Get off the beaten path with RadThad’s NBA DFS Breakdown, plays designed to help you take down a GPP!!
What’s up my peeps? We have yet another four-game slate on this glorious Sunday afternoon, but don’t fret. Brighter days and bigger slates are in our future.
This is actually a pretty nice slate, as far as “four gamers” go. Like I said yesterday, this could turn into a “three gamer” with one Thanos “snap”, so stay on your toes. If necessary, I’ll provide updates to the article and notify you via the “Twitter machine”.
Remember, this is a GPP article so don’t get flustered if you don’t see some of the “chalkier” names listed below. The “meat” of the article is at the bottom, so I won’t be offended if you start there.
Updated FanDuel cash game core: De’Aaron Fox (SAC), Josh Hart (NO), Domantas Sabonis (IND) and Zion Williamson (NO). You can pivot off of Sabonis and go with Doug McDermott (IND) at power forward if you want to squeeze in Brandon Ingram (NO) as well. When it’s all said and done, you’ll likely end up going with a cheap second point guard in cash games. Patrick Beverly (LAC) or Edmond Sumner (IND) will suffice.
Updated DraftKings cash game core: Zion Williamson (NO), Brandon Ingram (NO), Edmund Sumner (IND) and Josh Hart (NO). This will leave you enough to roster either Nikola Jokic (UTA) or Domantas Sabonis (IND) as your stud in cash games.
Point Guard
1. Shake Milton (PHI)
2. Mike Conley (UTA)
3. Jamal Murray (DEN)
4. De’Aaron Fox (SAC)
5. Malcolm Brogdon (IND)
Hon. mention: Patrick Beverley (LAC)
Shooting Guard
1. Donovan Mitchell (UTA)
2. Eric Bledsoe (NO) *only if he rejoins the starting five
3. Tyrese Haliburton (SAC)
4. Jordan Clarkson (UTA)
5. J.J. Redick (NO)
Hon. mention: Gary Harris (DEN)
Small Forward
1. Kawhi Leonard (LAC)
2. Brandon Ingram (NO)
3. Tobias Harris (PHI)
4. Danny Green (PHI)
5. Will Barton (DEN)
Hon. mention: Matisse Thybulle (PHI)
Power Forward
1. Domantas Sabonis (IND)
2. Zion Williamson (NO)
3. Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA)
4. Darius Bazley (OKC)
5. Nicolas Batum (LAC)
Hon. mention: Doug McDermott (IND) will be relied on to score without LeVert, Warren and now +Myles Turner (IND)
Center
1. Nikola Jokic (DEN)
2. Steven Adams (NO)
3. Richaun Holmes (SAC)
4. Rudy Gobert (UTA)
5. Ivica Zubac (LAC)
Hon. mention: Chimezie Metu (SAC) is a sneaky good play if +Hassan Whiteside (SAC) sits again tonight
Top Stud (over $8K on FD): Nikola Jokic (followed by Kawhi Leonard)
Top Stud (over $8K on DK): Nikola Jokic (followed by Domantas Sabonis)
Top Value (under $5K on FD): Dwight Howard (followed by Josh Hart)
Top Value (under $5K on DK): Nickeil Alexander-Walker (followed by Dwight Howard)
Notes:
– If you’re taking the “studs and scrubs” approach Nikola Jokic (DEN), Domantas Sabonis (IND), Ben Simmons (PHI) and Kawhi Leonard (LAC) have the highest ceilings on the slate (in that order).
-On FanDuel my most common cash core of players consists of George Hill (OKC), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Zion Williamson (NO) and Dwight Howard (PHI). You can actually throw Josh Hart (NO) in there as well. I expect these guys to be very heavily owned, so consider using other options in tournaments. Additional/alternate core plays on FanDuel include De’Aaron Fox (SAC) and Paul George (LAC).
-On DraftKings, I’m getting a lot of Hill, Gilgeous-Alexander, Howard and Nickeil Alexander- Walker (NO). I’m also seeing a lot of Mike Muscala (OKC), but, to be honest, I’m not going that route.
– If you’re looking to construct a low owned lineup, here are a few recommendations that will buck the current roster construction trends for this slate:
–“ How many Philadelphia 76ers is too many?”. We were faced with the same question yesterday, so this analysis will sound familiar. Joel Embiid (PHI) will not play against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday due to right knee pain. Yesterday, the fantasy production and 29.2% usage rate he left up for grabs was absorbed by Ben Simmons (PHI), Tobias Harris (PHI), Dwight Howard (PHI) and Shake Milton (PHI). Yesterday, these guys had usage rates of 19.8%, 29.1%, 17.6% and 32.1%, respectively). Consider using a core of 76ers in tournaments. You’re not sold on the 76ers core, you should at least consider going back to the well with Milton (greater than 30% usage with 51.0 and 40.25 DraftKings points in the two games he’s played with Seth Curry (PHI) sidelined).
-Pick on the Sacramento Kings. The Kings give up more fantasy points than any other team in the NBA (top 10 in the league in pace with the league’s worst overall defensive rating), so you’ll want to take notice whenever you see them on the schedule. Today’s lucky opponent is the New Orleans Pelicans. Some of these guys will show up in the cash game lineups but running out a full core of Pelicans in tournaments is a good idea. Brandon Ingram (NO), Zion Williamson (NO) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NO) will be popular choices, however, if Eric Bledsoe (NO) rejoins the starting five he’ll be an excellent choice as well. Don’t forget about Steven Adams (NO) in your center spot.
–Spend up at the center position. After dropping 39.5 DraftKings points in 33.5 minutes against the Memphis grizzlies, Dwight Howard (PHI) is sure to be the highest owned center on the slate. Listen, I like Howard as much as the next guy, but I wouldn’t bank on him having another 18 rebounds today. It’s certainly possible, but I’ll take my chances with Nikola Jokic (DEN) in tournaments who is currently listed at 5% ownership on DraftKings and 7% ownership on FanDuel.
–Stack a game, any game. Personally, I’m going with a Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder stack (game total of 220.5 with Philadelphia favored by -2.5). This will give me an opportunity to use the aforementioned 76ers core and “run it back” with guys like Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort (OKC), Darius Bazley (OKC) and/or Isaiah Roby (OKC). Using a New Orleans Pelicans core and “running it back” with Fox, Haliburton, Hield and/or Richaun Holmes (SAC) would be a great way to take advantage of a close game (New Orleans is favored by -2.5) with a whopping 226.5 game total.
-Low owned “scrubs” I like in tournaments include Matisse Thybulle (PHI) and Chimezi Metu (SAC) if Whiteside sits.
