new year. That changed when he won at Pebble Beach, grabbed a ninth place finish at The Players, and a quiet third place at last week’s Byron Nelson.
In terms of ball striking, Berger has gained strokes on driving and approach in every event since his recent win. Of the top players in this field, Berger is also one of the better putters. He’s gained strokes putting in six of his last seven tournaments.
Berger is one of the few guys in this range that actually has win equity as well as a lot of solid recent play.
Louis Oosthuizen: $8,000 (+$527)
66th OTT | 34th APP | 39th ATG | 1st PTT
It’s a major, so you know we’re chasing Oosty again. He’s not only the number one putter in my model, but he’s a great player in these high wind situations.
With his injury concerns, Louis hasn’t played in a ton of tournaments, but he tends to play well when he does. He’s made six straight cuts finishing T29 or better in five of those events.
He hasn’t been blowing us away with ball striking like the guys above, but he’s gaining in all four categories with lights-out putting.
Charley Hoffman: $7,300 (+$961)
31st OTT | 7th APP | 38th ATG | 50th PTT
Charley Hoffman is living in our lineups at this point, and rightfully so. He ranks 6th tee-to-green in my model this week and has 41 golfers ahead of him in terms of salary.
Hoffman has missed one cut in his last thirteen tournaments that include nine top-30 finishes. Lately, he’s been one of the best iron players on tour, gaining nearly 25 strokes on approach in his last five events.
Not to mention if the wind picks up, Hoffman only gets better relative to the field. He certainly has a higher variance putter than some of the guys mentioned above, but he’s been good there lately, too, having gained strokes putting in four of his last five measured events.
Corey Conners: $7,600 (+$476)
9th OTT | 3rd APP | 100th ATG | 83rd PTT
Due to Conners’ low price, yet again, you can get the number one ball striker (Hovland) and the number three ball striker stacked into the same lineup.
Conners ranks 9th in driving and 3rd on approach in this elite field. The reason he’s priced so far down is his lackluster short game. For example, he gained 8.1 strokes in ball striking while losing 5.4 strokes on short game in his last tournament.
When he’s gained strokes on the greens, though, he almost guarantees himself a top-10 finish with his ball striking. If the variance swings his way in terms of short game, Conners has a real chance to win his first major.
Ryan Palmer: $6,900 (+$47)
21st OTT | 62nd APP | 106th ATG | 69th PTT
Given our lineup construction strategy this week, Ryan Palmer is the only $6k range player I’d target his week. Palmer is surprisingly long off-the-tee with an above average iron game. Those qualities have added up to incredible consistency.
Palmer made 19 of his last 20 cuts in a stretch that includes nine top-20 finishes. Like Hoffman, when the wind blows, his skill set relative to the field abilities only improves.
For the record, I don’t think Ryan Palmer stands a good chance to win this event, but his odds are certainly higher than anyone else in this price range.
Below is a sample lineup to give an idea on what construction we are favoring this week.