CJ Kaltenbach gives his percentage plays breakdown for mass multi-entry NFL GPP tournaments!
What’s going on everyone, welcome to the Seige Takes article. In this article, I’m going to take a look at my MME %’s as they stand now and compare it to the chalk at each position using the Elite Fantasy ownership projections. I’m also going to add a player or two you might be surprised to see! This is a new article, so I appreciate any feedback (positive or negative) you have on the format and obviously will be happy to try and optimize it to fit subscriber NFL GPP needs.
These are my percentages as of Saturday afternoon. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and lock, and I will be modifying these percentages/plays all the way up til lock. So, don’t take this as gospel for where I exactly end up but more of a guide.
1) Once again, I am scripting the FD Milly, so these ownership percentages are for that. As always, if there is a player I like more on DK, I’ll be sure to mention them at the bottom of the article.
2) With the unfortunate mass spread of COVID-19 in the NFL, it’s highly likely things could drastically change based on that. For the latest, tune into the livestream at 11am ET on Sunday morning!
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned QB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Josh Allen – 15.27% (0%)
- Patrick Mahomes – 8.72% (70%)
- Derek Carr – 6.12% (12%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Patrick Mahomes – 70%
- Derek Carr – 12%
- Phillip Rivers – 10%
Analysis: Another week of me fading chalk Josh Allen for unowned Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Allen has the better rushing upside, but Mahomes has thrown over 40x in each of his last three games. Give me the high floor/ high ceiling of Mahomes, and I’ll worry about the rest later. I also think the Chargers will run more and slow that game down (more on that in a second). Derek Carr goes to ATL, and the passing attack has been great. It easily could be Jacobs and Booker again, but ATL gives up a ton of deep passes, so Carr to Agholor and Ruggs could win someone a lot of money. TEN/IND isn’t a game you’d expect me to be on, but with all the injuries in the Tennessee secondary and on the Colts DL, this game has VERY sneaky shootout potential. It’s a total in the 51.5 range, and I haven’t seen anyone talk about it, which is appealing.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Ryan Fitzpatrick – 8% (Proj. own: 0.22%)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best QB the Dolphins have right now, and so I’m happy to have him back against a bad Jets defense. While I’m not expecting him to have to shoot out, it’s possible the Jets could get 17-21 points, in which case Fitz has upside for 5 TD’s. He’ll come in really low owned, given he’s not cheap, and is worth a shot in MME scripts.
Player I Want To Get More Of: N/A
Really happy with the pool this week; not expecting this to change at all.
Projected Top 3 Highest Owned RB’s (Seige’s Ownership)
- Dalvin Cook – 26.41% (1%)
- James Robinson – 18.25% (0%)
- Josh Jacobs – 16.32% (10%)
Seige’s Top 3 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Austin Ekeler – 100% (wasn’t projected in when ownership’s were run)
- Derek Henry – 52% (11.6%)
- Brian Hill – 50% (7.37%)
Analysis: Dalvin Cook fade on FD is no fun, but at 11k, I just can’t pay the tag for a guy who isn’t a world-beater through the air and who is facing a Carolina defense that has dramatically improved throughout the year. I’m not wild about it, but going with as many Chiefs as I am, it’s just not plausible to take a stand on Cook. As such, I’m going to lock in Austin Ekeler in one of the highest total games at only 6.5k. I’m sure he’ll get to 30% owned on FD, but I don’t care. He’s an 8k back, given Ballage is hurt. I’m expecting a return to full work here. Derek Henry vs. the Colts wouldn’t seem like a great spot, but as I mentioned on the Core 4 show, the Colts are down three of their better run stoppers. As such, I think they are way worse than normal this week. 100/2 TD’s is what I’m expecting here in a shootout. Brian Hill is in for the injured Todd Gurley against a Raiders defense that has conceded some big games to RB’s. He’s a nice value that lets me fit in all my expensive Chiefs.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: James White – 25% (Proj. own: 3.17%)
I love James White, and honestly, this isn’t enough James White (see the want to get more of section). With no Rex Burkhead, he should get all the receiving back work in NE. In what should be an up-tempo game against the Cardinals, I expect him to be on the field a ton. As much as most people think the Pats are dead, they don’t think that, so they’ll use White as much as possible. FD isn’t his preferred site, but I think 100 all purpose yards and 2 TD’s is in the range of outcomes, and he’s very cheap.
Player I Want To Get More Of: James White
I bet every James White prop on the board, and as such, I really need to have more than 25% in my pool.
Projected Top 5 Highest Owned WR’s (Seige’s ownership)
- Stefon Diggs – 19.04% (0%)
- Keenan Allen – 17.74% (0%)
- Justin Jefferson – 17.54% (0%)
- Cole Beasley – 12.78% (0%)
- Robby Anderson – 10.17% (0%)
Seige’s Top 5 Owned (parenthesis is projected ownership)
- Tyreek Hill – 75% (9.13%)
- Michael Pittman – 61% (7.68%)
- Mike Evans – 43% (3.62%)
- Curtis Samuel – 18% (6.48%)
- Chris Godwin – 17% (3.98%)
Analysis: First slate all year I’m completely fading the top 5 WR’s, but here we are. I’m fading BUF/LAC passing attacks and hoping for the best (aka a ton of Ekeler work). Like with Cook, I’m not sure this CAR team is as bad as people want it to be. And if you don’t think CAR is coming in motivated for Teddy B, I think you are crazy. I’m going Samuel over Anderson again for the additional rushing upside I get with Samuel. The other top 4 make a ton of sense, given my QB pool. Lots of Mahomes leads to a ton of Hill (maybe I’ll add some Watkins if he’s in late tomorrow) and TB pass catchers. I don’t have a super-strong preference between Godwin, Evans and Antonio Brown, so I just let the optimizer do its magic on that.
Player You Might Be Surprised to See Is In Pool: Bisi Johnson – 11% (Proj. own: 0.54%)
Everyone is loading Cook and Jefferson as the guys who benefit with no Thielen, and it’s true. They should on paper, but they are coming with massive ownership boosts, as well. I’m gonna pivot and take Bisi Johnson, who is the likely replacement of the Thielen role. Is it a lock? No, but he’s the right type of WR to take on that role, and I’m not confident Chad Beebe or Tajae Sharpe is gonna beat him out for the snaps. Less of a sure thing, but if he does well, he’s nice leverage off the chalk Vikings.
Player I Want To Get More Of: Calvin Ridley – 1% (Proj. own: 7.25%)
Seems like every week, I’m underweight on Ridley, but with all the Carr and Jacobs I have, no reason to get cute and not have Ridley.
I’m sad the field has finally caught on to our play Kelce every week strategy, but I once again am going to be around 70% Kelce. I’ll have a bunch of Waller on my Carr teams and then some Gesicki on my Fitz teams, but once again, it’s all the Kelce I can jam into my lineups.
Back to not having any strong DST leans, so I’ll be mixing and matching the Giants, Dolphins, Bengals and Browns as my 4 DST’s. If Drew Lock can’t go for Denver due to close contact with Jeff Driskel, I’ll get over my fears of Dome D outside in the cold and make them a core play.
Really like the Glennon/WR/WR Jaguars stack. Let’s you plug in all the studs (including Cook, who I had to fade on FD cause of the 11k tag). Cleveland defense nothing to love so they definitely could get exploited here.
Good Luck everyone – If you have any questions, you can ask them during the 11am ET livestream with Ricky!
Looking for cash game information to balance your NFL GPP play? Read Jeff Mans’ Cash Game Breakdown!