Welcome to the NFL DFS WR Coach, where we identify the best wide receivers for our lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft!
Week 3 is in the books and we saw a ton of green screens coming in from the #EliteMafia. Big congrats to the winners and let’s keep the momentum going into Week 4! Before we dive into the meat and potatoes of this article, let’s do a quick recap for accountability reasons of how my receiver calls panned out. Remember, this position is highly volatile, but the primary focus is finding high target volume in plus matchups.
DeAndre Hopkins (10-137-0, 12 tgts) ✅
Calvin Ridley (5-110-0, 13 tgts) ✅
Adam Thielen (3-29-1, 5 tgts; 1-4-0 rushing) 🆗
Mike Evans (2-2-2, 4 tgts) ✅
Tyler Lockett (9-100-3, 13 tgts) ✅
D.K. Metcalf (4-110-1, 8 tgts) ✅
Cooper Kupp (9-107-1, 10 tgts) ✅
Allen Robinson (10-123-1, 13 tgts) ✅
CeeDee Lamb (5-65-0, 6 tgts; 1-1-0 rushing) 🆗
Diontae Johnson (0-0-0, 2 tgts; 1-9-0 rushing) [Injured]
GPP Yolo Call:
DeSean Jackson (2-11-0, 4 tgts) [Injured]
Injuries nixed the final two calls there, but it was overall a solid week without anyone cratering DFS lineups. Even the two players tabbed “OK” were hit by surprising outcomes. Rookie Justin Jefferson graduated to 2WR sets ahead of Olabisi Johnson on the depth chart, and in turn, saw career-highs across the board. That was not an expected outcome and we subsequently saw Adam Thielen post less than optimal results. CeeDee Lamb also ran a bit unlucky with Cedrick Wilson coming out of nowhere for another career performance (5-107-2). Overall, really proud of the receiver calls and ready to run it back for another profitable week here in Week 4!
It’s important to note this article is posted mid-week, so injuries and other news can change our reads as we get closer to Sunday. This article is specifically for Sunday’s “Main” slate, so WRs from Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football are not considered.
Michael Thomas (NO) @ DET Kenny Golladay (DET) vs NO I’m having a difficult time looking past the egregious pricing of Michael Thomas on DraftKings ($7,600) this week. After sporting a $9K salary in Week 1, this is a massive discount and one that I don’t want to fade in Week 4. It’s early in the week, but if we see Thomas graduate from a limited participant to full participant in practice, I’ll be eager to take this discount given Thomas’ matchup against a Detroit secondary facing multiple hamstring injuries. Though he’s played just one game, Thomas has run 69% of his routes from the outside. A hamstring injury has kept Desmond Trufant out since Week 1 and while he probably returns this week, it’s difficult to imagine he’ll be operating at 100%. Rookie Jeffrey Okudah has been targeted relentlessly in his first two games — once every 4.1 snaps in coverage (a top-3 rate). During the past two weeks, he’s allowed 12 receptions and 200 yards on 16 targets faced, mostly looking every bit a rookie against receivers like Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins.The Lions are currently top-12 in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, notably top-5 to perimeter wideouts. Take the injury price discount with MT and spend up elsewhere.
Now missing both of their top two perimeter corners, Kenny Golladay makes too much sense in this matchup to ignore.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) and Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ MIA
The Dolphins/Seahawks game will be a popular one for DFS players to gamestack and for good reason. Seattle’s passing attack has been electric with Russell Wilson throwing the ball on early downs, routinely putting the Seahawks in position to score points. Stacking Wilson with one or both of his primary pass catchers makes sense in this high-scoring atmosphere again as the large majority of targets (52%) and Air Yards (76%) has gone to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Miami’s offseason addition, CB Byron Jones, is still working his way back from a Week 2 groin injury and the Dolphins have had trouble rotating corners to mitigate his loss. In his absence, rookie Noah Igbinoghene has shifted from slot corner to outside. We saw Stefon Diggs take advantage of this mismatch in Week 2 with ease (8-153-1) and had Chris Conley actually been able to catch the ball, he’d have had a monster Week 3 TNF outing as well. Next up is big-play phenom, D.K. Metcalf (17.5 aDOT), who has hit 90+ receiving yards and a touchdown in three-straight. Last week, we saw the Dolphins run out Jamal Perry to defend the slot for Igbinoghene. After sporting a 41.3 coverage grade by PFF last year, Perry allowed every target he faced to be completed against him in Week 3. Tyler Lockett went off for three scores and 100 yards last week and once again finds himself in a terrific position to repeat. There are enough value plays on this slate where you can comfortably fit either one of the Seahawks pass catchers.
