Today’s NHL Cash Game Breakdown covers today’s 8-game main slate. Let’s have a look at my top plays, Core Four, and slate value trends.
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As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well as in the chat room.
You guys can’t seem to get enough of the Jeff Mans “Core Four” model, so I’m going to start including mine in my cash game breakdowns. These are the four players I would recommend starting my cash game lineups with.
DraftKings Core Four: Tyler Seguin (DAL), Patric Hornqvist (PIT), Tyler Toffoli (VAN), Justin Williams (CAR)
FanDuel Core Four: Auston Matthews (TOR), Patric Hornqvist (PIT), Tyler Toffoli (VAN), Anders Lee (NYI)
Current Value Trends
The average cutline in single entry double-ups on 10-game slates:
DraftKings: 94.8 (1.9x salary)
FanDuel: 123.4 (2.2x salary)
Good luck tonight!
Positional Cash Game Rankings
Auston Matthews, TOR
DK $8400 FD $8600
Matthews tops my player list of projected shots on goal tonight (5.5) and it’s not close. Even with what seems like a tough matchup against Tampa Bay, he’ll get the plus matchups with the game in Toronto. Now skating with William Nylander – Marner has moved back to Tavares’ wing – look for AM34 to have the puck on his stick a bit more as Nylander is more of a shooter than the possession hog that Marner is.
Tyler Seguin, DAL
DK $6800 FD $7400
I have Dallas projected for almost 40 shots on goal tonight – about 120% of their normal shot volume on home ice. For a guy averaging more than 4 shots per game of late, this is a significant boost to Seguin’s upside. The Stars top centerman has 6 goals in his last 12 games and Dallas is a big home favorite against the Rangers here.
Jared McCann, PIT (W on DK)
DK $4300 FD $3700
McCann hasn’t scored a goal since before the all-star break – he’s 0 for his last 55 shots on goal! So why would I have McCann in the cash game write-up? Well, he’s still shooting the puck, he’s still getting time on the power play, he’s cheap, and the Pens face a terrible New Jersey Devils squad tonight. Regression will come soon for McCann. He makes for a nice high-floor stack with Hornqvist, too.
Nick Suzuki, MON
DK $4000 FD $4300
Suzuki has at least 3 shots on goal in each of his last five games. He’s still playing on the Habs top power play unit and Montreal faces Nashville tonight – who has the league’s No. 26 ranked power play in 2020 – in a game I have projected as the highest-paced matchup on the slate. He’ll get an ideal 5v5 matchup against Nashville’s bottom defensive pairing – avoiding Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, and Fabbro.
Patric Hornqvist, PIT
DK $6100 FD $4900
Hornqvist is certainly a better value on FanDuel, but I’m going to be playing him on DK, as well. In his last ten games, the big Swede has registered at least 3 shots in each – averaging 4.5 shots per game. He’s had 5+ SOG in six of those ten games, which activates the 3-point bonus on DK. Best of all, he gives you exposure to the Penguins top power play unit, which also includes the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Rust, and Letang. A matchup with a bad Devils team puts it over the top for me.
Tyler Toffoli, VAN
DK $6000 FD $5300
Another big shot guy, Toffoli is averaging 4 per game over his last ten, and its translated into 8 goals and 3 assists for the recent Vancouver acquisition. On DraftKings, Toffoli has hit eight of the 3-point bonuses in those games, giving him a tremendous combination of floor + upside. Vancouver is on home ice against the Isles tonight, so expect a nice matchup for Toffoli and his linemates Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller against the Islanders depth.
Justin Williams, CAR
DK $4300 FD $3800
Shots, shot, and more shots. Williams is averaging nearly 5 per game since late February. He’s scored in four straight games (5 total goals), yet somehow is still priced in the lower-mid tier of forwards, despite a glorious matchup against the lowly Detroit Red Wings. With the game in Detroit, he avoids the matchup against Larkin and Mantha at 5v5 and gives you exposure to the Canes top power play unit.
Anders Lee, NYI
DK $6300 FD $6500
Lee disappeared for a couple of games last week, but he seems to be back in form after registering a goal, an assist, and 10 shots on goal in his last two contests. The Canucks have lost five of six games, allowing an average of nearly 4 goals against per game. Lee’s line with Barzal and Eberle will draw all of Vancouver’s shut-down skaters, so the sledding won’t be easy, but the SOG floor makes the risk of being held off of the score sheet much easier to swallow.
