The Stanley Cup Finals get underway tonight in Edmonton. Here’s your complete DFS Showdown breakdown for Game One!
First of all, I want to revisit Strategy Session #21 – DraftKings Showdown Rules.
I’ve gone back and updated all of my rules. Only one was nixed, so six remain:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (87.7% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (84.4% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (95.4% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92.8% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Dallas Stars @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Game One
- 7:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Tampa Bay 55% | Total: 5.0
Forwards
Just like the Islanders-Lightning series, matchups will dictate this series for me. With Tampa Bay at “home”, I’ll have a bunch of exposure to both Kucherov and Point. Although the Stars have a lot of nice shutdown players, they won’t be able to get those matchups that they’d like with Tampa having the last change. Kuch and Point will be put into the best situations possible for offensive production.
Because of the defensive ability of Dallas’ depth players, I’m going to hold off on stacking up Gourde and Coleman like I was last series against the Isles. I’ll have plenty of one-offs, but Point and Kucherov will be the basis of my Lightning exposure tonight.
For Dallas, I still like Pavelski and Gurianov together. I will surely build some Stars heavy lineups, and Pavelski-Gurianov will be the centerpiece of those lineups.
Otherwise, it’s all one-offs for me.
Defensemen
Hedman can be used at the CAPT spot. His offensive abilities are as high as I’ve ever seen right now. He seems to score every game. Huge peripheral floor. The guy’s got it all. I would absolutely consider locking Hedman into lineups here.
For Dallas, Heiskanen is the target. He just doesn’t have the consistent ceiling that Hedman brings, so he won’t be in my CAPT pool, but I love him as a one-off.
Other cheaper guys I’ll have some exposure to include McDonagh, Bogosian, Sergachev, and Lindell.
Goalies
Khudobin should absolutely be in your DAL lineups, and he has the save upside to be at CAPT, too.
I won’t have much Vasilevskiy, simply because I would rather spend up for Kucherov, Point, and Hedman in my TB lineups.
CAPT pool: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Khudobin; TB – Point, Kucherov, Palat, Hedman
Favorite mini-stacks: DAL – Pavelski/Gurianov; TB – Kucherov/Point
Favorite one-offs: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Janmark, Hintz, Kiviranta, Heiskanen, Lindell, Klingberg, Khudobin; TB – Kucherov, Point, Palat, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Goodrow, Coleman, Gourde, Paquette, Hedman, Sergachev, Bogosian, McDonagh, Vasilevskiy
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