Identify the players on tonight’s NBA DFS slate who have the safest floors for your DraftKings & FanDuel cash game lineups!
We have a smallish six game slate of NBA DFS action for Wednesday. It’s a day of haves and have-nots when it comes to team totals. The Knicks/Hawks game and the Pelicans/Kings game both have high projections with both teams coming in above average. The rest of the games feature at least one, if not two teams projected below average. All those games feature teams with a total around 110 or lower, while the other two games feature team totals closer to 120. Not having exposure to Knicks, Hawks, Pelicans, and/or Kings today would be foolish.
We do have some injury news that will contribute to today’s slate. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable, although I’m counting on him remaining out today. His presence would obviously be a negative for guys like Mike Scott and Al Horford on the list, so keep an eye on his status.
The Miami Heat are likely to be short-handed, but how short-handed could change my love for quite a few guys. Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro are all listed as questionable. The beneficiaries of those three missing will be Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, and Jae Crowder. All of them are on the list today. It would be a situation where we want a ton of Heat exposure if all three of them sit. If they all play, we might not want any exposure as the minutes will be squeezed. It’s one of the more fluid situations on the day and things could swing either way.
We have a few other smaller situations today like Shai Gilgeous Alexander and Seth Curry. It looks likely that both play, but they do carry questionable designations. Schroeder would get a boost and THJ gets one as well if SGA and/or Curry sit for their respective teams. We may get some unannounced news as well, but for now that’s what I am watching.
Highest Projected Totals
- Pelicans 118.25
- Hawks 117.75
- Kings 116.75
- 76ers 113.75
- Knicks 113.25
Biggest Pace Bumps
- Kings +5.7
- Knicks +4.8
- Hornets +2.3
Highest Projections Over Average
- Knicks +8
- Kings +7.75
- Hawks +6.25
- 76ers +4.25
Trae Young – The decision if you choose to pay up today is Trae Young v. Luka Doncic here. It’s the tail end of a B2B for the Mavericks, so we could see Luka as a surprise guy to sit out today. Even if both play I have them basically even on my projections today with Dallas projected below average and the Hawks above average based on the matchups. Trae Young is significantly cheaper on FanDuel at $1200, so he’s easily the better play over there. On DraftKings the difference in price is only $600, but even on DK I have Young slightly better on points per dollar.
De’Aaron Fox – Next to the Hawks, the next biggest bump in projected scoring belongs to the Kings, who also get the biggest jump in pace. Those two games are also nearly 20 points above the rest of the games on this slate for projected totals, so having exposure to them makes a lot of sense in all formats, especially cash. Fox is a big $2000-$3000 discount to the top two guys in terms of price and while he’s below both in his projection, it’s not by the 10-12 points the pricing would seem to dictate it should be. Fox grades out as the best point per dollar value of the guys on the high end and the matchup only gives me more confidence in his high floor.
Goran Dragic – We touched on this in the open. My love for Dragic today will be directly related to how many of the questionable plays do sit out. Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro are all guys who share those perimeter minutes. Most of the time you get only about 24-28 from Dragic, but if a few of those guys miss we could see 30+ and that would make him a near must play.
Brandon Knight – The cheap option is Brandon Knight. He looks to be healthy and able to play today and he’s been a guy who has consistently been at or above value recently. The price has come up a little, but not enough to push me off of him. His upside could smash 6X and worst case scenario he gets us 27-29 and that would be about what we need to get value out of him today.
Devonte’ Graham – I know he is listed as a PG on DK and I don’t hate him although he’s a tad pricey. On FD though he’s a guy I have targeted a lot here. He is only $6500 there and SG is not the most stacked position on this slate. Graham benefits from the Monk injury and frankly he was already the best option to play in that Charlotte backcourt. Injury news could make this a softer defensive matchup on him too depending which Heat guys are out. Either way he’s coming off a monster game and while I doubt he repeats that, he really doesn;t need to in order to make value.
RJ Barrett – The Knicks are one of the teams that gets a big boost and a high projection over average today. They came out flat and were down big early in the first prompting a wholesale change of the entire five on the floor. Barrett is one of the safest guys no matter what direction the Knicks decide to go. As a young centerpiece of their future he is going to get minutes whether they go more with the youth like we saw yesterday or if they remain status quo with some guys who may not factor into what they are eventually looking to do. His FD price is below $5K and that’s big for cash games. It’s $600 more expensive on DK And obviously not as good a play in that situation.
