CJ Kaltenbach gives his percentage plays breakdown for mass multi-entry NFL GPP tournaments!
What’s going on everyone, welcome to the Seige Takes article. In this article, I’m going to take a look at my MME %’s as they stand now and compare it to the chalk at each position using the Elite Fantasy ownership projections. I’m also going to add a player or two you might be surprised to see! This is a new article, so I appreciate any feedback (positive or negative) you have on the format and obviously will be happy to try and optimize it to fit subscriber NFL GPP needs.
Disclaimer/Common Sense:
These are my percentages as of Saturday afternoon. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and lock, and I will be modifying these percentages/plays all the way up til lock. So, don’t take this as gospel for where I exactly end up but more of a guide.
Notes:
1) Once again, I am scripting the FD Milly, so these ownership percentages are for that. As always, if there is a player I like more on DK, I’ll be sure to mention them at the bottom of the article.
2) With the unfortunate mass spread of COVID-19 in the NFL, it’s highly likely things could drastically change based on that. For the latest, tune in to the livestream at 11am ET on Sunday morning!
Quarterbacks
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned QB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Patrick Mahomes – 9.69% (50%)
- Russell Wilson – 6.59% (15%)
- Aaron Rodgers – 5.93% (20%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Patrick Mahomes – 50%
- Aaron Rodgers – 20%
- Russell Wilson – 15%
Analysis: With lots of good value this week, there is really no reason to pay down for QB. The stud QB’s are in the best team totals and have the best shot of being in the winning tournament lineup. As per usual, I’m taking a stand on Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have just learned they can’t run and just throw as much as possible. While the Dolphins have been sneaky bad in the red zone against the run, I’m not going crazy. I’ll make the Chiefs burn me first by actually running in the red zone successfully.
Wilson gets a nice rebound spot against the Jets. We saw the struggling Chiefs a few weeks ago using the Jets as a rebound spot, and it’s easy to see how the Seahawks would do the same thing. Aaron Rodgers is always a top option, and the Lions are bad against all types of offense. Could be a Rodgers 4+ TD spot.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Mike Glennon – 15% (Proj. own: 2.04%)
I’m not sure you are actually surprised to see Glennon back in the player pool, but he’s been not afraid to sling it around in the 1H to get the Jaguars leads (in fact, if they kept throwing, they prolly would win a game). One of these games, the coaches are just gonna let him air it out for four quarters, and this spot against a Tennessee secondary that has been picked apart by just about everyone is as good as any. Even if Tennessee gets out to a lead via the ground game, that will set up for Glennon to throw to get back into it.
Player I Want To Get More Of: N/A
Really happy with this pool this week; not expecting this to change at all.
Running Backs
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned RB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Derrick Henry – 24.07% (15%)
- David Montgomery – 17.18% (27%)
- Austin Ekeler – 14.20% (7%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- J.D. McKissic – 95% (10.47%)
- Jonathan Taylor – 47% (4.46%)
- David Montgomery – 27%
Analysis: Since I’m paying up for QB (and their stud pass catchers, as you’ll see later), I have to save money somewhere, and that spot is at RB with McKissic. With Antonio Gibson ruled out with turf toe, we will see McKissic ball again with him being heavily involved in the short passing game. While Peyton Barber is likely to troll the red-zone TD, McKissic has had a couple this year, so he’s not totally dead. I’m hoping for 90 yards from scrimmage, 6-7 catches and then the TD somehow.
I know I have trashed Jonathan Taylor and said I’d never roster him, but never in DFS really never means never, and you have to be willing to adapt to changing situations. Taylor has looked good the last couple of weeks, and a Swift-like takeover of the role is incoming sooner rather than later. The Las Vegas Raiders conceded over 200 yards rushing to the New York Jets. With the Colts OL getting healthy, there is no reason why the Colts can’t repeat this type of feat with Taylor being the primary guy. Montgomery is the chalk play in this tier, and despite not being that great last week, he did get into the end zone twice. This match-up is better, so I’m gonna play him as a mid-tier option to help me save money.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Aaron Jones – 15% (Proj. own: 10.44%)
Player I Want To Get More Of: Aaron Jones
With higher than expected ownership on Aaron Jones, I’m gonna have to get him up to the 20-30% range to take the stand I’m looking to take on him this week.
Wide Receivers
Projected Top 5 Highest Owned WR’s (Seige’s ownership)
- Davante Adams – 23.08% (37%)
- Robby Anderson – 13.94% (0%)
- Tyreek Hill – 12% (39%)
- Curtis Samuel – 10.33% (45%)
- Allen Robinson – 8.85% (1%)
Seige’s Top 5 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Curtis Samuel – 45%
- Mike Evans – 45% (3.70%)
- Keke Coutee – 42% (4.02%)
- DJ Chark – 41% (4.20%)
- Tyreek Hill – 39%
Analysis: Mike Evans is one of my favorite spots of the year. We’ve seen what Davante Adams has done to this team twice this year, and Evans is a similar type receiver. Sure, the Bucs have more options than GB, but still a great Evans spot. Decided to take a stand on Anderson vs. Samuel against the Broncos, but you could easily split if you wanted to, but I wanted the savings on Samuel. Coutee going to take over the Randall Cobb role. And in this spot against the Bears, he should be a frequent target for Watson, especially with David Johnson out due to COVID. As I mentioned in the QB section, I like Glennon so have a bunch of his top option in Chark, and the Tyreek Hill goes with my Mahomes stand.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Michael Gallup – 21% (Proj. own: 1.84%)
I’m paying close attention to the weather in Cincinnati, but right now, it looks good enough for me to take a stand on Gallup, who has been Dalton’s favorite target. Dallas has nothing to play for, and Cincy is bad against the pass, so you’d think the Cowboys would let him air it out. And if they do that, they should find some success. Gallup has the upside of a #1 WR without the price tag, which fits my lineup construction perfectly.
Player I Want To Get More Of: DK Metcalf – 6% (Proj. own: 8.75%)
This is a really good Seattle bounce-back spot, so I can’t be underweight on a top 5 NFL WR in this spot. Might have to cut Evans a bit to get to DK, but it’s the right decision.
Tight Ends
The field caught onto the “play Kelce every week” strategy for one week. But after a sub-par SNF performance, the field has left him, leaving him only about 20% owned. I’ll be around 60% once again in this nice match-up against the Dolphins, who really don’t have an answer defensively for him. After that, it’s playing correlation plays with a bunch of cheap TE’s who have upside. The list includes Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas. Waller made me pay the price last week for fading the #1 TE on the slate (really silly given my strategy all year to pay up and let everyone else catch-up). Hockenson could be in line for extra targets if Marvin Jones draws Jaire Alexander. Others are just salary-saving measures that have seen an uptick in usage.
Defenses
Back to not having any strong DST leans, so I’ll be mixing and matching the Chiefs, Bucs, Cowboys and Seahawks. This list is definitely subject to change, as I’ll be spending some time between now and lock trying to find a defense I feel a little bit better about.
Good Luck everyone – If you have any questions, you can ask them during the 11am ET livestream with Ricky!
Looking for cash game information to balance your NFL GPP play? Read Jeff Mans’ Cash Game Breakdown!
