The Stanley Cup Finals continue tonight in Edmonton. Here’s your complete DFS Showdown breakdown for Game Three!
First of all, I want to revisit Strategy Session #21 – DraftKings Showdown Rules.
I’ve gone back and updated all of my rules. Only one was nixed, so six remain:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (87.7% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (84.4% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (95.4% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92.8% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars, Game Three
- 8:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Tampa Bay 55% | Total: 5.0
Swing and a miss for me in game two. I faded Tampa’s top line and paid the price for it.
Well, guess what? I’m doing it again. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but Dallas has some real nice shutdown pieces that make life hell for their opponent’s top skaters.
The Lightning are controlling 75% of the Corsi share with the line of Tyler Johnson, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn on the ice. This is the trio I’ll be overexposed to again tonight on Tampa’s side.
For Dallas, it’s that top line of Seguin, Benn, and Radulov that is the target on “home” ice. As far as mini-stack exposure, any combo of those three is at the top of my list tonight.
Pavelski/Gurianov continue to look great together, and it seems like it’s only a matter of time before another monster game comes from these two.
One more note. It may not happen this game, but there’s a decent chance that we see Steven Stamkos back in the lineup at some point this next week. When he returns, it’s likely to be a surprise that’s only discovered during warm-ups. When that day comes, be sure to cram as many Stamkos shares as you can into lineups, as it’s likely you’ll hold big leverage with an elite scorer holding low single-digit ownership.
Hedman is the only defenseman I’ll have CAPT exposure to. With Jan Ruuta entering the lineup, he projects to pile up a few blocked shots, making for an interesting low-owned one-off. Rutta is also slated to get loads of minutes playing alongside of Victor Hedman.
Heiskanan is still the top defender for the Stars, with Lindell and Klingberg being other high floor options.
We should see the shot count a lot closer with Dallas being the “home” team. Vasilevskiy has some more value than usual with a higher projected shot volume, and even a lower salary today.
On the contrary, Khudobin loses some value as he should see a lower number of shots, and he’s had his salary increased. I don’t see either of these two being CAPT material tonight.
CAPT pool: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov; TB – Point, Kucherov, Palat, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Hedman
Favorite mini-stacks: DAL – Benn/Seguin, Benn/Radulov, Seguin/Radulov, Pavelski/Gurianov; TB – Johnson/Cirelli, Johnson/Killorn, Cirelli/Killorn
Favorite one-offs: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Janmark, Hintz, Kiviranta, Heiskanen, Lindell, Klingberg, Khudobin; TB – Kucherov, Point, Palat, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Goodrow, Coleman, Gourde, Paquette, Hedman, Sergachev, Rutta, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy
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