Thursday’s NHL main slate features twelve (12) games and a 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT roster lock…
Tuesday’s slate FINALLY went well, as I was overexposed to DAL1, COL1, and had some Justin Williams with Petr Mrazek. Tonight is going to be somewhat similar in that we want to leverage the teams that are playing meaningful games.
With 95% of the teams not having much to play for, I will not separate the stacks in order of ownership. I am simply going to list my five favorite stacks for the night.
While GPP lineups often focus on stacking, there will be plenty of times where you need to insert a value play, so I will also include a few of my favorite value plays in each of these GPP focused write-ups. I wouldn’t want your lineups to be scattered with value plays, but I do know that you will end up needing to play a cheap option or two every now and then.
Also, please check out the following important information…
Please be sure to keep track of the LINES (who plays with who) and goalie confirmations (who are the starting goalies). Here are the resources I recommend to keep an eye on any developments:
This information comes straight from writers who follow each of the NHL teams closely. If anything important ever comes up, they are surely the first to know and will know earlier than any DFS or NHL website. Following this list will make it easier for you to keep an eye on all types of changes throughout the day (e.g. line changes, goalie confirmations, and late scratches).
If a goalie gets confirmed as the starter throughout the day, this is where you’ll want to go to make sure they are locked in.
This resource is very good to check on line combinations from the previous game and the projected lines for the next game. Be aware that lines may update as they come in, so if a team holds a morning skate, there’s a good chance that the lines that are updated from the morning skate are going to be used in that night’s game.
Before I go over tonight’s stacks, I want to talk about some of the stats I like to look at when it comes to recent play. It’s no secret that a lot of teams have changed drastically compared to earlier this season due to coaching changes, trade deadline maneuvers, and full-fledged tanking. This has led me to look deeply into pace and high-danger scoring chance rate at a micro level. Below, you’ll see pace (5v5 Corsi For + 5v5 Corsi Allowed) and high-danger chance rate (both for and allowed at 5v5) over the last two weeks. It’s a small sample size (anywhere between 6-8 games for each team), but it’s enough to get an idea of the teams that may be good to target, target against, or completely avoid for GPPs. The following charts go through these stats over the last two weeks…
*Stacks are not listed in order of preference
CAR1: Justin Williams/Sebastian Aho/Nino Niederreiter
Possible add-ons: Justin Faulk (PP1) or Jaccob Slavin (5v5)
The Hurricanes are a team in must-win territory and Carolina’s top line is a line that is actually more affordable than earlier this season due to their lack of production recently. Still, Justin Williams is “Mr. Game 7” for a reason; he doesn’t lose in game 7’s and he’s about as clutch as they come. With these games becoming more and more important, I fully expect these three to come through.
COL1: Gabriel Landeskog/Nathan MacKinnon/Alexander Kerfoot
Possible add-on: Tyson Barrie (5v5 and PP1)
Speaking of coming through, you have to hand it to Jared Bednar because he has seemingly found the perfect replacement for Mikko Rantanen in Alex Kerfoot. Kerfoot is in the middle of the streak of his life, accumulating four goals and four assists over his last six games. With the Avs basically controlling their destiny as just one point will clinch a playoff berth, I do think that the Avs top line will come through again.
ARI3: Vinnie Hinostroza/Brad Richardson/Michael Grabner
Possible add-on: Alex Goligoski (5v5 and PP2)
The Coyotes might feel down about themselves for losing to the Kings on Tuesday, but I promise everyone who didn’t watch that game, it had nothing to do with effort and everything to do with Jack Campbell playing lights out between the pipes. The Richardson line was undoubtedly the best line on the ice even though they were matched up against Kopitar’s line. I expect Richardson’s line to get big minutes, but unlikely to get the best competition for most of the night in tonight’s contest against the Golden Knights.
MTL1: Tomas Tatar/Phillip Danault/Brendan Gallagher
MTL2: Artturi Lehkonen/Max Domi/Andrew Shaw
Possible add-ons: Shea Weber or Jeff Petry
The big issue I have with targeting the Habs is just the fact that you don’t really know where the scoring is going to come from, and that’s especially the case knowing that they are one of the worst power-play teams in the entire league. Nevertheless, the two more likely producers are obviously the top line headlined by Brendan Gallagher and the 2nd line headlined by Max Domi. I have a slight preference for Domi’s line, but I’d be lying if I told you I had a strong feeling about it. The Canadiens are playing good hockey right now and playing with a great deal of pace as well.
- DET1: Tyler Bertuzzi/Dylan Larkin/Anthony Mantha
- MIN3: Ryan Donato/Victor Rask/Kevin Fiala
*I am now separating the value plays by site because there are so many drastic differences in value. Also, keep in mind that none of these value options are “must plays.” They are all values for a reason.
DraftKings Value Plays
Jordan Weal (C-MTL): $2900
Colin White (C-OTT): $3700
Alex Kerfoot (W-COL): $3900
Vinnie Hinostroza (W-ARI): $4500
Taro Hirose (W-DET): $3000
Jason Demers (D-ARI): $2900
Joe Hicketts (D-DET): $2700
FanDuel Value Plays
Travis Zajac (C-NJ): $4300
Charlie Coyle (C-BOS): $4300
Alex Kerfoot (W-COL): $4600
Ryan Donato (W-MIN): $3600
Miles Wood (W-NJ): $3700
Jeff Petry (D-MTL): $4300
Jaccob Slavin (D-CAR): $4100
*Make sure your goalie is starting. I would generally recommend just correlating your goalie with a stack that you are using (as long as it’s not a game stack), but if not, these are my favorites…
Philipp Grubauer, Avalanche (DK: $7500; FD: $8600)
Petr Mrazek, Hurricanes (DK: $8200; FD: $8200)
Jordan Binnington, Blues (DK: $8200; FD: $8800)