Things are all tied up as we head to St. Louis for game three of the Stanley Cup Finals…
I continue to be surprised by the sizing of contests on DK this year – let’s go win some of that money!
RYAN’S RULES FOR BUILDING OPTIMAL NHL SHOWDOWN LINEUPS
RULE #1: Set minimum salary to $42,000, maximum to $50,000
RULE #2: Use at least 4 players for one team
RULE #3: Don’t play both teams’ goaltenders
RULE #4: Play no more than 2 defensemen
RULE #5: Do not full-stack any lines
RULE #6: No more than 1 mini-stack
RULE #7: Use only lines 1 & 2 when mini-stacking
RULE #8: Multi-enter whenever possible
BOSTON BRUINS @ ST. LOUIS BLUES
- 8:05pm Faceoff
- Game Three (Series tied 1-1)
- Implied Odds: St. Louis 55% | Total: 5.0
The Blues top line is dominating the possession battle through two games, controlling nearly 70% of the Corsi share while generating big numbers of attempt, shots, high danger chances…and goals. Heading into game three, STL1 sits with a 3.6 xGF/60 this series, and being on home ice should only help them this week. Tarasenko has a goal in five of his last six games, and if you’re going to mini-stack STL1, I can’t see how leaving him off your stack would be a good idea. Jaden Schwartz has picked his game back up, so you can run lineups with Tarasenko/Schwartz, as well as Tarasenko/Schenn.
The Bergeron line has been getting punked by St. Louis thus far – with what should’ve been optimal matchups for the Bruins top-liners, the Bruins only managed 37.5% of the Corsi share in games 1 & 2 with their #1 line on the ice, ending up with an xGF/60 of just 1.4. Throughout the playoffs, however, that number jumps to a very nice 2.9 xGF/60 in road games, while their attempts, shots, chances and goals all remain above average. I’m not writing them off and will have some exposure, although, I like the Blues top line a bit more tonight.
The Blues and Bruins second lines have been playing at a very slow pace, just as I assumed would happen. In two games, both teams combined for an average of just 32.6 SOG per 60 minutes with Krejci/Backes/DeBrusk on the ice together (43.2 with STL2 on the ice). I’m going to avoid both lines – with the exception of Krejci – tonight.
In my one-off pool, the few value options I trust tonight include Sean Kuraly and Joakim Nordstrom from the Bruins fourth line, with Bozak being the cheapest St. Louis player I feel comfortable with rostering. This is still projected as a 5 O/U, so we may not see a lot of scoring tonight, making the goaltenders slightly more valuable, depending on which side of this game you fall on – I tend to favor St. Louis here.
Favorite Mini-Stacks: STL – Schenn/Tarasenko; Schwartz/Tarasenko; BOS – Bergeron/Marchand; Bergeron/Pastrnak; Marchand/Pastrnak
One-Off Player Pool: STL – Binnington, Pietrangelo, Schenn, Bozak, Tarasenko, Schwartz; BOS – Rask, McAvoy, Chara, Bergeron, Krejci, Kuraly, Marchand, Pastrnak, Nordstrom