Ryan revisits his NHL DFS Showdown rules and breaks down tonight’s matchup between Toronto and Winnipeg.
Just one game in the NHL tonight. That means it’s time for some Showdown!
I’ve got data on nearly 200 NHL Showdown slates, and have developed a set of rules to follow when building lineups:
Rule #1 – No defensemen at CAPT (85.6% of optimals)
Rule #2 – Use a max of 1 goalie (86.9% of optimals)
Rule #3 – Set a minimum salary of $43,000 (87.5% of optimals)
Rule #4 – Remove third and fourth line forwards from CAPT pool (88.1% of optimals)
Rule #5 – Do not use any full-line stacks (97.5% of optimals)
Rule #6 – Use a max of 2 players from opposing team when using a goalie CAPT, and max 3 players from opposing team when using a UTIL goalie. (~92% of optimals)
Now on to today’s game!
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets
- 8:00 pm EST
- Implied Odds: Toronto 59% | Total: 5.5
- Game Projections:
It will be nearly full attendance for the Leafs tonight, with Mitchell Marner being the only significant scratch for Toronto in their regular season finale; Adam Brooks draws in. For the Jets, it’s a crowded room as well. Nik Ehlers isn’t quite ready yet, but the rest of Winnipeg’s regulars should be in the lineup tonight.
We’ll have to wait on Leafs lines, but it’s a safe bet to assume John Tavares and William Nylander will ride together. With the Jets having last change, I’ll likely fade Matthews here, rolling instead with the Tavares/Nylander mini-stack. These guys had a ridiculously good run late in the season, largely due to the fact that Toronto was on the road so often, and the Matthews line saw the opposition’s top defensive talent on most nights.
Depending on who gets slotted in next to Matthews, that player will likely hold a lot of value tonight, as well. While I’ll likely be fading Matthews, I will surely take the salary savings that should be offered with someone like Adam Brooks, Ilya Mikheyev, or Alexander Kerfoot skating next to #34.
For the Jets, I’ll pay up for Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele if I’m mini-stacking the top line, as Blake Wheeler has been much more inconsistent. I’ll probably look to save on Winnipeg’s side, though, with guys like Mathieu Perreault and Mason Appleton sticking out as nice one-off values.
Paul Stastny will move back to center on the second line, with Pierre-Luc Dubois moving to the right wing…I don’t want any part of that nonsense.
Neither of these teams have any standout defensemen for DFS purposes. Morgan Rielly and Neal Pionk are the respective PP1 point men for their teams. They offer the highest upside, but also cost the most and will have the highest ownership at the position.
I continue to find Jake Muzzin a more appealing fantasy option than Rielly for Toronto. While Muzzin doesn’t get the valuable minutes with the man advantage, he is on the ice so much at evens and on the penalty kill; he offers a big floor and has shown a knack for getting onto the score sheet, too, with 26 points in 52 games in 2021.
Most of Winnipeg’s defensemen offer a decent fantasy floor-to-salary ratio. Derek Forbort, Dylan DeMelo, Logan Stanley, and Jordie Benn are all salary savers that generally wind up with multiple shots and blocks when the night is said and done. These are all guys I don’t mind finishing out lineups with if you are short on cap space.
I don’t see the shot volume on either side to put these guys into CAPT consideration tonight. I won’t completely write these guys off for Showdown lineups, though. This just comes down to which side of the game you’re on. Generally, if you’re going to play a goaltender, just remember you probably don’t want someone from the opposing team in the CAPT slot, and you probably aren’t going to want more than 2 players from that team in your FLEX spots. I prefer Campbell slightly here, but as you can see, it’s pretty close.
CAPT pool: TOR – Tavares, Nylander; WPG – Scheifele, Connor, Perreault
Favorite mini-stacks: TOR – Tavares/Nylander; WPG – Scheifele/Connor
Favorite one-offs: TOR – Tavares, Nylander, Brooks/Mikheyev/Kerfoot (or whoever fills in for Marner on L1), Rielly, Muzzin; WPG – Scheifele, Connor, Perreault, Appleton, Pionk, Benn, DeMelo, Forbort, Stanley
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