The Stanley Cup Finals continue tonight in Edmonton. Here’s your complete DFS Showdown breakdown for Game Two!
First of all, I want to revisit Strategy Session #21 – DraftKings Showdown Rules.
I’ve gone back and updated all of my rules. Only one was nixed, so six remain:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (87.7% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (84.4% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (95.4% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92.8% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Dallas Stars @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Game One
- 8:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Tampa Bay 55% | Total: 5.0
Forwards
Dallas may be for real. This team is living by the “defense wins championships” cliche. They shut down the high-powered Vegas offense last series, and appear to be on track to do the same to Tampa here in the finals.
This team doesn’t shoot a lot, but they’re getting quality chances with the shots they do take. The Stars top line of Seguin/Benn/Radulov had a ton of good chances in game one, so I’ll be looking to that line for any mini-stack exposure here.
For Tampa, it was surprisingly the Tyler Johnson line that showed out on Saturday. In the 9 minutes Johnson/Killorn/Cirelli were on the ice together, the Lightning generated 15 shot attempts and 8 scoring chances (!). I’ll try to piggyback on their performance here.
Defensemen
Hedman let us down in game one, but I still consider him to be good enough to have some CAPT exposure. Jamie Oleksiak blocked 6 shots and scored a goal. His ownership is likely to shoot up, I’m fine fading that.
Goalies
Game one proved our point about this goalie situation. Vasilevskiy only saw 20 shots. Even if the Lightning won this game, he’s not going to be in any winning lineups.
I will likely remove Vasi entirely from my player pool tonight, and will be sure to have Khudobin in each and every Stars lineup I build.
CAPT pool: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Khudobin; TB – Point, Kucherov, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Hedman
Favorite mini-stacks: DAL – Benn/Seguin, Benn/Radulov, Seguin/Radulov; TB – Johnson/Cirelli, Johnson/Killorn, Cirelli/Killorn
Favorite one-offs: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Janmark, Hintz, Kiviranta, Heiskanen, Lindell, Klingberg, Khudobin; TB – Kucherov, Point, Palat, Johnson, Cirelli, Killorn, Goodrow, Coleman, Gourde, Paquette, Hedman, Sergachev, Bogosian, McDonagh
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