Stefon Diggs (BUF) @ LVR
Speaking of Diggs, the Bills passing attack is another one that’s been firing on all cylinders. Diggs has notably collected a 25% target share (9.3 tgts/game) and 29% of the Bills’ Air Yards with the trade to acquire him paying off in spades. There are multiple reasons to believe Diggs’ volume spikes here in Week 4. Let’ start with his own team. John Brown may be ruled out this week after leaving Week 3’s matchup early with a calf injury. He has yet to practice this week and is the primary contender for Diggs in both targets (16%) and in Air Yards (also at 29%). I mention the Air Yards because Diggs ranks second in the league in receptions of 15+ yards downfield (8) and faces a Raiders secondary that may be missing starter Damon Arnette (wrist/thumb). Josh Allen is currently top-6 in deep accuracy (not a typo) and the Raiders defense has allowed a 102.9 QB Rating on deep targets faced thus far. After a relatively quiet 4-49-1, I like Diggs chances of seeing expanded volume and succeeding here in this plus matchup.
Keenan Allen (LAC) @ TB
Coming off a 19-target outing, Keenan Allen will likely be a popular cash game option this week as he takes on a Buccaneers secondary likely without their starting slot corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting (groin), who left last week’s game early due ton injury. Allen — a 47% slot receiver — will mostly square off against Murphy-Bunting’s replacement, rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. Per SportsInfoSolutions, Winfield Jr. played in the slot on just 4% of his defensive snaps his final year at Minnesota with the converted safety playing out of position here. Rookie Justin Herbert looks to have eyes for Allen, targeting him on 37% of his attempts. That’s led to 29 total targets over the past two weeks. If we get definitive news that Mike Williams (hamstring) is also ruled out, we should anticipate that elevated target volume to sustain itself another week with the Chargers being +7.5 road dogs this week.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) vs JAX
Tyler Boyd played brilliantly for the Bengals in Week 3, routinely exposing slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman and turning in a strong 13-target outing for a 10-125-0 stat line. Look for Boyd to build on that success in Week 4 with a home matchup against a struggling Jaguars secondary that just gave up three passing touchdowns a week ago. Boyd — 67% slot rate to start the year — will run the plurality of his routes against slot corner D.J. Hayden. Through three weeks, Hayden has allowed 12-of-14 targets against to be completed for 154 yards and a score. Among all slot corners, he’s notably allowed a league-high 106 yards after the catch and comes in as PFF’s No. 105 graded cornerback (out of 109). In a game with a close spread (-3.5 CIN) that has seen it’s game total climb four points since opening (up to 48.5 points now), expect the pass-happy Bengals (68.9%, 2nd-highest pass rate) to target Boyd frequently in this plus matchup.
Will Fuller (HOU) vs MIN
Will Fuller bounced back well from a mysterious Week 2 leg injury, playing on 94% of the offensive snaps and leading the team in routes run and targets. A 4-54-1 receiving stat line against a tough Pittsburgh secondary isn’t bad at all and those are numbers he can build upon here in Week 4 against this beaten up Vikings secondary. Minnesota has allowed the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wideouts — where Fuller runs 88% of his routes — and starting corners Holton Hill (PFF’s No. 104 CB) and Cameron Dantzler (rib) are either battling injuries or incompetence. Dantzler’s replacement, rookie Jeff Gladney, hasn’t performed much better with all three of Hill (120.6 QB Rating when targeted), Gladney (121.5), and Dantzler (154.5) all struggling immensely in coverage. Variance is always to be expected with Fuller, even when healthy, but this is absolutely a matchup he should dominate in this week with the Texans desperately trying to get a notch in that “Win” column.
Odell Beckham (CLE) @ DAL
The Browns have been run-heavy to start the year (52.7%, second-highest rate), but a matchup against the sieve of a secondary Dallas is putting out there is a great spot for us to target Odell Beckham for DFS purposes. The corners of Dallas continue to get hit with injuries as we now turn to backups Trevon Diggs and Daryl Worley to man the perimeter for Dallas. Beckham’s 87% perimeter route rate puts him squarely against these two, a plus advantage for OBJ. Diggs has been targeted heavily by opposing QBs to start the year with the rookie getting targeted once every 5.6 coverage snaps. He’s allowed two touchdowns already and a 131.4 QB Rating when targeted. The injuries to the secondary elevated Worley to starter status last week against SEA, where he allowed every target against him to be completed and had an illegal contact penalty charged against him. While the Browns have skewed run heavy to start the year, Beckham’s been notably heavily targeted with respect to how frequently the Browns pass. Among all receivers with 12+ targets, Beckham is currently sixth in targets per route run. The Cowboys are a fast-paced offense, currently ranking first in both plays per game and seconds per snap (neutral gamescript). It should force the Browns to subsequently speed things up if they fall behind. Beckham is a pristine target for Dallas gamestack bring-backs or just as a one-off play at his salary (WR23 on DK).
