Today’s NHL Cash Game Breakdown covers tonight’s 11-game main slate. Let’s have a look at my top plays, Core Four, and slate value trends.
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As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well as in the chat room.
You guys can’t seem to get enough of the Jeff Mans “Core Four” model, so I’m going to start including mine in my cash game breakdowns. These are the four players I would recommend starting my cash game lineups with.
DraftKings Core Four: Auston Matthews (TOR), Blake Coleman (NJ), Andy Greene (NJ), John Gibson (ANH)
FanDuel Core Four: Auston Matthews (TOR), Luke Kunin (MIN), Blake Coleman (NJ), Ryan Graves (COL),
Current Value Trends
The average cutline in single entry double-ups on 13-game slates:
DraftKings: 103.1 (2.1x salary)
FanDuel: 134.2 (2.4x salary)
Good luck tonight!
Positional Cash Game Rankings
Auston Matthews, TOR
DK $8400 FD $8600
Matthews on home ice. ‘Nuff said.
Tyler Seguin, DAL
DK $6500 FD $7400
Seguin is averaging 4.5 shots on goal per game in six February games. I am a big fan of targeting goalies returning from injury, which is the spot Frederik Andersen finds himself in tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him struggle, and if he does, you want to look at who will be doing the shooting in order to find the goals. That would be Seguin.
Derek Stepan, ARI
DK $4400 FD $4500
Arizona is in a big pace-up spot in Ottawa tonight. Stepan has 3 or more shots on goal in four of his last five games. He’s playing alongside of Kessel and Crouse, and he should avoid the matchups against Ottawa’s shut-down skaters.
Luke Kunin, MIN
DK $4400 FD $3700
Kunin will center Galchenyuk and Zuccarello against the Rangers tonight, in what I have projected to be the second-highest paced game of the slate. I like Kunin tonight especially, because not only is Minnesota projected to shoot more than average, but the Rangers are, too. Kunin is a big shot blocker, with two 3-point blocked shot bonuses on DK in his last five games. He should see a big peripheral uptick here.
Also consider: Nathan MacKinnon (COL), Kevin Hayes (PHI), Radek Faksa (DAL), Andreas Athanasiou (DET)
Blake Coleman, NJ
DK $6200 FD $4600
Coleman has been priced up on DK, but I find him to still be one of the top values on the slate in this matchup on home ice against Detroit. Coleman is averaging over 5 peripherals per game, and he’s scored 10 goals over his last 17 games – that’s about a 50-goal pace. Best of all, he’s only shooting at an 11.9% clip – just 1.8% higher than his career average. This could be sustainable if he keeps shooting as much as he’s been.
Brady Tkachuk, OTT
DK $6000 FD $6100
Tkachuk – as one of the league’s top shot and chance producers – should certainly be considered for all formats tonight. On DK, Tkachuk has hit the 3-point SOG bonus in three straight games, as he averages nearly 5 SOG per game over his last 10. The Sens have been much better on home ice, and the Coyotes match up well for Ottawa, as this game projects to be one of the highest-paced matchups on the slate.
Max Pacioretty, VGK
DK $7200 FD $7200
Right up there with Coleman and Tkachuk in the land of shot volume is Pacioretty. The Vegas winger is averaging over 5 shots per game over his last 20 – remarkable consistency. He’s hitting DK’s 3-point SOG bonus in over two-thirds of games in this stretch. Due to price and what I project to be an extremely slow-paced game with the Blues, I strongly prefer the first two wingers on this list.
Kevin Fiala, MIN
DK $4500 FD $5300
Fiala is one of the hottest players in the league. He’s skating on Minnesota’s top line with Eric Staal and Zach Parise, and he’s piled up 5 goals and 5 assists in his last five games. Most importantly, he’s shooting the puck at an insanely high rate – averaging nearly 5.5 shots per game during this hot run.
Anders Lee, NYI
DK $5300 FD $6400
I have the Isles and Preds game projected to be the highest paced game of the night. This bodes well for a player like Lee, who loves to shoot the puck whenever he can. He’s had three straight games against teams that play at a snail’s pace (Washington, Tampa, Philadelphia), but before that stretch, he was averaging nearly 5 shots per game for awhile. The only reason he’s not higher on my list is due to matchup. The Islanders are in Nashville, and you can be sure the Predators will deploy all of their top shut-down skaters against Lee and Barzal.
