Identify the players on tonight’s NBA DFS slate who have the safest floors for your DraftKings & FanDuel cash game lineups!
Big eleven game slate of NBA DFS action on the last big night before the all-star break. We do have games tomorrow, but only two of them, which is not a slate we will be playing any cash games on. That means today is our last day to make some money heading into the break.
The biggest piece of news today is that Giannis Antetokounmpo will remain out after the birth of his child. We have seen the secondary pieces all step up for the Bucks and a lot of them project highly again today. We currently do not have a ton of major news, which is odd for such a large slate. Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Ayton, and Mike Conley are probably the three biggest question marks here. All of them have missed games recently and are listed as questionable today. Each would open up some value if they can’t go and also have an effect on the spread and total of their respective games.
We do not have a single spread over 8.5 today and only 2 of the 11 games have totals below 220. It’s a pretty even slate in terms of games that are fantasy relevant. We can make a strong argument to just stay away from Detroit/Orlando with a 206 total as that is likely to be the least exciting game by a wide margin here as all the others are at least 10 points higher and most are pushing 20 points or more. WE do have some value and in fact probably more than enough as it’s tougher to find stars you want to pay up for than it is to find the guys that could help you fit them in today.
Highest Projected Totals
Biggest Pace Bumps
Highest Projections Over Average
Trae Young – Luka Doncic is back today and both guys are popping up on my radar. The reason I choose Young over Doncic is because of the match. The Cavs are one of the worst backcourt defenses in the league and numerous guys have chewed up that defensive matchup already. The Hawks project for 7+ points over average here today as well and that should benefit their highest minutes and usage player, which is Trae Young. He’s averaging just shy of 30 points with over 9 assists on the season and is one of only 3 guys with double-digit 40 point performances before turning 22. The other two are Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Pretty good company to keep.
Eric Bledsoe – We talked on Monday about the boost Bledsoe gets when Giannis is out. People may shy away because of the match, but he’s dropped a couple 50 point games without Giannis in recent contests. DraftKings was smart enough to jack him up to $7700. FanDuel still has him listed at below $7K and even with a tougher match here that is still too cheap for the role he has when Giannis is out. I do not hate Spencer Dinwiddie who is coming off a few 40+ fantasy point games, but he has a tough match too against the Raptors and his price is higher.
Rajon Rondo – I debated Rondo v. Jeff Teague and ultimately trust Rondo more for bigger minutes. Both guys are cheap and probably more GPP plays as lower owned pieces of a big player pool, but because the price is so low, I don’t hate going here for cash if you need to save.
Kris Middleton – Another guy that DK jacked up and FD left at his current price. Without Giannis he’s dropped 57 and 70 fantasy points the last two times out. Even at $9K he’s not overpriced given that level of production. For under $8K on FanDuel though he is extremely underpriced. Even if he regressed a bit on these recent highs, he still has a very good chance to end up near 6X if not better.
Caris LeVert – I know he is coming off a bad game, buy two games back against the same opponent he went nuts for almost 50 fantasy points. He’s still cheap on FD at just $6K and only slightly more expensive on DraftKings. He is coming off that bad game, but still saw 33 minutes. The three games before that he averaged over 30 minutes with 30 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and a steal. That’s good for over 40 fantasy points, which would be enough to return over 6X on both sites.
Damion Lee – The Warriors made a bunch of moves at the deadline and that has opened up minutes for a guy like Lee. Remember Klay and Steph remain out. Lee had a big 30 minute performance in his last game and ended up around 30 fantasy points. I don’t think we have much upside on that, but he draws a weak match against Devin Booker defense in a game with his team getting both a slight pace bump and projection above their seasonal average.