DeVante Parker (MIA) vs SEA
Through the first three weeks of the season, no team has allowed more passing yards against than the Seahawks. Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, they’ve notably given up over 300+ receiving yards exclusively to opposing wide receivers. As such, they are No. 1 in most fantasy points to both perimeter and slot receivers. It truly sets up the entire Dolphins passing attack for a great Week 4, but with ownership likely gravitating toward the cheaper Preston Williams — who is a better play on SuperDraft at 1.7x multiplier — I’ll be paying up a little more to get a hopefully lesser-owned DeVante Parker in lineups this week. Parker runs over 80% of his routes from the perimeter where he’ll square off against outside corners Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. Griffin leads all corners in receptions and receiving yards allowed while Dunbar is going at less than 100% battling a knee injury (missed Week 3). Dunbar’s potential replacement, Tre Flowers, is PFF’s No. 94 CB and is allowing a 152.1 QB Rating in coverage. It’s also shaping up to be a week with safety Jamal Adams also out. Playing at home against a Seahawks secondary that’s struggling with both injuries and poor performance, Parker should face little difficulty in this matchup putting up points.
D.J. Moore (CAR) vs AZ
It has pained me to wait until Week 4 to bring up D.J. Moore in this WR column, but we finally draw the perfect matchup for us to utilize him this week. Through the first three weeks of the season, Moore sports a 25% target share (8.7 tgts/game) and a ridiculous 48% of the Panthers’ Air Yards — second-highest rate in the league. Running 75% of his routes from the outside, he’ll square off against a Cardinals secondary that has recently let outside receivers Terry McLaurin (7-125-1, 10 tgts) and Kenny Golladay (6-57-1, 7 tgts) hit paydirt in back-to-back weeks. The Cardinals year-to-date numbers are artificially inflated considering the opposing offenses they’ve faced to date (SF, WAS, DET), but I think we’ll see Moore utilized in a similar fashion to how McLaurin was in Week 2 — slants and drags with some vertical concepts thrown in. Moore’s heavy target rate should lead to increased target volume with the Panthers likely being forced to pass more frequently in this gamescript. The Cardinals not only have a -3.5 spread in their favor, they also operate top-6 in both plays/game and seconds/snap. Patrick Peterson (PFF’s No. 83 CB) and Dre Kirkpatrick (No. 102) will likely have their hands full trying to keep Moore in check this week.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) @ HOU
Justin Jefferson exploded in Week 3 as he rewarded the Vikings coaching staff for elevating him to the WR2 role. He finally took over for Olabisi Johnson, running a route on 91% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and picking up a 33% target share. His 7-175-1 stat line (9 targets) doesn’t feel like just a flash in the pan. It might feel like chasing, but I think these types of performances will be commonplace for Jefferson in this offense so take advantage of the cheap salary now. With Adam Thielen likely drawing Bradley Roby in coverage, Jefferson draws the far softer WR/CB matchup against Houston’s Vernon Hargreaves — a corner we routinely targeted last season. Last year, Hargreaves ranked top-5 in both receptions and receiving yards allowed to opposing receivers. Gamescript hasn’t led to the Texans being passed against frequently — we’ve seen KC, BAL, and PIT cruise to victories against this squad — but Hargreaves has been targeted at a top-10 rate per snap in pass coverage. Based on matchup and gamescript this is absolutely not chasing and a solid source of salary relief, especially on FD.
Other WRs of Note: Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, Hunter Renfrow, Damiere Byrd
Yolo Sub-5% GPP Play
Marquise Brown (BAL) @ WAS
Many of us are projecting the Ravens to easily win this matchup against Washington. If we follow the narrative of Baltimore prioritizing correcting their mistakes against Kansas City last week, it’s not an issue they have in their run game — they totaled 21-158-0 (7.5 YPC) on the ground last week — it’s in their passing attack where the issues lie. Lamar Jackson was 15-of-28 (53.6%) for 97 passing yards (3.5 YPA) and one passing touchdown. WR Marquise Brown had two brutal drops and I imagine they try to get him going after his slow start to the year. Despite low box score results, Brown still leads the team in both target share (24%) and market share of Air Yards (34%). Washington is giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers which is where Brown runs 67% of his routes. Prior to last week’s game against the run-heavy Browns, Washington’s defense was tied for top-6 in most Explosive Pass Plays allowed (15+ yards). Brown’s 13.8 average depth of target puts him right there as an explosive playmaker and we know he has the speed to take any pass to the house. We always have to worry about the Ravens taking their foot off the gas in terms of passing rate, but playing in essentially their back yard here in Washington, I think there’s a possibility we see them prioritize what went wrong last week and address the passing game head-on, especially early in the game. Given his 3.1% projected ownership, I think he provides some fantastic leverage if some of the chalky receivers in his price range at wide receiver bust this week.