Ryan revisits his NHL DFS Showdown rules and breaks down tonight’s matchup between Tampa Bay and Detroit.
Just one game in the NHL tonight. That means it’s time for some Showdown!
I’ve got data on nearly 200 NHL Showdown slates, and have developed a set of rules to follow when building lineups:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (85.6% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.9% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (87.5% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (88.1% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (97.5% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings
- 3:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Tampa Bay 74% | Total: 5.5
- Game Projections:
As you can see from my projections, I have this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers have set. While I still have Tampa with the edge, the numbers are a lot closer with Detroit on home ice, where they’ve been a much stronger team this season.
The two players that stand out as top values on the single game slate are Alex Barre-Boulet of the Lightning, and Adam Erne of the Detroit Red Wings. Erne has 19 points in 43 games this season, and will be slotting into Detroit’s top six today. Barre-Boulet finally got on the scoreboard a couple of times last week, in games where he generated 12 total shots on goal; he should still be on that top line with Palat and Point.
Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat will be the popular selections on the Showdown slate, but I personally think their ownership will be much higher than it should be, and their pricing makes it tough to fill out the rest of your lineup with anything good.
Instead, I like the middle of the lineup for Tampa, including Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, Tyler Johnson, Barclay Goodrow, Yanni Gourde, and Blake Coleman. The Cirelli/Johnson/Killorn line is priced way down, and playing one or two of these guys in lineups is a great way to start with more balance than you’d have with the top liners.
For the Red Wings, Jakub Vrana is probably the top forward, though his price tag is a bit too high for my liking in this matchup. Michael Rasmussen, who will be centering Vrana’s line, is a much better option to me for the price.
I also like Joe Veleno as a guy who is severely underpriced. He’s yet to find the scoresheet, but the 2018 first round pick will wind up priced much higher than where he’s at right now. He’s skating between two pretty talented wingers in Sam Gagner and Evgeny Svechnikov, and it’s that line that I’ll probably want the most exposure to in this matchup.
So why am I harping on value, and saving salary on the forwards I’m choosing? Three words: Victor. Freaking. Hedman. He is far and away the best defenseman on the slate, and this is a dream matchup for a player like him. I will gladly eat the chalk with Hedman, and he’s also strongly in consideration for the CAPT spot in my lineups. This guy can generate fantasy points in any number of ways: goals, assists, blocks, shots on goal…he does it all in a way that no other player on this slate comes close to, and should be considered the safest play in the pool.
I don’t love any of the other Lightning defensemen. This is a team that spreads the production around to all 18 players, and they’re all priced up because of it. From a fantasy perspective, they are very inconsistent, and probably not worth the trouble outside of MME.
The Red Wings have a couple of guys that stand out as nice values today: Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom. Both of these guys are priced a the slate minimum, and both players provide a nice floor through shots and blocks. They are both getting more and more minutes as the season wears on, and both are near the top of my list for cheap punts on the Showdown slate today.
Without much of a ceiling, Andrei Vasilevskiy is more of a cash game play for me if you see Tampa getting an easy win here. On the flip side, Jonathan Bernier is probably only a GPP play, if you find yourself making a super contrarian lineup based on a Detroit win.
Again, I see this game being much closer than odds and ownership will probably reflect, so having a Detroit heavy lineup isn’t the worst idea. Either way, I’m not in love with either of these goaltenders, and probably won’t have either in my CAPT pool.
CAPT pool: TB – Barre-Boulet, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Coleman, Hedman; DET – Vrana, Veleno, Gagner, Svechnikov
Favorite mini-stacks: TB – Killorn/Cirelli, Killorn/Johnson, Cirelli/Johnson, Gourde/Coleman; DET – Vrana/Rasmussen, Veleno/Gagner, Veleno/Svechnikov, Gagner/Svechnikov
Favorite one-offs: TB – Palat, Point, Barre-Boulet, Killorn, Cirelli, Johnson, Goodrow, Gourde, Coleman, Joseph, Hedman, Vasilevskiy; DET – Rasmussen, Vrana, Erne, Zadina, Veleno, Svechnikov, Gagner, Cholowski, Lindstrom, Bernier
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