Only single game Showdown slates for the remainder of the NHL DFS season. We’ve got your backs, though, with a daily breakdown of all the top plays and lineup building strategy.
First of all, I want to revisit Strategy Session #21 – DraftKings Showdown Rules.
I’ve gone back and updated all of my rules. Only one was nixed, so six remain:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (87.7% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (86.2% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (84.4% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (95.4% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92.8% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights, Game Five
- 8:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Vegas 57% | Total: 5.0
I just can’t get behind these Dallas Stars, even when they’re up 3-1. At some point Khudobin is going to fold. The shot differential is just too much.
With Stone and Pacioretty up on the top line, and Vegas having the “home ice advantage” tonight, this will be the line to target. Stone/Pacioretty is my preferred mini-stack, but either winger is a solid pairing with William Karlsson, too.
I’m not too fond of Marchessault and Smith with Stastny in the middle, nor do I like any of Alex Tuch’s linemates tonight, but one under the radar play I will be making is the duo of William Carrier and Nicolas Roy. Carrier doesn’t get a lot of minutes, but he has one of the highest percentages of shot volume per minute played, and Nic Roy seems to suit his playing style perfectly. These guys will have no ownership. It’s a risky play, but could just win you a GPP.
For Dallas, nothing much changes. Seguin (or Benn, or Radulov) makes a great one-off, but I don’t trust them to explode for multiple goals, which is what they’ll need at their current price point to hit value.
I do continue to like the pairing of Pavelski and Gurianov.
No CAPT’s here, but I would definitely have either Theodore and/or Heiskanen in my FLEX positions. Schmidt and Martinez for Vegas, and Klingberg and Lindell for Dallas are the other guys I’ll have some FLEX exposure to.
The same rules apply for me. Lehner is not worth a play in any format, as he just doesn’t see enough shot volume.
Khudobin is a great leverage play for DAL-heavy stacks. With his shot volume, I’d even consider him in VGK-heavy stack, if we’re being honest. He could let in 2-3 goals in a loss and still crush value.
CAPT pool: DAL – Khudobin, Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov; VGK – Pacioretty, Karlsson, Marchessault, Marchessault, Smith
Favorite mini-stacks: Pavelski/Gurianov (DAL); Pacioretty/Stone (VGK); Stone/Karlsson (VGK); Pacioretty/Karlsson (VGK); Carrier/Roy (VGK)
Favorite one-offs: DAL – Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Pavelski, Gurianov, Janmark, Heiskanen, Klingberg, Lindell, Khudobin; VGK – Karlsson, Marchessault, Smith, Stastny, Pacioretty, Roy, Stone, Tuch, Carrier, Theodore, Martinez, Schmidt
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