Learn about the course for ATT Pebble Beach and what types of golfers are likely to succeed on it for PGA DFS.
Before jumping into the details of this week’s PGA Tour Event, I wanted to mention a timeline for all PGA DFS items that you can expect each and every week from Frank and myself:
- Monday: Course/Event Preview
- Tuesday: Cash article, GPP article, Cheat Sheet, PGA DFS Stream,
- Wednesday: Chat room (8pm EST) to answer lineup questions
Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s event:
Event: ATT Pebble Beach
Dates: Thursday February 11th through Sunday February 14th
Courses (2): Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill
Field: 156 players
Cut: 65 and ties (after 36 holes)
Past Winners: N Taylor (2020), Mickelson (2019), Potter (2018), Spieth (2017), V Taylor (2016), Snedeker (2015)
- Thursday-Friday: 3pm-6pm EST (Golf Channel) plus PGA Tour Live
- Saturday: 1pm-3pm EST (Golf Channel), 3pm-6pm EST (CBS) plus PGA Tour Live
- Sunday: 1pm-3pm EST (Golf Channel), 3pm-6:30pm EST (CBS) plus PGA Tour Live
What’s Different this year due to COVID:
- Only 2 courses used instead of 3
- No pro-am event (aka only pros playing this year)
- Cut now made after 36 holes instead of 54
- Each player will play each of the courses once over the course of the first 2 days. For the final 2 rounds, players will only be playing Pebble Beach. In past years, players would rotate across the 3 courses for rounds 1-3 and then play Pebble Beach on the final day.
- Since 3 of the 4 rounds are on Pebble, we will be focusing our handicapping on that.
- Pebble Beach: Par 72 6,816 yards
- 4 Par 3s (183,100,209,203)
- 4 Par 5s (531, 525, 587, 525)
- Par 5 scoring is going to be key as 3 of these will be reachable by the majority of the field. In particular, both par 5s on the front 9 average above a 47% birdie or better rate. You have to birdie or eagle those holes.
- 10 Par 4s (6 < 410 yards, 1 410-450 yards , 3 450+ yards)
- The 6 par 4s that play under 410 yards will leave a lot of shots between 100-125 yards into the green and good looks at birdie.
- 8th hole plays at 420 yards but requires an iron or 3 wood off the tee leaving an approach of 175-200 yards over the ocean.
- The 3 par 4s that play 450+ are not easy particularly holes 9 and 10 which can require long irons into the green
- Weather in this area can change at a moments notice going from calm and sunny to windy and wet
- Off the Tee:
- There is less of an emphasis on Off the Tee this week than normal as it only accounts for 11% of strokes gained amongst top finishers historically. The reason for this is that the course is short but really can’t be overpowered which means that everyone is hitting tee shots in the same area and on the short par 4s that often means less than driver for the long hitters.
- The rough this time of year is not that bad which means that players will be able to recover from tee shots that just miss the fairway. There is a lot of water and out of bounds on the course so you can’t be extremely wild off the tee.
- One thing to note is that we are right on the ocean so the ball will not fly as far as we see in normal weeks on Tour.
- Approach Shots:
- This will be one of the most important stats of the week. In particular, you will see the largest distribution of approach shots around 100-125 yards and beyond 200 yards. Approach accounts for 39% of strokes gained among top finishers historically.
- The 100-125 yard range is prevalent on the 6 short par 4s.
- The 200+ yard range potentially comes into play on 3-4 par 5s, 2 par 3s and 3 of the par 4s.
- It can get windy here at times so players who can handle the wind have a slight edge.
- I expect slightly harder pins than normal for this event since there is no Pro-Am portion of the event and they aren’t worried about pace of play as much.
- The greens this week are small Poa Annua greens which are about 1 foot slower than normal Tour speed.
- I expect pin locations to be a bit more difficult than in year’s past because there are no amateurs playing this year.
- Putting is one of the most important stats this week. Putting accounts for 37% of the strokes gained in this event among top finishers.
- Around the Green:
- Around the Green typically accounts for only 13% of the strokes gained so there will not be a large emphasis on it.
What type of player typically succeeds here?
- I see one clear path to victory at this course:
- Player who is above average from 100-125 and 200+ yards combined with above average putting with a preference to Poa Annua greens.
What areas of a player’s game will be tested the most this week?
- Largest emphasis:
- Strokes Gained Approach (highest emphasis 100-125 and 200+ yards)
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Smaller emphasis:
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie Rate
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
Check back in on Tuesday for the Cash article, GPP article, Cheat Sheet and DFS Stream.