Today’s NHL Cash Game Breakdown covers tonight’s five-game main slate. Let’s have a look at my top plays, Core Four, and slate value trends.
Super Draft is a new DFS site that has recently partnered up with Elite Fantasy. They just added NHL contests to the site, and all of our NHL DFS subs get a $10 bonus on their first deposit by using the code: “Elite” at sign-up. ——— www.superdraft.io ———
As always, I will do my best to keep the article updated to reflect any late scratches, line changes or surprise goalie confirmations. Please follow me on Twitter @RyanClifford as I will always post any updates that affect my article there, as well as in the chat room.
You guys can’t seem to get enough of the Jeff Mans “Core Four” model, so I’m going to start including mine in my cash game breakdowns. These are the four players I would recommend starting my cash game lineups with.
DraftKings Core Four: Jack Eichel (BUF), Patrick Kane (CHI), Jeff Carter (LA), Adam Fox (NYR)
FanDuel Core Four: Max Pacioretty (VGK), Taylor Hall (NJ), Jacob Trouba (NYR), Ryan Miller (ANH)
Current Value Trends
The average cutline in single entry double-ups on five-game slates:
DraftKings: 90.2 (1.8x salary)
FanDuel: 113.7 (2.1x salary)
Good luck tonight!
Positional Cash Game Rankings
- Jack Eichel, BUF (DK $8200 FD $8400) – The Sabres put 7 goals on the board in their first meeting with the Devils this season. This seems like a different team on home ice – averaging 3.4 goals per game in Buffalo in their last five, against just 2.2 per game in their last five on the road. Eichel has 6 goals and 3 assists in those last five at home – averaging over 5 SOG per game.
- Brock Nelson, NYI (DK $6300 FD $5900) – Nelson still ranks top-10 league wide when it comes to individual scoring chances and high danger chances. With a matchup tonight against a Red Wings team that’s allowing over 4 goals against per game in their last ten, Nelson’s ceiling is tremendous. With an average of 4.4 peripherals (SOG+BS) per game in his last five, the floor ain’t bad, either.
- Ryan Getzlaf, ANH (DK $5600 FD $6200) – The Kings are another team with well-documented struggles on the road this season. They’ve lost eight straight away from home – 10 of 12 total – while allowing over 4 goals against per game to home opponents. Getzlaf keeps finding a way to generate fantasy value – he’s finished with less than 7 DK points just once since October 14 – averaging over 12.5 DK points per game across his last 20.
- Jonathan Toews, CHI (DK $5100 FD $6300) – Toews is a better value on DK tonight. He’s hit the 5+ SOG bonus on that site four times in his last six games – averaging over 4 shots per game in this stretch. He’s not producing as many points as I’d like, but he’s shooting at just a 6% clip this season – less than 50% of his career percentage…the goals will start coming soon for Toews.
- Patrick Kane, CHI (DK $7700 FD $8600) – Kane is in the midst of a 15-game point streak. In his last five games, though, he’s averaging over 5 SOG/game, which is providing us with a nice floor in addition to the undeniable ceiling he possesses. He’s expensive – and not in the best matchup – but is on home ice, so he’ll avoid most of St. Louis’ shutdown guys.
- Max Pacioretty, VGK (DK $7500 FD $6500) – Only seven NHL players averaging more shot attempts per 60 minutes than Pacioretty this season. The Golden Knights also have the highest projected shot total against the Rangers tonight (35.1) – and also have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate (3.2). Pacioretty is averaging 4.6 peripherals per game in his last 20.
- Jeff Carter, LA (DK $5000 FD $5200) – Carter is generating some impressive underlying numbers. He ranks No. 2 leaguewide in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes, ranks No. 3 in SOG per 60, and No. 7 in individual expected goals per 60. Although L.A. has struggled on home ice, the Duck have also lost 6 of their last 7 on home ice – something’s got to give tonight!
- Jaden Schwartz, STL (DK $5600 FD $5400) – The Blackhawks are reeling. Chicago gave up 12 goals to the Avs in two games over the weekend. Will they be able to stop the bleeding? If you don’t think so, Schwartz is a no-brainer for cash lineups tonight. He’s averaging nearly 5 peripherals per game in his last five – providing us a nice floor – while scoring at a 35-goal pace over his last 12 games…there’s the ceiling. Top line and PP1 minutes in this matchup, at this salary, with his combo of floor and ceiling…what could go wrong?
