Avoid groupthink and build PGA DFS cash lineups with a different strategy in mind based on hours of @friedeggpaulie’s research and his deep knowledge of the players and professional golf!!
What can you expect from this PGA DFS article every week?
- I focus solely on DraftKings’ main slate as that is where most of the play resides and also where the biggest edge lies. I will be providing the top cash game plays by salary tier. You can mix and match these players to build your cash lineups.
Strategy for the Week for Cash:
With a field of only 88 players and a cut of top 50 and ties:
- We can expect a high 6/6 percentage because of the fact that 15 of the 88 players are amateurs or past champions who don’t have a chance to contend (or even a good chance to make the cut). So we basically are looking at a player pool of 70-75 players. This creates plenty of players who have a low or medium salary and have a very good chance to make the cut.
- As such, we need to make sure we have a lineup that has consistency to have a good chance to get 6/6 through but if not we need to make sure if we have 5/6 that we have players who can make a bunch of birdies.
- The goal is not to finish 1st in cash games, but merely to give yourself the best chance to finish in the top half and double your money.
- To me this week, we have 4 clear locks who have large value. Even though I normally only give 2 players away as locks, this week, I feel so strongly about these 4 players that I want to make sure that you play all 4 of them. This makes lineup construction very simple for cash games as I only list a total of 9 players below.
- LOCKS: Paul Casey, Will Zalatoris, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas
Let’s jump into the Cash Game Player Pool for this week:
- Justin Thomas $10,600
- His record of 4th, 12th, 17th, 22nd and 39th may not fly off the page but if we dig deep into these finishes we see that he struck the ball really well but just struggled with the putter
- Thomas ranks 1st in the field in Approach which is the most important stat of the week
- He also is 1st in birdies and 5th around the green
- Comes into event with a lot of confidence after capturing The Players Championship last month.
- $10,600 is too cheap for him as he rates out similar to DJ and Rahm both of whom are much more expensive this week. I’ll take the salary savings here.
- Jordan Spieth $9,400
- The first thing we have to realize about Spieth this week is that DraftKings released salaries for the Masters prior to last week’s event. So we get salary savings with Spieth as he would have been $10,800 had pricing not come out until after Valero. When we are trying to soak up as much value as possible, he is a clear play this week.
- Made all 7 cuts at this event including 4 top 3 finishes (winning in 2015)
- 7th in the field in approach and 8th around the green
- Gained at least 4 strokes on approach in 5 of last 6 events
- Gained strokes off the tee in 4 of last 5 events, which is first time he has done that since 2018 (aka pre-slump)
- If we combine his current ball striking, his well-known short game, his love of Augusta and sky-high confidence, Spieth is a clear play at a reduced price this week
- Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100
- Made his last 5 cuts at this event
- 18th or better in each of his last 6 starts
- In each of the last 4 events, he gained strokes off the tee, around the green and putting.
- #1 putter in the field
- Paul Casey $7,700
- 12th or better in his last 6 stroke play events gaining strokes on approach in each event
- One of only 4 players in the field who is top 12 in driving distance and approach
- Made 5 of last 6 cuts here including 3 top 6 finishes
- Adam Scott $7,600
- Made his last 11 cuts at The Masters including 4 top 10s (winning in 2013)
- Missed 2 cuts on PGA Tour in last 2 years combined
- Joaquin Niemann $7,400
- Quietly 5th in driving distance and 6th off the tee
- Top 20 in birdies, approach and putting
- Gained strokes off the tee in 22 of last 23 events
- Gained strokes on approach in 8 of last 9 events
- Hasn’t missed a cut since August (15 events)
- Will Zalatoris $7,300
- Mr. Consistency, Will Zalatoris, has only missed 1 cut in his last 30 professional events.
- 22nd or better in 10 of last 13 stroke play events
- 4th in approach, 4th in Par 5 scoring
- Gained strokes on approach in every PGA Tour event in the last year except for 1 (Pebble Beach lost 0.5 strokes)
- Showed he isn’t afraid of the big stage of a Major as he finished 6th at the US Open last year
- At a price of $7,300, I see him having a very high probability of making the cut and most likely finishing top 25 this week which will more than pay off this cheap salary.
- Corey Conners $6,900
- Conners really has blossomed in 2021 ranking top 10 off the tee, on approach and in birdies.
- 10th and 46th here in his two professional starts
- Gained strokes ballstriking (off the tee plus approach) in all but 1 event in the last 13 months
- Game is trending in the right direction as he has finished 3rd, 7th and 14th in his last 3 stroke play events.
- Matt Kuchar $6,800
- His game has been rejuvenated with a 3rd place finish at the Dell Match Play and a 12th place finish at Valero. These finishes were not priced into the salary for Kuchar which is why we see a bunch of value on him.
- Prior to his MC here in November (during his slump), he made his last 10 cuts at The Masters including 4 top 8 finishes and only once finishing worse than 28th.
- Gained strokes in all 4 facets of the game last week, which shows me that his game is back to firing on all cylinders.
- He isn’t going to get you a ton of birdies, but he does bring elite consistency and knows how to handle Major pressure, especially in firm and fast conditions.
Did you miss my Masters Event Preview? Now you didn’t… Dominate PGA DFS!