Identify the players on tonight’s NBA DFS slate who have the safest floors for your DraftKings & FanDuel cash game lineups!
Solid seven-game slate of NBA DFS games for Tuesday. Much like yesterday, we have some big spreads in the games today with all but the Milwaukee/Toronto match having a spread of 5-12 points. Only Indiana vs. Charlotte and Denver vs. Detroit are double-digit spreads though, so hopefully, we can have some at least semi-competitive games today. Those are also the two games with the lowest projected totals, so from a macro standpoint, it makes sense to be very unexposed to them. Also from a macro view, we see two games that we should have exposure to for this slate. The first is the aforementioned Bucks/Raptors match, and the other is Pelicans/Lakers.
Both games feature good teams that play higher scoring games. They are also some of the better defensive teams in the league, so it’s a balancing act trying to factor in how much the good defenses are going to suppress the good offenses. Still, those two games have the highest totals, and even with solid defenses, we should be looking to get pieces of those games.
The Boston/Portland game and Sacramento/Golden State are the late games and frankly very juicy ones too. We have injuries on both sides of that game in Portland, and that opens up value to each team. Sacramento has a soft match, and based on the news for Draymond and Marquese Chriss, we may have a very undermanned Warriors team today too. Not only has this roster been crushed by injuries, but they also traded away a few pieces and are now very thin top to bottom. That would mean guys like Looney and Bender could see big minutes if Chriss and Draymond remain out.
I do not have a lot of listed Warriors, as this team is not that good right now, but the prices on some of these guys would put them in play if both Dray and Chriss sit. If either of those two go, I’m not likely to be dumpster diving on the Warriors bigs.
We have a few interesting guys who remain questionable this morning. We mentioned the Warriors duo of Green and Chriss already. In addition, we have Victor Oladipo, Bruce Brown, Brook Lopez and Wendell Carter. Each of them could help and/or hurt a few guys on their respective teams, so we will have to watch out for news and adjust from there. Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker should be facing off today as well, but both of them are injured. That is a tougher spot to go heavy on, but the absence of those two definitely opens up a ton of value elsewhere on their respective teams as well.
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Top Projected Total
- Lakers – 123.25
- Celtics – 117
- Kings – 116.75
- Bucks – 116.25
- Pelicans – 115.25
- Raptors – 114.75
Biggest Pace Bump
- Raptors: +4.1
- Lakers: +3
- Kings: +2.2
- Hornets: +2
Highest Projection over Average
- Lakers: +8.5
- Kings: +8.25
- Warriors: +4.5
- Celtics: +3.75
- Nuggets: +3.5
NBA DFS Position By Position
- De’Aaron Fox – Love this spot for Fox. The Warriors actually pace up the Kings, and Sacramento on the road is projected for 8.5 points above their seasonal average against a bad defensive team. We really do not have any super expensive point guards with many of them playing last night and the top ones today being injured. Of the guys in that $7K range on FanDuel, I have the most faith and interest in Fox for both a high floor and upside.
- Eric Bledsoe (FD) – Bledsoe on FanDuel is $5800 and seems cheap here today. Granted, this is not an easy match, but it’s actually a positive for Bledsoe. The Bucks have been blowing people out on a near-daily basis, and I doubt they do that to the Raptors in Toronto. This is one of the few games I do expect the Bucks guys to play a few extra minutes, and at the discounted price, you have to be interested. On DK, he’s $1100 more and granted with the match being a bit tough, I’m not looking to play him there.
- Coby White – He’s really stepped up over the last week, going for 37 or more in three of the last four games. He also played 32+ minutes in those three games. He’s played 32+ minutes three times before last week and went for over a fantasy point per minute in two of those three as well. He’s right around $5K and projects for another 30 minutes, as Dunn and Hutchinson remain out and Valentine is still questionable. The lack of depth has led to increased court time, and White has produced it.
- CJ McCollum – This is a brutal match, and his price is jacked up beyond belief, so I’m not forcing him in. With that said, the role he is playing without Dame is one that could still lead to upside, even at an elevated price in a bad match. I actually have the combo at the bottom of the list on my cash team on FD right now, but he’s the guy who I like the most if you are paying up.
- Kris Middleton (FD) – This is more of an FD play because of the pricing. I know he went nuts again last night against the Wizards, but you have to discount any efforts vs. Washington, as the way they play tends to give a bunch of ceiling games to their opponents. Still, for the discount from CJ and LaVine, you really can’t argue against Middleton here. He’s an SF on DK; this always screws up people when I list him here at SG, which is his FD position. That Raptors defense is tough, but like Bledsoe, he could easily see more minutes than normal. I will say I think two Bucks in cash is more than enough. I am not likely to play Bledsoe, Middleton and Giannis together in cash, and on FD, Middleton is currently my odd man out.