Taylor Hall, ARI
DK $7300 FD $7400
Hall is finding his old form on Arizona’s top line with Christian Dvorak and Connor Garland. He’s up over 5 SOG per game again, of late, with 12 points (5G 7A) in his last 12 games. This OTT-ARI game is one of my favorites to target tonight, as both teams will see a bump up in pace. Again, matchup is all that’s keeping Hall down on this list, as Ottawa can pick and choose who gets the matchup with Hall.
Jakub Silfverberg, ANH
DK $5400 FD $5500
I have a hunch about Anaheim tonight. Silfverberg has been playing some really good hockey lately, really proving that he can drive offense on his own – while skating alongside of Max Jones and Sam Steel. Calgary is on a B2B, and they’ll likely be starting Cam Talbot in net – a big plus for the Ducks. Silfverberg has goals in two of his last three.
Nick Paul, OTT
DK $2800 FD $3500
I’m not sure we need a whole lot of deep value tonight, but Paul tops the list for me. He’s hit a 3-point bonus on DK in two of his last three, while getting nearly 13 minutes TOI per game – not bad for a third liner. He missed 10 games, but dating back to late December, Paul has 4 points (3G 1A) in eight games.
Also consider: Carl Soderberg (ARI), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM)
Roman Josi, NSH
DK $8000 FD $6500
I’m a big Roman Josi fan, and he’s been one of my favorite cash game plays this season. His price, however, is getting out of control. I’m not sure I can pay up for him tonight, despite the high-pace I project for his matchup against the Islanders tonight. There may be enough value to cram him in, but it’s a decision you’ll have to make. Personally, I think I’m paying down for cheaper options on defense – there are plenty of them!
Andy Greene, NJ
DK $3800 FD $3700
I’m finding myself on the same 3 or 4 games tonight when looking for cash game options. New Jersey is in a nice spot against the Red Wings tonight, and Greene should be a peripheral monster tonight. He has the 3-point block bonus on DK in six of his last seven games, and he recorded 4 shots on goal his last time out against Florida.
Dante Fabbro, NSH
DK $3300 FD $3500
Fabbro is less than 50% the cost of Josi, has the same matchup, and has been generating a ton of shots and blocks of his own. He’s received a 3-point DK bonus in 6 of his last 11 games, while averaging more than 4 peripherals per game. I’m leaning towards fading Josi for the cheaper Fabbro tonight.
Travis Sanheim, PHI
DK $3600 FD $3800
Sanheim has hit the 3-point shot block bonus on DK in 3 of 4, while also averaging 3.5 shots per game, too. It’s a pace-up spot for Philly tonight, on the road against the Panthers. The young Flyers defender is still priced sub-$4k and he’s getting 20+ minutes on ice per game, giving us a very solid floor to salary ratio.
Darnell Nurse, EDM
DK $4600 FD $4000
Although I’m not terribly high on this EDM-TB game in general, the Lightning are missing a lot of key pieces tonight, and Nurse has been consistently piling up big shot and block numbers of late – 5.4 peripherals per game over his last five. He’s still moderately priced and seems to be generating more offense on his own with McDavid out of the lineup.
Ryan Graves, COL
DK $5100 FD $4200
Graves has either been slowing down, or he’s had a few rough games that should only be viewed as outliers. I’m leaning towards the latter, but the former might scare me enough to look elsewhere tonight. He does have 8 points (2G 6A) in his last 10 games, and he’s hit seven 3-point bonuses on DK.
Michael Stone, CGY
DK $3000 FD $3500
Stone keeps putting up peripherals, but more importantly, he’s getting meaningful minutes with Mark Giordano out of the lineup – up over 20 minutes of play in each of his last two. He’s still near min-price on both sites, allowing you to pay up for some more firepower at the forward position.
Also consider: Colton Parayko (STL), Oscar Klefbom (EDM), Jonas Brodin (MIN), Jake Muzzin (TOR), Erik Cernak (TB), David Savard (CBJ), Mathew Dumba (MIN), Esa Lindell (DAL)
- John Gibson, ANH (DK $7300 FD $7700)
- Marcus Hogberg, OTT (DK $7500 FD $7200)
- Pekka Rinne, NSH (DK $8000 FD $7600)
- Alex Stalock, MIN (DK $7400 FD $8000)
**Be sure to check out tonight’s Goalie Model for more goaltender analysis.