Seige with his ranked plays and analysis for tonight’s eight-game NBA GPP slate!!
What’s going on, Mafia? I hope everyone enjoyed the shortened NBA offseason. I want to wish everyone a happy and safe new year. The sites have some nice contests in the lobbies for tonight’s eight-game NBA GPP slate, so let’s get right into it.
Players are based on FD pricing/positions. Plays noted with (DK) are notably good plays on DraftKings. Please read the entire article, as the rankings are explained in the bottom half (along with what news can radically shift these rankings).
PG:
- Coby White
- Luka Doncic
- Lou Williams (assuming Beverley is out + he plays)
- Reggie Jackson (assuming either Beverley or Lou Will is out)
- Jrue Holiday
SG:
- Hamidou Diallo
- Jordan Clarkson
- Donte DiVincenzo
- Cam Reddish
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SF:
- Jaylen Brown (very questionable)
- Khris Middleton
- Brandon Ingram
- De’Andre Hunter
- Otto Porter Jr.
- Kawhi Leonard
PF:
- James Johnson
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Lauri Markkanen (assuming no min limit news)
- Brandon Clarke
- Darius Bazley
C:
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Willie Cauley-Stein
- Karl-Anthony Towns
- Nikola Vucevic
- Al Horford
FanDuel:
Top Stud over $8k: Luka Doncic
Top Value under $5k: James Johnson
FD Core: Jaylen Brown, James Johnson, Lou Williams
DraftKings:
Top Stud over $8k: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Top Value under $5k: James Johnson
DK Core: Lauri Markkanen, Jaylen Brown, James Johnson
Slate Notes
- Key Injury News to Watch:
Boston Celtics – I’ve ruled in Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye, which would (somehow) give the Celtics 10 players for this game. Should Jaylen Brown be ruled out, this turns into a Heat/Philly type situation where Boston has eight players. Top plays would be Marcus Smart, Peyton Pritchard, Aaron NeSmith and Daniel Theis, and I’d be looking to have a minimum of two Celtics per lineup (the match-up against the depleted Magic would be great).
New Orleans Pelicans – Lonzo Ball has been ruled out, and Eric Bledsoe is questionable with eye irritation. Should Bledsoe not be able to go, Alexander-Walker would immediately become a chalk option due to his (unreal) game against the Clippers last time out. However, Zion Williamson has been cleared to return, and with him and Ingram, it’s unlikely the fourth quarter offense turns into NAW pick-and-shoot every possession. This could be a nice piece of chalk to fade for similarly priced SGs (Jordan Clarkson, Buddy Hield). Should Eric Bledsoe play, he would be an interesting option at 5.3k, as there will be extra usage and minutes with no Lonzo Ball.
Los Angeles Clippers – Lou Williams is questionable with a hip issue, and Patrick Beverley is questionable with a personal issue. Unlike in the past, where personal issues were 50/50 as to whether the player would play so far, I have yet to see a player pop-up on the injury report for a personal issue on the road and play the same day. I speculate this is due to the COVID-19 protocols, but I can’t say for sure.
Regardless, this leads me to ruling out Beverley, which (if healthy) would make Lou Williams a great play. As one of the two late-games (NOP/LAL being the other), this puts you in an interesting spot. Right now, I plan to leave two slots open so I can go from Lou Williams to Reggie Jackson (who would be a great play if both Lou Will and Beverley are out) and then upgrade somewhere else. As a late-game, this puts me in a situation to get an optimal play at very low ownership.
- Key Games:
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City – Two teams that normally can’t get out of their own way on the defensive end going up against two teams that can beat up on bad defenses and struggle mightily against good defenses. Lauri Markkanen will make his return tonight and is underpriced on every site. Darius Bazley is questionable for the Thunder, and if he goes, he’s a great play. If he sits, boosts to all the other starters, and my man Pokusevski would be in line for a big minute’s boost. This is a game I want to attack because it won’t be trendy because there is no obvious value but it does have underpriced good players which makes it appealing for a contrarian game stack.
Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks – Obviously, any game with Giannis vs. Luka Doncic is going to be a key game for the slate, but it’s also about what players are going to have to play more or less based on the match-ups. James Johnson is one of the top value plays for me on the entire slate because the Bucks are a big team (Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Giannis speak for almost all the minutes at the 4/5 spots), and with no Dorian Finney-Smith or Maxi Kleber, the only big guys the Mavericks have are Porzingis (on a 24-30 min limit), Willie Cauley-Stein and James Johnson.
Johnson has the size and quickness to attempt to guard Giannis while providing just enough 3-point shooting to keep Giannis out of the paint. I like James Johnson to play 30+ minutes if this game is competitive, and he’s priced as a guy playing 24-26 minutes. Dallas also will need 3-point shooting to beat the Bucks, so don’t sleep on Tim Hardaway Jr. or Trey Burke as sneaky GPP guys with huge ceilings. The Bucks are the Bucks; you play the semi-big 3 (Jrue, Middleton, Giannis), and in an MME type build, Donte DiVincenzo.
- Slate Edges: Playing James Johnson and fading Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Don’t miss today’s Cheat Sheet to finalize your NBA GPP lineups!
