Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your PGA GPP lineups!!
The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
The official course preview can be found here.
Simply put, we don’t have any data on this golf course since this is its first PGA Tour event. I will be rating this as the “tour average” course in all regards until we get at least one tournament played.
Bryson DeChambeau $11,200 (+$1,476)
1st OTT | 21st APP | 2nd ATG | 3rd PTT
There’s some thought that TPC Craig Ranch could play similar to Quail Hollow. If that’s the case, you’ll definitely want some Bryson shares this week considering there’s one elite player that can drive it anywhere in his stratosphere (Jon Rahm) since Dustin Johnson withdrew.
DeChambeau thought he missed the cut last week at Quail Hollow, and it was a miracle he didn’t considering he lost nearly seven strokes to the field on approach in the first two rounds.
He was able to play well enough on the weekend, though, to secure a 9th place finish despite losing 5.5 strokes to the field on approach. That being said, he was able to make up those strokes in other ways having gained strokes off-the-tee, chipping, and putting in all four rounds.
The last eleven tournaments in which Bryson DeChambeau has gained strokes on approach, his worst finish is 8th. Let’s hope he does so this week because there’s a decent chance he wins if that happens.
Matthew Fitzpatrick: $9,500 (+$328)
6th OTT | 68th APP | 17th ATG | 1st PTT
I’ll preface this with the opinion that there’s a lot to like about Will Zalatoris this week, especially considering the DJ withdraw, but I have a bit more value with Matthew Fitzpatrick.
Fitz is the number one putter in this field by a decent margin. If the winds stays down and TPC Craig Ranch plays fairly easy, you’ll want someone who can drain some putts. Fitz hasn’t lost a meaningful amount of strokes putting since the US Open in September.
Having lost strokes on approach in his last three events, you’d want more consistency with the iron play; however, his finishes are nothing to scoff at.
In his last six events, Fitzpatrick’s worst finish is 34th at the Masters and the five other events were 11th or better. He’s actually below average in distance, but his accuracy off-the-tee has gained him a ton of strokes in that timespan.
If the iron play is just decent, he’s got a real shot to win this week considering the field strength.
No excess value.
There’s really nothing to like in this range that you can’t get in the $7k range below. The vast majority of this $8k range is either players that haven’t performed at all lately or are overpriced due to some recent play.
The chances of picking a winner or top-5 finish out of this range isn’t worth the salary when you can find multiple guys below them that increase your odds of doing so.
Doug Ghim: $7,500 (+$117)
28th OTT | 4th APP | 49th ATG | 120th PTT
Doug Ghim is the one guy you are almost forced into playing this week. Ghim is one of the best ball strikers in this field, ranking 10th in my model in strokes gained tee-to-green.
Although he’s coming off a missed cut at the Valspar, Ghim has gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach in four straight events. He hasn’t lost strokes on approach in ten straight events.
He’s not bad around the greens, either, but the putter is putrid. Ghim has lost strokes putting in six straight tournaments and has averaged nearly a stroke lost per tournament on the green for his career. However, with the randomness in the stat alone, perhaps he can luckily swing over to the positive side for once.
Joseph Bramlett: $6,700 (+$93)
39th OTT | 66th APP | 14th ATG | 132nd PTT
Sticking with the theme of ball strikers who can’t putt, enter Joseph Bramlett. Bramlett ranks 29th in my model this week tee-to-green and a shockingly bad 132nd putting. Hopefully with greens that no one is really familiar, the putting skill gap will somewhat reduce.
Bramlett is coming off a missed cut last week where he finished one off the cut line. He made his previous six of seven cuts and has been about an average PGA Tour ball striker. It’s not like we’re getting an elite player for $6,700, but I think we’d all take an average finish in this price range.
Below is a sample lineup to give an idea on what construction we are favoring this week.