- Taylor Hall, NJ (DK $8100 FD $7400) – Hall has apparently been demoted to the third line. Is this a bad thing though? Buffalo has some of the thinnest depth in the league. Hall will now likely avoid any “shutdown” pieces the Sabres think they might have. Of course, Hall will still get top PP minutes – the Sabres have the league’s worst PK since November 1.
- Jonathan Marchessault, VGK (DK $6800 FD $6800) – Marchessault is a bit of a cheaper pivot from Pacioretty on DK if you want a piece of the Golden Knights. I love looking at shot percentages, as it can be a good indicator to find players about to go on a scoring binge. Marchy falls into that category right now – shooting at just a 5.4% clip this season, down 5 percentage points from his career 10.4%.
- Anders Lee, NYI (DK $5400 FD $5400) – Lee is really trying to break out of this funk he’s in. Over the last two weeks, only eight players are averaging more shots on goal per 60 minutes than Lee. He scored his first goal since November 1 against the Blue Jackets on Saturday. Is this the start of an overdue breakout from Lee? He certainly has a nice matchup tonight – facing a horrendous Red Wings team which has been absolutely brutal defensively.
- Brendan Lemieux, NYR (DK $3300 FD $3500) – This will be a tough test for the Rangers. On home ice, though, they’ve been averaging nearly 4 goals per game (3.9) in their last ten at MSG. Lemieux has been a surprising source of scoring of late – with 4 points (2G 2A) in his last seven games. He’s averaging 3 peripherals per game in this stretch, giving him a decent floor relative to salary. In addition, he’s been elevated to the Rangers top line – skating alongside of Zibanejad and Buchnevich. This game should have a nice pace to it tonight, so Lemieux is probably worth a shot as a low-risk flier.
- Adam Fox, NYR (DK $3900 FD $4400) – Another Ranger to consider for cash-game lineups, Fox is playing at a point-per-game pace over his last five (2G 3A). He’s also averaging over 4 peripherals per game in this stretch, giving us a really nice floor and ceiling for what is a fantastic price on both sites.
- Cam Fowler, ANH (DK $4400 FD $4800) – Fowler actually has 6 points (1G 5A) in his last five. He’s averaging just 3.8 peripherals per game, though, so I think I prefer Fox’s floor…and salary, of course. Still, Fowler and the Ducks have a nice matchup tonight against a Kings team ranked No. 27 in GA/game (3.3).
- Jacob Trouba, NYR (DK $6200 FD $4500) – At 5v5, only 3 defensemen leaguewide average more shots on goal per 60 minutes than Trouba. He’s averaging 4.5 peripherals per game over his last six, while averaging a point per game (2G 4A). He’s averaging over 23 minutes per game and has an irresistible salary on FanDuel.
- Shea Theodore, VGK (DK $5100 FD $4600) – Theodore is letting it rip in recent weeks. Over the past 15 days, Theodore ranks No. 4 amongst all skaters in individual shot attempts per 60 minutes – pretty impressive for a defenseman! Vegas is projected for over 35 SOG against the Rangers tonight, so expect Theodore to be letting them rip.
- Ryan Pulock, NYI (DK $5000 FD $4600) – Another mid-priced D-man providing solid floor + ceiling, Pulock averaging 4.4 peripherals per game over his last 20 and gets a matchup against Detroit – who ranks dead-last in GA/game (3.93). Pulock is on the ice for well over 20 minutes per game – don’t be surprised to see him on the score sheet tonight.
- Jon Merrill, VGK (DK $2500 FD $3500) – Here’s a min-priced punt special. Merrill ranks No. 9 in blocked shots per 60 minutes over the last 15 days. On DK, he’s hit the 3+ BS bonus three times in his last five. Although he’s not going to wind up on the score sheet very often, he is fully capable of 3 or 4x from peripherals alone…and allows you to pay up for another stud elsewhere.
Also consider: Erik Gudbranson (ANH), Sean Walker (LA)
- Ryan Miller, ANH (DK $8200 FD $7400)
- Corey Crawford, CHI (DK $7400 FD $7600)
- Jake Allen, STL (DK $7800 FD $7800)
- Henrik Lundqvist, NYR (DK $7300 FD $7600)
**Be sure to check out tonight’s Goalie Model for more goaltender analysis.