Brady Tkachuk, OTT
DK $6900 FD $6200
Tkachuk is one of the top shot and chance generators in all of hockey. He went through a bit of a lull recently, but seems to be back to his old self, with goals in two of his last three games. He’s averaging 3.6 shots on goal per game over his last ten, and there’s a good chance that Tkachuk and the Sens will be shooting on AHL’er Anthony Stolarz tonight. Anaheim is killing less than 70% of their opponent’s power play chances in 2020, giving Tkachuk and the Sens PP some addition upside in tonight’s late game.
Denis Gurianov, DAL
DK $3800 FD $3900
Gurianov scored 9 goals in February, tying him for second in franchise history for goals in a month, tied with the likes of Brian Bellows and Dino Ciccarelli – pretty good company! His floor isn’t the highest – Gurianov averages just over 2 SOG per game since February 1 – but he does give you exposure to the Stars top power play now, which is in a good spot against a Rangers PK that ranks No. 26 since February 1. Dallas is also in a big pace-up spot, making Gurianov one of my favorite cheap values on the slate.
William Nylander, TOR
DK $5900 FD $6500
Nylander is a much more natural fit with Auston Matthews, and he’s skating alongside of the young superstar again. He has been playing great hockey on an otherwise underachieving Leafs team recently. He’s scored 4 goals in his last eight, averaging over 3 SOG per game, so there is a decent floor here. Nylander’s salary should skyrocket if he keeps his spot next to Matthews, I’m more than comfortable getting in on him here.
Rickard Rakell, ANH
DK $5500 FD $5600
Rakell is now skating on an extremely talented line with Adam Henrique and Jakub Silfverberg, and they’re on fire. Rakell has averaged about 16 DK points per game over his last five, with a goal, 5 assists, and 20 shots on goal. His fantasy points on that site have been bolstered by a total of five 3-point bonuses in those games, and oh yeah, tonight he gets a home matchup against the Ottawa Senators.
Roman Josi, NSH
DK $7500 FD $7200
One of the league’s top peripheral performers in the game with the slate’s highest projected pace? Sign me up. There are a few pieces I like on FanDuel that make it easier to fit Josi into lineups over there, but I think you certainly should consider him on DraftKings, too. Josi is averaging 6.1 SOG+BS per game over his last 10 – hitting seven 3-point bonuses on DK.
Alex Edler, VAN
DK $5500 FD $4200
This is more of a FanDuel play. Edler is just too great of a value on that site. Although he’s not getting any power play time, he’s still been averaging 5 peripherals per game over his last 12, while adding a respectable 9 points (1G 8A) in those. I’ll have a little bit of exposure on DK, but this is almost lockable on FanDuel.
Miro Heiskanen, DAL
DK $4700 FD $4300
I’d really like to get Josi into lineups, and thankfully there are a number of mid-tier priced defensemen to help me get there. As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, Dallas is in a big pace-up spot against the Rangers, so either of their peripheral-packing defensemen are suitable for cash lineups. Heiskanen is my favorite for price, floor, and upside combo.
Esa Lindell, DAL
DK $3900 FD $3500
Lindell is a bit cheaper, but doesn’t give you the upside of a Heiskanen. He is skating with Klingberg on the top pair – getting 20+ minutes per game while averaging 4 SOG+BS per game over his last five.
John Klingberg, DAL
DK $5300 FD $5600
I like Klingberg’s value more on DraftKings. He gives you exposure to the top power play unit against the awful Rangers PK. Both Klingberg’s minutes and peripherals have steadily been climbing.
Shayne Gostisbehere, PHI
DK $3600 FD $3600
Last, but not least, Shayne Gostisbehere is set to return to action tonight. He was one of the NHL’s top offensive defensemen over the past couple of seasons, but really hit a funk early in the year. Although he won’t get PP time right away, I still think this is too cheap for a player with the offensive ability that “Ghost” possesses.
- Juuse Saros, NSH
- Ben Bishop, DAL
- Anthony Stolarz/Ryan Miller, ANH (not confirmed yet)
- Igor Shesterkin, NYR (big shot volume, but you’ll have to fade Stars)
**Be sure to check out tonight’s Goalie Model for more goaltender analysis.