With no games being played, our attention has shifted to *how* we build lineups as opposed to whom we’re putting in them.
I have shared some insight into how I select my goaltenders and my value forwards in recent weeks. Today I’m going to share some of my favorite stats from a player level that help me determine which forwards, in general, to use.
Let’s dive in.
This one is simple. It is a measure of how many shots a player attempts at the net on a per 60 basis. I generally want that number to be quite high, particularly if I’m playing on DK (update: I’m playing on DK). Why? Because a player can have a poor night offensively and still come up with a good score. Five shots, thanks to a couple garbage ones hitting the net just after crossing the blueline, and we still end up with 10+ fantasy points from our guy. This is big in any lineup build but especially cash, where you’re chasing high floors.
iXG/60, iSCF/60 or iHDCF/60
Shot attempts are great. Expected goals and scoring chances might be even better. While shots are more reliable and help you chase a floor, the ceiling isn’t as high if Player X can’t generate chances in tight. You’re much more likely to score in the slot area, of course, so if a player shoots a lot but they’re all coming from the far wing you’re probably not getting more than 10-12 points from a guy. One goal (and the shot that comes with it) is worth 10 on DK. You need the production to get ceiling games.
In terms of stars, I have an elite chance generator like Auston Matthews, Alex Ovechkin or David Pastrnak in my lineup almost every night.
In the mid-tier, Brady Tkachuk and Timo Meier are two of my favorites.
Down below, names like Blake Coleman, Alex Tuch, Denis Gurianov and Joel Armia often find their way onto my rosters – especially if any of them are getting top-6 usage.
Anything can happen in a given game, so there’s no guarantee a player due for regression hits it on the slate you’re playing. That said, shooting percentage is factored into my decision making process. Simply put, I prefer to buy low as opposed to high and shooting percentage can help me identify guys to target/avoid.
If Alex Killorn, let’s say, has scored eight goals over his last 10 games despite only generating 20 shots (40 SH%), I’m probably not jumping on the train. He’s simply not a good bet to continue performing at that level and I’m not making it on a guy who’s ultra chalk to boot.
That’d be kind of like putting money on New Jersey to win in Toronto *and* as favorites because they’ve won a few games of late. They’re still probably not going to get the job done, and there’s not nearly enough of a payoff if they do.
On the flip side, a player whose shooting percentage has gone in the gutter of late is likely to be less owned than he should be.
For example, if Tyler Seguin has 40 shots (and 30 chances) over the last 10 games but no goals and just four assists to show for it, people will not be flocking to him. Quite the opposite. His price has probably dropped too.
That’s a perfect time to jump on him. He’s still shooting and generating chances at comparable rates to elite players, and he’ll be rewarded should that continue. You’d also stand to benefit more when he does because of the ownership.
I’m not at all saying to fade everyone on a hot streak and play only guys in slumps, but I have absolutely no problem playing guys in the midst of a shooting slump if they’re still generating shots and chances at high clips. I also have no problem fading a scorching hot player if their production is a byproduct of an inflated SH% as opposed to strong shot and chance generation.
With regards to where you can find this information, every stat I’ve mentioned in this article comes from the great, user-friendly, site NaturalStatTrick.com.