Kelly Oubre – I debated Andrew Wiggins v. Kelly Oubre hard as I am unlikely to pay up for Lebron who is like the one guy above those two. Oubre to me has more upside against Wiggins than vice versa. The Suns are favored and project for more points above average than the Warriors. Oubre is coming off a bad game, but the thought process was sound. With the Frontcourt so banged up and Ayton again questionable, Oubre should do more in terms of helping out on the boards, which makes him a double-double threat that will also score and add some defensive stats.
OG Anunoby – This one really hinges on Serge Ibaka for me as will another play, we discuss in a bit. Marc Gasol is out and that means they need to find a running mate for Pascal Siakam. Chris Boucher was the guy many thought would see a big bump, but instead it was a lot more of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and OG. Do I think he repeats the 10X game he just gave us? No, but he could get a 6-8X game again if Ibaka sits and that’s why I had to write him up here.
Joe Ingles – Another guy that we need to monitor injury news for. The last time Conley was out, Ingles saw his assists, minutes, and production all take a jump up into the low 30 range. His price did too but has dropped as his playing time did. If Conley is out again, we should see the Jazz go back to the same old rotations and pairings that led Ingles to consistently go for 30+ fantasy points. With the price back down to where that’s a 6X+ return, we want to be in on that.
DeAndre Hunter – Hunter is very up and down, but the minutes are safe. HE faces a weak defensive Cavs team in a game with a huge total here. I like the safety of his minutes and the weakness of his match at the price. He doesn’t need to do a ton to pay it off and the youngster has contributed in multiple stat categories, including some real breakout upside games.
Juancho Hernangomez – The cheap guy I have some faith in is Juancho. He was buried on the depth chart in Denver but had some really good games last year when given the chance. He only played over 21 minutes twice in Denver this year and went 6X both times. He’s now played half the game or more in three straight and has returned over 6X twice and 5.6X in his last. He’s unlikely to get you thirty here, but the new team seems to be confident in him playing 24-28 minutes, which is the time he played to produce in the last couple at near min price.
Julius Randle – I know I don’t normally love Julius Randle this much either, but you can’t really argue against the spot here. The Wizards are a fast paced team that plays high scoring games. I would not be shocked if this one ends up with both teams in the 110-120 range, which is well above the 105 seasonal average for the Knicks. The big men are healthier, but Thomas Bryant is out and he’s really the one that scares me the most. Randle is already coming off a 60 point game and while I do not think he matches that huge total; he’s got one of the best matchups to do it in.
Aaron Gordon – Gordon keeps being overlooked for a struggling Orlando team. I know no one is high on them today, but that is why the price seems a bit depressed. He’s more in line with production expectations on DK at $6900, which means you need over 40. FD is a tad cheaper on him where you still need like 38. Gordon has gone for 43 or more FD points in 3 of the last five with big 30s minutes in each of those games.
Ersan Ilyasova – Whenever Giannis s out, he’s one of the first value plays I use. Worst case scenario he gets you 20+ and you end up around value Best case he double-doubles and gives you 35+, which would be a smash if he hits upside in a tougher spot here today.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – The other guy that saw a huge production bump without Ibaka last game. He also saw big save minutes as I would expect that to carry today too. If Ibaka plays, I’m jumping off secondary pieces like this. If the frontcourt ends up thin, RHJ And OG are the two guys I think that helps the most.
Karl-Anthony Towns – So we have quite a few big time center options here. Andre Drummond on Cleveland v. Atlanta is also a good one. Ultimately, I like the fact that Minnesota is at home, has the biggest pace bump, and projects for four points over average. After trading Wiggins and Covington, this team is one that should score and give up a ton of points. Napier, Teague were already sent packing too, which means this is KAT’s team now without a doubt.
Marquese Chriss – I know you hate him, and I do too, but we have to look at the facts. Kevon Looney is listed as questionable and the man picking up big minutes lately is Chriss. He’s under $6K, averaging a little over half a game of court time. He’s gone for 6X his FD price in 3 of the last 5 games here. He averages over 1.1 fantasy points per minute and with the discount if he is anywhere near 30 minutes it returns us a profit.