Welcome to the NFL DFS WR Coach, where we identify the best wide receivers for our lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft!
Week 9 is in the books and we saw a ton of green screens coming in from the #EliteMafia. Big congrats to the winners and let’s keep the momentum going into Week 10! Before we dive into the meat and potatoes of this article, let’s do a quick recap for accountability reasons of how my receiver calls panned out. Remember, this position is highly volatile, but the primary focus is finding high target volume in plus matchups.
Stefon Diggs (9-118-0, 12 tgts) ✅
Julio Jones (5-54-1, 7 tgts) ✅
Tyler Lockett (4-40-0, 7 tgts) 🟥
Adam Thielen (2-38-0, 5 tgts) 🟥
Justin Jefferson (3-64-0, 4 tgts) 🟥
Brandin Cooks (3-83-1, 9 tgts) ✅
Marvin Jones (3-43-1, 4 tgts) ✅
Diontae Johnson (6-77-0, 10 tgts) 🆗
Cole Beasley (3-39-0, 3 tgts) 🟥
Jerry Jeudy (7-125-1, 14 tgts) ✅
GPP Yolo Call: Allen Robinson (7-81-0, 9 tgts) ✅
We had some mixed results in Week 9 for these WR calls. After some solid weeks in this article we sported four duds that we should zoom in a bit here. The first one is Tyler Lockett, who fell flat in an ideal spot against the Bills. It was a perfect matchup, he was seeing ideal target volume, and gamescript even played out perfectly (Bills getting the early lead). The process for landing on Lockett wasn’t wrong, we just had variance swing against us on that call. We can live with that. The Vikings double receiver call was a dud. Minnesota built an early lead and ran the ball with Dalvin Cook extensively. Had Matthew Stafford played the full game and made it more competitive, perhaps we would’ve gotten to see a bit more passing from Minnesota. The Vikings’ tandem of backs combining for 8.1 yards per carry against DET made that an easy call once they established their early lead. The final dud was Cole Beasley, who appeared to be just about the only Bills pass catcher that put up a dud. When the ancillary pieces hit for big outings, the production has to be sapped from somewhere. Beasley was the victim there with a lowly three-target outing. I’m still searching for my first clean sweep of green checkmarks this season and while it’s early in the week, I’m feeling pretty good about Week 10 already. Let’s dive into it!
It’s important to note this article is posted mid-week, so injuries and other news can change our reads as we get closer to Sunday. This article is specifically for Sunday’s “Main” slate, so WRs from Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football are not considered.
Stefon Diggs (BUF) @ AZ
Vegas has this matchup as the highest scoring game of the week as two electric offenses go toe-to-toe in the desert. PFF and ESPN both project Diggs to get shadowed by Patrick Peterson in this week’s matchup. As we’ve seen for much of this year, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Quick-twitch receivers like Diggs are the exact type of receivers that Patrick (age 30) has difficulty tracking closely at this stage of his career. My mind immediately goes to Terry McLaurin and how easily he shed Peterson’s coverage in that game (7-125-1). The Bills will also move Diggs all the formation and whenever he escapes Patrick’s coverage — either by shifting him into the slot where Patrick doesn’t travel or through pre-snap motion — we could see some spectacular results given the state of the Cardinals’ cornerback depth chart. Byron Murphy (COVID), Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh), and Kevin Peterson (concussion) leave little for DC Vance Joseph to try and slow down this prolific Bills passing attack. We still need final injury reports, but at this time, it looks like another great week to turn back to Josh Allen stacks in DFS beginning with his top receiver, Stefon Diggs.
