CJ Kaltenbach gives his percentage plays breakdown for mass multi-entry NFL GPP tournaments!
What’s going on everyone, welcome to the Seige Takes article. In this article, I’m going to take a look at my MME %’s as they stand now and compare it to the chalk at each position using the Elite Fantasy ownership projections. I’m also going to add a player or two you might be surprised to see! This is a new article, so I appreciate any feedback (positive or negative) you have on the format and obviously will be happy to try and optimize it to fit subscriber NFL GPP needs.
These are my percentages as of Saturday afternoon. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and lock, and I will be modifying these percentages/plays all the way up til lock. So, don’t take this as gospel for where I exactly end up but more of a guide.
1) Once again, I am scripting the FD Milly, so these ownership percentages are for that. As always, if there is a player I like more on DK, I’ll be sure to mention them at the bottom of the article.
2) With the unfortunate mass spread of COVID-19 in the NFL, it’s highly likely things could drastically change based on that. For the latest, tune in to the livestream at 11am ET on Sunday morning!
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned QB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Lamar Jackson – 13.92% (0%)
- Kyler Murray – 8.31% (0%)
- Patrick Mahomes – 8.09% (40%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Patrick Mahomes – 40%
- Ryan Tannehill – 30% (5.49%)
- Jared Goff – 30% (4.16%)
Analysis: Having lost the Packers and Bills to Saturday afternoon football, the decisions get harder in terms of what chalk to fade. Lamar Jackson is a fine option, but as you’ll see in the RB section, I’m going to go another direction with the Ravens. Akers and Henry are going to be two of the chalkiest RB’s on the slate, and I’m fading both. As such, I’m going to leverage the situation with their passing attacks instead, getting low owned Tannehill and low owned Goff in spots with some of the highest team totals of the week. Then, of course, since Mahomes is on the main slate, I’ll once again be overweight on him. Chiefs in a dome against a team that likes to play man coverage is a spot I can’t refuse.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: N/A
Small QB pool this week, so what you see is what I’m rostering!
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned RB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Derrick Henry – 24.85% (0%)
- Cam Akers – 24.28% (0%)
- Alvin Kamara – 23.52% (49%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- JK Dobbins – 80% (10.23%)
- Leonard Fournette – 50% (11.56%)
- Alvin Kamara – 49%
Analysis: Akers and Henry are going to be two of the chalkiest RB’s on the slate, and I’m fading both for different reasons. Akers, I’m fading because 1) Jets aren’t that bad against the run, 2) there are still 3 RB’s for the Rams, and Henderson was banged up heading into the TNF game, and 3) this is a good opportunity for the Rams to get the passing attack going. Fournette is a value option that lets me fit in all the studs I want to play. He should get the lead in the Tampa backfield, but I don’t feel great about it. Think of it as this week’s DeAndre Washington. Alvin Kamara with Brees back and MT out is just a smash spot. Yes, smash spot is overused, but that’s what it is this time. JK Dobbins, as the #1 RB on the Ravens, is my leverage off of Lamar. You could argue I should roster some more of the Pats backs and lower the ownership of Dobbins, but that’s not where I’m at for now.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: James White – 20% (Proj. own: 1.01%)
With Damien Harris out, James White and Sony Michel are in line for all the work in this spot against the Dolphins. While I’ll certainly have some Michel as a value RB option, I’m going to continue riding James White in big situations, and this week is no different, needing a win vs. the Dolphins. I think he gets the majority of the work.
Player I Want To Get More Of: Alvin Kamara
As I mentioned in the analysis section, this spot for Kamara is amazing. Going to do what I can to maximize my ownership of him this week.
Projected Top 5 Highest Owned WR’s (Seige’s ownership)
- Brandon Aiyuk – 15.33% (50%)
- Allen Robinson II – 12.40% (0%)
- Tyreek Hill – 11.53% (41%)
- Calvin Ridley – 11.09% (0%)
- Terry McLaurin – 10.75% (0%)
Seige’s Top 5 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Brandon Aiyuk – 50%
- Tyreek Hill – 41%
- Robert Woods – 34% (8.41%)
- CeeDee Lamb – 27% (1.99%)
- Michael Pittman – 25% (3.72%)
Analysis: Aiyuk was a great play last week, and I’m still kicking myself for not taking the stand on him. He’s been a WR1 for the last month and a half, and with no Samuel, he’ll get all the targets he can handle against a porous Dallas secondary. Tyreek Hill goes with all the Mahomes I have; against man coverage, this might be low, as another Tampa type game could be in the cards. Robert Woods pairs with my Goff. Lamb might be a tad high, but I don’t think the SF secondary is as good as people think, and Dallas certainly won’t run against SF, so the only hope for points is through the air. Pittman is my guy, gonna go down with that ship. He’s really good and comes at a nice value price. His ceiling is hard to match for the price.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Keke Coutee – 13% (Proj. own: 5.00%)
Coutee disappointed last week as mega-chalk, but with Cooks back, he’ll be back in his more comfortable slot-guy type role, and the targets should return. I know Hansen got a ton of targets, but with Cooks back, I expect those to disappear and head back to Coutee.
Player I Want To Get More Of: TY Hilton – 6% (Proj. own: 7.82%)
If I’m going to be high on the Colts, I can’t be underweight on the guy who torches the Texans for fun in his career. Hilton has emerged from the grave to be a WR1 the last couple of weeks, and being underweight in this spot feels wrong.
The field caught onto the “play Kelce every week” strategy for one week. But after a sub-par SNF performance, the field has left him, leaving him only about 20% owned. I’ll be around 60% once again in this nice match-up against the Saints, who really don’t have an answer defensively for him. After that, it’s just two punt TE options in Kmet and Logan Thomas. Logan Thomas did great with Haskins earlier in the season, and that pair is back. Also, Kmet has out-snapped Graham the last few weeks and shown he’s talented. That being said, the value TE’s have to catch a TD to be worth it, so lots of boom/bust with them.
Back to not having any strong DST leans, so I’ll be mixing and matching the Rams, Bucs, Ravens and Patriots. This list is definitely subject to change, as I’ll be spending some time between now and lock trying to find a defense I feel a little bit better about.
Good Luck everyone – If you have any questions, you can ask them during the 11am ET livestream with Ricky!
Looking for cash game information to balance your NFL GPP play? Read Jeff Mans’ Cash Game Breakdown!