In standard DFS tournaments, correlation is king. That’s not the case in showdown…
BOSTON BRUINS vs. ST. LOUIS BLUES – G2
As usual, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are firmly in play tonight. You can use all combinations of the two, and should if you’re MMEing, but my preferred duo is Bergeron and Marchand.
Bergeron leads the Bruins in shots/scoring chances this post-season and is going to get you a lot of faceoff wins. The floor is very high and so is the ceiling.
Marchand, meanwhile, ranks 1st on the Bruins in expected goals, 2nd in chances, and has played ~55 more minutes than Pastrnak. He’s generating more looks, seeing more ice, and he is cheaper. Marchand will also almost certainly remain with Bergeron no matter what, while Pastrnak at times gets shifted down to balance the offense. I just think Marchand is a better play right now, especially at his price.
On L2, Jake DeBrusk is the top priority for me. Only the big three have recorded more shots than DeBrusk this postseason, and he does get exposure to them on the PP, which has *really* been clicking. If you’re going with a BOS2 mini instead of BOS1, I’d much prefer David Krejci to David Backes. The latter just doesn’t play enough to warrant real consideration, even at his price.
There are a few different ways you can attack L3. If you’re chasing safety in a one-off, Charlie Coyle is the way to go. He’s going to get you faceoff wins, he’s going to see steady minutes, and he sits 3rd on the Bruins in expected goals. If you want to go with a lower floor upside play, Marcus Johansson is the guy. He splits PP duties with DeBrusk, meaning he gets exposure to the top guns on PP1. Coyle does not. Johansson is also more of a puck carrier and facilitator offensively, so he’s likely going to pick up more shot contributions (shots + shot assists) than Coyle. You need shot contributions to find the scoresheet. If you can’t afford either of these two, Danton Heinen is usable but, to me, he’s like a lesser Johansson. Low floor, and less likely to hit the ceiling.
Sean Kuraly is an OK option on the 4th line, though, I’d prefer spending a few extra bucks and going with Coyle, Johansson or Charlie McAvoy – or dropping down to Matt Grzelcyk (more on him in a bit).
On defense, I love Torey Krug. I think he is quite underpriced for the floor and ceiling he provides. Jaden Schwartz, for example, logs less ice time, averages fewer points per game, is on the road, and costs $1.2K more. David Krejci’s PPG is nearly identical, and he is $2K more. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
McAvoy brings a nice mix of floor and ceiling. He wouldn’t be a priority, but he’s solid. After that, I’m all about Matt Grzelcyk. You’re not getting much of a floor, but his ceiling is much higher than that of Zdeno Chara or Brandon Carlo and you’re getting Grz at almost the same price. #TeamGrz
Tuukka Rask is a strong play. If I’m using a goalie, it’s Rask.
To St. Louis we go. In G1, Vladimir Tarasenko played twice as much against BOS4 than BOS1. He posted a CF above 80% against BOS4. If the Bruins are going to match up the same way, which seems likely given the team’s overall performance, Tarasenko’s big ticket doesn’t really scare me. He’s opportunistic, and he’s likely going to get chances if the matchups play out the same way. Factoring in price, I think I prefer Brayden Schenn to Jaden Schwartz. He plays much more, he’s $1.4K cheaper, and he has only recorded six fewer chances through 20 games. Schwartz is shooting 22.2%, while Schenn is shooting 6.82%. That’s a big reason for the gulf between them in *actual* production, and Schwartz is obviously not going to continue scoring at that rate.
Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron aren’t as high up as Tank/Schenn for me. They’ll spend a similar amount of time against BOS1, but they’ll see more of the Krug pairing than McAvoy pairing (I think that’s a negative), and I don’t think they have as much raw talent. ROR brings an awesome floor, but I’d rather pay for Tarasenko’s goal-scoring ceiling.
I wouldn’t really consider an STL3 mini. Generally, I don’t like to go beyond the top-6 and I prefer Boston’s depth players. Tyler Bozak is my favored one-off there, with Robert Thomas* coming in at No. 2 and Patrick Maroon at No. 3.
Oskar Sundqvist or bust on L4.
Factoring in price, I prefer Colton Parayko to Alex Pietrangelo. I don’t think either is going to have a ceiling game on the scoresheet, and Parayko’s floor is similar – especially right now, considering he is playing as much or more than Pietrangelo every night.
Beyond that, Vince Dunn is the only guy I like (if healthy). He’s much like Grzelcyk for Boston. The floor games aren’t great, but he has a GPP winning ceiling and he is dirt cheap. I mean, guys like Brandon Carlo, Noel Acciari and Ivan Barbashev are more money.
If you’re stacking four or five Blues, I’d probably work Jordan Binnington into your lineup. Otherwise, he is a pass for me.
*UPDATE: Robert Thomas is not expected to play tonight
Favorite Forward Minis
Favorite Bottom-6 One-Offs
- Marcus Johansson
- Charlie Coyle
- Tyler Bozak
- Danton Heinen
- Patrick Maroon
Favorite Underpriced One-Offs
- Torey Krug
- Jake DeBrusk
- Colton Parayko
- Matt Grzelcyk
- Vince Dunn
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com