- Damion Lee – Lee has been very solid for a very bad Warriors team. I like him because I’d be willing to roll him in cash even if Draymond and/or Chriss do play. Lee is not expensive, has been good to great recently in terms of points per dollar, and even though they are a home dog, the Warriors do project for four points above their normal average too.
- Marcus Smart (FD) – The $6100 price on DK is a bit much for a guy who really does not have massive upside with everyone healthy. He does have a solid floor, and without Kemba, I think that gets more of a bump than his ceiling does. Smart on FD is just $5300, and he’s a 30ish fantasy point a game kind of guy. Without Kemba, that’s actually even been closer to 38 fantasy points, which would be upside if he hits that at his FD price today.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – He averages 1.9 fantasy points per minute, and this is a game where he should see more minutes than his usual, which is just about 30. Giannis produces against everyone and anyone, so he’s basically matchup proof. In fact, I like him more in tougher games, because that tends to mean more minutes. Is he pricey? Absolutely. He is expensive? Not for the production. Remember, price and value are two different things. It’s ok to pay a lot for something that is great and still think you got a bargain. Getting a cheap piece of crap may not cost as much, but it’s a cheap piece of crap for a reason.
- Jaylen Brown – Brown is cheaper than Gordon Hayward, and after sitting out a game, he’s played 33 and 38 minutes in the last two and went over 6X his price today in both. This is a paced up spot with a projection above average for the Celtics. No Kemba has always been a boost to his scoring as well, so lots of arrows pointing up and a fair price to take the chance.
- Harrison Barnes – Harrison Barnes is a frustrating player. He has a lot of talent, but he sometimes plays a ton of minutes and does nothing fantasy-wise. With Buddy Hield sliding to the second unit and the frontcourt being so banged up, Barnes has produced pretty well lately. He’s played 36+ minutes in four of the last five, with the other game being a blowout. He scored at least 32 fantasy points in all of them, and with his price remaining around $5K range, that’s a 6X+ return on investment.
- Jayson Tatum – Tatum has really stepped up lately. With Kemba out, this has become his team. He’s averaged 30/8 with a handful of assists, steals and blocks over the last eight games and is averaging around 50 fantasy points. He’s going to draw old man Melo on defense today too, so he should be able to dominate again. I project him for slightly more than Sabonis and not far behind Anthony Davis. Davis is much more expensive, and he’s projected ahead of Sabonis by enough to give him the #1 spot on my board. I think all three are viable if you can afford to pay up for two guys here, but Tatum on points per dollar is my safest.
- Christian Wood – It’s honestly a brutal match, but my love for Wood has more to do with the other options on the floor. This Pistons team may be one of the least talented in the league right now. Most teams don’t have one starter who you can’t name, but many can’t name three of the guys starting for the Pistons right now. Wood has gone for 35 or more in seven of the last eight games. As a starter, he’s playing over 32 minutes and averaging about 1.1 fantasy points per minute. He’s been no fewer than two rebounds away from double-doubles in any of the last seven games and, in fact, has done it four times with a bunch of 20+ point games too.
- Thad Young – I admit I have been late to the party, but as long as the Bulls remain thin in the frontcourt, he should keep playing big minutes. Thad Young has always been a solid producer, so as long as the minutes are there, he’s going to be a good option. He’s gone for 48, 38 and 40 in the last three games, so even with a price around $6K, I can’t argue with it. A lot of that has been due to defensive stats, which always makes me nervous.
Note: We have a few cheap options I am willing to go to if I need to save money as well. Derrick Favors and Eric Paschall are two others in whom I have interest. Paschall would require some injury news to Draymond Green and Marquese Chriss for me to feel better about it. I’d rather play him than Looney or Bender. Favors had a big game the last time they played the Lakers and would be needed to match the size the Lakers play with on the court.
- Hassan Whiteside – The DK price is actually friendlier than the FD price by a couple hundred bucks. Whiteside is playing big minutes right now, and he’s the #2 option behind McCollum with Dame out. He’s always been a guy who grabs tons of boards, and he does block his shots as well. He’s barely averaged 31 minutes on the season, but he’s played that or more in every recent game that did not end in a 20-point blowout, one way or the other. He’s had double-digit rebounds in 45 of the 53 games played this year, is averaging over three blocks per game, and still gets his 15-20 points a night. He’s even had some massive 15-20 rebound games, which is how the average is up around 14 per night. Boston’s weakest spot is the interior too, as his path to a big game is actually better than CJ or Melo’s today.
- Steven Adams – I debated a cheap option like John Henson, but really in cash, I think it’s a tad risky. Steven Adams may lack upside, but he’s been a solid floor guy and draws a weak interior for the Bulls today. Adams is not playing 35+ minutes routinely anymore, so even with the price down, his GPP value is suspect. In cash though, he’s been consistent throughout his career. He’s gone for 36+ fantasy points in each of the last four, and as mentioned, this is a good, soft spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA DFS Cheat Sheet, posted later today!