Bruins have a dream matchup against a Senators team that ranks 31st in both attempts and goals against/60 on the year.
HIGH KEY STACKS
BOS1: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Danton Heinen
Possible add-on: Torey Krug
In ~155 minutes together at 5v5, they have controlled 55.5% of the attempts, 57% of the chances, and outscored opponents 11-2. They’re remarkably good at evens and also fully correlate on the top power play. If that’s not enough to entice you, they have a dream matchup against a Senators team that ranks 31st in both attempts and goals against/60 on the year. One extra little bonus: Jake DeBrusk, Marcus Johansson, and David Pastrnak are all out with injuries, which has significantly eaten into Boston’s scoring depth. That could mean more minutes for BOS1.
TB2: Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov
Possible add-on: Victor Hedman
This trio has been one of the league’s best since the day they were assembled. They generate shots/chances at a high clip and obviously have the talent to convert on a consistent basis. Tonight they draw a nice matchup against Detroit. The Red Wings were bad, to begin with, and now they don’t have arguably their best player in Dylan Larkin. They’re also expected to start Jonathan Bernier (.896 save percentage) as opposed to Jimmy Howard (.909 save percentage), which only makes TB2 more attractive.
MID KEY STACKS
CBJ1: Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cam Atkinson
Possible add-ons: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski
The Blue Jackets have struggled of late, and there are a lot of name-brand lines in action tonight, so I think this line could fly a little under the radar considering how good it is. On the year, their shot/chance numbers are comparable to that of the Kucherov line. They actually score 5v5 goals at an even higher rate (4.42/60). While the Penguins have defended better of late, they’re pretty banged up on the backend and CBJ1 is more than capable of taking advantage of that.
NYI1: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey
Possible add-on: Nick Leddy (PP1 with Lee/Bailey)
Despite a respectable 6-3-1 record over the last 10 games, the Flyers have had an awful time defending. They’ve given up 64.6 attempts/60, 30.4 chances/60, and 3.35 goals/60 during that stretch, all of which rank them near the bottom of the league. This line is as likely as any to take advantage, especially if they match up against Claude Giroux’s line (the Flyers allow 70 attempts and 34 chances per 60 with Giroux+JvR on the ice).
LOW KEY STACKS
DET1: Tyler Bertuzzi, Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha
Possible add-on: Filip Hronek
With Athanasiou and Mantha on the ice, the Red Wings have absolutely dominated, out-attempting opponents 91-55 (62.33 CF%) and out-chancing them 45-18 (71.43 SCF%). The numbers are similarly strong when Bertuzzi is in the mix, although that sample size is very small. Nevertheless, this trio has talent, they all skate on a power play unit, and they don’t have to deal with Andrei Vasilevskiy today.
NJ1: Kenny Agostino, Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri
Possible add-on: Damon Severson
Over the last 10 games, the Rangers have allowed 65.27 attempts/60 (30th), 30.85 chances/60 (28th), and 14.66 high-danger chances/60 (29th). They can’t defend a lick right now. With the Devils absolutely decimated by injuries, the top line is likely to get 20+ minutes of ice to try and take advantage of New York’s putrid defense.
As always, I recommend correlating with your stacks. Marc-Andre Fleury and Thomas Greiss are probably my favorite plays that wouldn’t require you to spend ludicrous money on. I think Sergei Bobrovsky is a really strong GPP play because we know the talent is there and not many want to back the Jackets right now, especially against Pittsburgh. I think Anton Khudobin is pretty underpriced as a home favorite playing behind a team that doesn’t give up many chances.
Nazem Kadri (4.3 DK, 5.1 FD) – Was shooting a ton prior to going down with an injury. Jumps back into the lineup with William Nylander on his wing, exposure to the big dogs on PP1, and a great matchup against Edmonton’s depth players.
William Nylander (3.8 DK, 4.8 FD) – You’re probably sick of seeing his name here but his rate stats are strong and now he gets to play with Kadri and Marleau as opposed to Brown and Marleau, which is a big difference.
Nolan Patrick (3.5 DK, 4.7 FD) – His floor is garbage but he is centering Giroux and taking on an Islanders team that has bled chances at a high clip over the last 10 games.
J.G. Pageau (3.4 DK, 3.5 FD) – Pageau is one of the best-kept secrets in NHL DFS right now. Big minutes and is fantastic peripherally. All it takes is one appearance on the scoresheet to pop.
Anthony Beauvillier (3.9 DK, 4.5 FD) – As mentioned above, the Flyers are a trainwreck defensively right now. Beauvillier is very talented and skates on a line with Mathew Barzal, so he’ll certainly be in position to do some damage.
J.T. Miller (3.9 DK, 4.2 FD) – L1 with Stamkos, PP1 with Stamkos, Kucherov, et al., and taking on a bad, beat up Red Wings team.
Alex Chiasson (3.3 DK, 3.9 FD) – Plays with Draisaitl at evens, skates on the top power play, and the Maple Leafs have been one of the worst shot + chance suppression teams in the league of late.
Josh Leivo (2.9 DK, 3.9 FD) – Not a great spot vs Vegas but all it takes is a point to hit value at this price, and that’s certainly possible considering he is skating with Boeser/Pettersson and seeing minutes on PP1.
Colin Miller (4.1 DK, 3.7 FD) – Has shot the puck a ton of late and draws a nice matchup vs Vancouver, a highly mediocre team that happens to take a fair amount of penalties (Miller is great on the PP).
Nick Leddy (3.8 DK, 3.9 FD) – Has been better peripherally of late, plays a lot, skates on PP1, and has a nice matchup against a leaky Flyers team.
Filip Hronek (3.7 DK, 3.7 FD) – Probably won’t give you much peripherally but he plays a ton of minutes and skates on PP1.
Will Butcher/Connor Carrick – Cheating a little here but they both skate on the 2nd pairing, PP2, and have a little offensive upside (Butcher more as a passer, Carrick more as a shooter).
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com