In standard DFS tournaments, correlation is king. That’s not the case in showdown…
Before I dig into what could be the final game of the 2018-19 NHL campaign, I’m going to share Ryan Clifford’s well-researched rules for building optimal showdown lineups.
RULE #1: Set minimum salary to $42,000, maximum to $50,000
RULE #2: Use at least 4 players for one team
RULE #3: Don’t play both team’s goaltenders
RULE #4: Play no more than 2 defensemen
RULE #5: Do not full-stack any lines
RULE #6: No more than 1 mini-stack
RULE #7: Use only lines 1 & 2 when mini-stacking
RULE #8: Multi-enter whenever possible
Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues – Game 6
I’ll start with the home side, which could end it all with a win tonight. Vladimir Tarasenko is my favorite upside play. He leads the Blues this series in chances, shots on goal, and expected goals. He’s your best bet to find the back of the net.
As a whole, Jaden Schwartz has been one of the best players this post-season but Brayden Schenn is in better form right now. He has generated seven more chances through five games – making him a better threat to score – and faceoffs make him a much safer play. If you need the savings Schwartz is fine. Tarasenko/Schenn is my preferred duo.
Ryan O’Reilly is firmly in play as a one-off. He is playing a ton of minutes in all situations and the Blues could lean on him even heavier with the Stanley Cup within reach. He leads the series in scoring and is just below Tarasenko in terms of chance generation. He also wins a ton of draws.
You can use Zach Sanford or David Perron with him if you are MMEing but neither are must plays. I actually prefer Sanford (he has eight chances in 30 minutes compared to six chances in 85 minutes for Perron). Take the savings.
Beyond that, Tyler Bozak (PP work + faceoff wins), Robert Thomas (skilled and dirt cheap) are the only guys that really stand out to me.
Alex Pietrangelo has a higher ceiling but Colton Parayko is getting the same kind of minutes right now. If you don’t have money to spend, using Parayko is completely fine. Vince Dunn is a really nice value play. Not many players in that price range have his ceiling.
I know they haven’t done anything this series but I’d be careful sleeping on BOS1. They all have expected goals for percentages of ~55 or higher. That they’ve been out-scored 4-0 at 5v5 is unlucky. David Pastrnak would be my top priority, with Patrice Bereron right behind and Brad Marchand a little below.
Beyond the big line, my favorite forward targets are Charlie Coyle, Sean Kuraly, Marcus Johansson and Jake DeBrusk.
Torey Krug has finally been priced above the 7K range. I still really like him and think he’s by far the best option on Boston’s defense. I much prefer Krug to some of the similarly priced forwards (Schwartz, David Krejci, etc.). Charlie McAvoy doesn’t interest me much. Again, I’d rather play some of the forwards I mentioned above in that range. Matt Grzelcyk would be a favored punt. He’s not expected to play, though.
Jordan Binnington over Tuukka Rask in goal, although I should note I don’t generally use goaltenders.
Favorite Minis Stacks
Favorite High-Priced One-Offs
Favorite sub 5.5K one-offs:
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com