Duncan Robinson – Duncan Robinson is basically a standstill shooter. When hot he can smash and when not he can disappoint. This play is another one that has a lot to do with the status of the other perimeter guys for Miami. The more of them that sit, the more interest I will have in Robinson. We have seen him touch almost 40 minutes in other games with injuries to perimeter guys this year. The results have been mixed, but the floor is obviously higher the more minutes he plays.
Will Barton – Barton has been playing pretty well lately. The minutes are well into the 30s and he’s scoring and contributing across the board in different ways. He’s a few hundred cheaper on FD at only $5700. He missed the last meeting against the Mavericks, but played over 35 minutes and went for 19/11 and over 6X.
Tim Hardaway Jr. – If Luka or Porzingis sit out the tail end of the B2B today it would be a huge boost for THJ. With Seth Curry sitting out, he doesn’t even really need that boost as he has been playing great. He’s been routinely playing 35-40 minutes a night and after sitting out three games ago he bounced right back with 38 minutes in each of the last two games. Production wise he has gone for 6 and 7X in those contests, a slight uptick over his low 30s production right before it. He’s priced around $6K, so even a little regression to those low 30s numbers would be a 5-6X return. If he continues like he did the last two games, you are looking at 6-7X. I like this mid tier price range for the SF position today and will be looking to stay in it if I can.
Jae Crowder – Crowder is the third piece that could end up being a must play from the Heat. He’s the cheapest of all the Miami players on the list today and would greatly benefit with minutes if Butler is out. Crowder is not an elite type of upside play. I would be hoping for injuries to get him close to 30 minutes, but he’s not a massive point per minute guy. I’d need those 30 to feel comfortable with him getting 25+ fantasy points and a 6X+ return. If Butler plays or if Herro and Nunn go, I’ll likely step away and play the two mentioned above as my pairing on FD.
Bam Adebayo – Bam you can play regardless of Butler. Charlotte has been a spot to pick on with bigs for years. What I love about Bam is his all-around game. He’s not an elite scorer, but gets you 15-20 a night. He flirts with double-doubles regularly and can also add in a bunch of assists as a well above average passer for a big man. He’s PF Eligible on FD and C on DK. I list him here because we have less flexibility on FD and he’s my favorite spend up at the position. I’ve used him some on DK today, but he’s over $9K there and that’s a steep price to have to pay.
Julius Randle – I know the last game was a shitshow with the starters getting benched for much of the first half, but this matchup is too good to ignore against the Hawks. Randle has been the most consistent scorer and rebounding threat for the Knicks all year. Does he have flaws in his game? Sure, but when you look at this roster he’s also arguably the top NBA caliber talent they have. The Hawks defense is suspect, the pace is high, and the Knicks project for the most points above average, so it makes sense to play their top scorer in a game script like that.
Al Horford – This one hinges on Joel Embiid’s availability. When Embiid has been playing, Horford tends to be a bit more pedestrian, but he has proven without Embiid that he has not lost a step in his old age. Without Embiid he averages 32 minutes and 35 fantasy points. With him, he’s averaged 27 fantasy points in 30 minutes. The matchup against Detroit is not a particularly tough one, so this is a good spot for him, assuming Embiid is out. We’ve already seen him playing at or above 6X his price today recently.
Mike Scott – Scott is cheap and has a high floor right now. This is of course because Horford slides more to the C spot and he replaces Horford at the forward position when Embiid is out. Scott has routinely given us that 22-26 fantasy points we would be looking for at his price. As long as the 76ers frontcourt remains thin, he should continue to benefit.
Nikola Jokic – It’s Jokic and Embiid as the top two priced guys with Gobert underneath and Bam on DK in the range. I like Bam a lot, but Jokic has a higher ceiling and better all around game. He scores better than Bam, rebounds as well, and is a better passer. Bam does all those things well, but Jokic does them a bit better. On FD it’s no question as they play different positions, but on DK it is as both are only center eligible. I do not hate either to be honest, but I do think Jokic has a higher floor and ceiling and with the price so close, he makes more sense to me.
Bismack Biyombo – I debated Zeller and Biyombo pretty hard here. For me I prefer the guy coming off the bench to the starter. I think both can come close or even exceed the guys $1000-$2000 above them today like Steven Adams, Mitchell Robinson, and Derrick Favors. Those guys have higher ceilings, but the floors are not safe. Biyombo might only get you 25, but he’s more likely to get you 25 and go 6X than those other guys are of getting you 35 so they can go 6X today.