Keenan Allen (LAC) @ MIA
One of the biggest mismatches of the week will be whenever Keenan Allen (47% slot rate) shifts inside against Miami to take on Nik Needham in the slot. Needham has been downright brutal in coverage this season. In the four games he’s started, he’s allowed a 74% completion rate and 9.3 yards per target. The Dolphins rank in the bottom half of the league in production allowed to opposing slot receivers and are giving up the 12th-most FPPG overall to opposing receivers. Allen continues to see an absurd target share in this Chargers offense (30%) and has posted double-digit target totals in six of his last seven games. Look for Allen to continue to build on his terrific 2020 campaign with a strong outing this week.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) and Robert Woods (LAR) vs SEA
The Seahawks pass defense is the gift that keeps on giving. They rank first in fantasy points to outside receivers and second in fantasy points allowed to the slot. Injuries remain an issue here with slot cornerback Ugo Amadi (hamstring) still not practicing in full, giving us the potential for Cooper Kupp to run routes against Amandi’s replacement, third-stringer D.J. Reed. Either corner is a massive mismatch for Kupp in the slot as he’s coming off a 20-target outing in Week 8 and fresh off his team’s bye week. The matchup on the outside for Robert Woods also carries injury question marks with Shaq Griffin (concussion/hamstring) not practicing and Quinton Dunbar (knee) also sidelined. The Rams have been a run-first offense this season but with Seattle allowing a historic number of passing yards defensively, look for Sean McVay to devise some creative ways to exploit them after an extra week of preparation. Just know that Jared Goff stacks with Kupp and Woods — who combine for 45% of the target share and 47% of the Air Yards — will be popular. If looking to mix things up in larger field contests, feel free to turn to Josh Reynolds (14% target share, 25% Air Yards) who leads the team in red zone targets (11) and end zone targets (4) and offers immense salary relief.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) @ DET
A change in quarterback will likely create apprehension among the DFS community when it comes to rostering Terry McLaurin this week, but his salary on FanDuel (WR13, $7,000, 11.7%) makes him an intriguing option that’s tough to overlook. Not only are we getting a significant discount compared to DraftKings (WR8, $6,800, 13.6% of salary), but this matchup is absolutely an exploitable one for a receiver like F1. The Lions are inability to defend the pass is well documented at this point. They are giving up the seventh-most FPPG to outside receivers which is where McLaurin runs over 70% of his routes. Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah are both among league leaders in fantasy points per route covered and given the Lions’ lack of pass rush, Alex Smith should have little difficulty pushing the ball downfield to McLaurin when he opts to not check down to his running back. Gamescript is a bit of a question mark here as we saw the Vikings passing attack falter in the second half after a fantastic start, but the value — particularly on FanDuel — is a bit too hard to overlook this week for F1.
Will Fuller (HOU) @ CLE
Will Fuller has been on an absolute tear this year. Aside from his Week 2 goose egg due to injury, he has reached the end zone in all but one game this season. In the lone game he failed to score, he still managed a rock-solid 8-112-0 stat line. Fuller now squares off against a Cleveland secondary that is giving up the fifth-most FPPG to opposing wideouts this year. Fuller runs 43% of his routes from the left side of the formation, setting him up to spend most of his day aligned across from backup corner, Terrance Mitchell. Mitchell hasn’t been terrible in coverage per PFF’s charting, but he does lead the team in receptions and receiving yards allowed. In fact, eleven different wide receivers have scored 15+ PPR points against this unit and they’re currently top-5 in most receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. Fuller leads the Texans in both red zone targets (14) and end zone targets (5) and has a strong shot at making this his seventh consecutive game reaching paydirt.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) @ LVR
Jerry Jeudy enters this matchup red-hot, coming off a recent surge in targets that have led in him drawing target shares of 26% and 31% the last two weeks. He’s also cleared 150+ Air Yards in back-to-back outings and now draws a plus matchup against a Raiders secondary that is allowing the 10th-highest rate of explosive pass plays this year (15+ yards). Seeing quality target volume, look for Jeudy to turn a hefty percentage of those looks into receptions this week as he runs most of his routes against the outside tandem of Nevin Lawson and Trayvon Mullen. We’ve seen multiple opposing No. 1 receivers hit the century mark against this defense, a unit that grades out No. 26 in Pass DVOA and has PFF’s No. 32 Pass Rush grade. The duo of Lawson (104.8 QB Rating allowed) and Mullen (125.7 QB Rating allowed) have combined for five touchdowns allowed in coverage while forcing zero interceptions. Don’t be afraid to go back to the well with Jeudy again this week in a beatable matchup against this Raiders pass defense.
Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs CIN
Big Ben hurt his knee in last week’s matchup and is now on the COVID list. Assuming he plays, this looks like a great spot for Diontae Johnson to continue tearing up the league. Johnson’s biggest enemy this season has been health, but in games where he’s played without an early exit, he’s reached double-digit targets in all but one (4-of-5). He now draws a matchup against a Bengals secondary that is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to outside receivers. Left cornerback LeShaun Sims is our primary target here as his side of the field is allowing second-most FPPG to opposing right wide receivers. Oddly enough, Johnson lines up on both the right side of the formation and the left an equal 41% of the time (18% slot). Chase Claypool is also a threat to exploit this coverage, but with Johnson’s steady target share, he’d be the preferred Pittsburgh pass catcher to attack this weakness assuming Roethlisberger is good to go.
DeVante Parker (MIA) vs LAC
It wouldn’t shock at all to look back Sunday night and see that this Dolphins/Chargers game turned out to be a high-scoring, pass-heavy affair. Each squad here enters this matchup super thin at running back and we know the Chargers are a squad that routinely pushes the tempo in neutral gamescript. DeVante Parker (20% target share) projects for a spike in overall target volume with two of his primary contenders for looks — Preston Williams (14% target share) and Myles Gaskin (16%) — both currently on IR. Parker’s matchup against Casey Hayward and Michael Davis doesn’t particularly stand out from a WR/CB lens, but keeping pace of play and uptick in targets in mind, it looks like a week we can turn to the Dolphins’ top pass catcher. Opponents are passing against the Chargers at a top-six rate (61.9%) and Tua Tagovailoa leaned on Parker last week in their competitive game against Arizona. Parker was targeted a team-high seven times while leading the squad in routes run despite getting shadowed by Patrick Peterson. The pricing algorithm at DraftKings missed something when analyzing the Dolphins this week as the put DeVante Parker at a very palatable $5K and he offers great correlation with a Keenan Allen mini-stack.
Other WRs of Note: D.K. Metcalf, John Brown, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Boyd, Chris Conley (if Shenault sits), Josh Reynolds
Yolo Sub-5% GPP Play
Jalen Reagor (PHI) @ NYG
I’m sliding Jalen Reagor down to the sub-5% play after seeing our Ownership Projections currently have him at 4.5% on DK and 1.8% on FD.
We recently saw Eagles/Giants play out not too long ago (Week 7) in a game where Carson Wentz aired out the ball 43 times for a 350+ yard outing. The Giants paired top cornerback James Bradberry against DeSean Jackson in that game, but with DJax now on IR, look for them to line up Bradberry against the big-bodied Travis Fulgham for much of this matchup. Reagor returned from a multi-week injury to log a season high in targets (six) in Week 8 before the team’s Week 9 bye, but with an extra week to get healthy and prepare, look for Reagor to make a significant impact for the Eagles’ passing attack down the final stretch of the regular season. Poised to run most of his routes against cornerback Isaac Yiadom (PFF’s No. 85 graded CB), Reagor not only provides salary relief but finds himself in a plus matchup against the Giants’ pass-funnel defense. Yiadom has been very generous to opposing wideouts this season, allowing a 70% completion rate, 11.3 YPT, and 146.9 QB Rating when targeted. The Giants have allowed opposing WR2’s to score an extra 3.3 DK points over expectation in their last five games setting up Reagor as a great value play this week.
Reagor looks like a fantastic play off what projects to be a chalky Dallas Goedert (11.2% DK, 6.6% FD) and nobody will want to play both of them in the same lineup outside of Carson Wentz stacks. Considering Wentz doesn’t come in top-10 in ownership on either site, that subsequently puts Reagor in play as a guy who could come in even lower than our ownership projections have him given all the value this week at running back. I’m fully on board with Ricky Sanders and his recommendation of PHI stacks, but if looking for a one-off play to help jam in studs, Reagor possesses an affordable salary, quality target share, beatable matchup, and an elite ceiling as the team’s primary downfield threat.