Nice little six game slate on tap here for Wednesday night in NBA DFS. We have five games of 220-230 totals and one outlier on the lowside with the Detroit/Miami matchup below 210…
Nice little six game slate on tap here for Wednesday night in NBA DFS. We have five games of 220-230 totals and one outlier on the lowside with the Detroit/Miami matchup below 210. Needless to say, you want to limit your exposure to that one. As for big news, Kevin Durant is out tonight for that matchup between the Rockets and Warriors. Losing a guy who plays his level of minutes with his usage rate is going to mean bumps up for everyone else. We will discuss them below. We also have a few other key guys listed as questionable: Josh Richardson of the Miami Heat and Aaron Gordon of the Orlando Magic. Both are 30+ minute, highly productive players for their respective teams. You would see minutes and usage bumps for guys on both squads if either of them miss. As far as teams you want to target players on, Memphis has the best spot against Atlanta. You have the fastest paced team taking on the slowest paced one here, so the pace bump literally can’t get any better. Memphis has a huge 9 point over average projection tonight, so ceiling games and upside all around are expected. Orlando also has a good spot against the Wizards at Washington. Washington plays fast paced, high scoring games, and being at home should help keep this one close. Add in the fact they may be without Gordon and the spot looks really really good for the entire team here.
Top Projected Totals
- OKC – 118.75
- HOU – 116.75
- UTA – 114.75
- WAS – 114.5
- GS – 113.75
Biggest Pace Bumps
- MEM – +7.8
- ORL – +3.9
- HOU – +3.2
- BRK – +2.9
Highest Projection Over Average
- MEM – +9
- ORL – +6
- UTA – +4.75
- HOU – +3.75
- OKC – +3.5
Top Cash Plays
Russell Westbrook – He plays with the highest projected team total today. OKC is at home and projected for 3.5 points over there average. I currently have Westbrook slightly higher than Harden, making him the top projected overall scorer on the slate. I do like a few other PG options as well, so I don’t think you have to go here, but if you can afford Westbrook in cash I have no problem with using him. The guys is a walking potential triple double with 30+ point scoring capabilities. Plus he draws a good matchup here.
Steph Curry – Losing Durant scoring is going to mean everyone else has to step it up. This is not an ideal spot as the Warriors are paced down and projected below average, but the bump in usage without KD should make up for that. Steph is a few thousand cheaper than other high end options today and projects for a bump in production, which means upside potential. He’s dropped high 40s already this season against the Rockets, so a repeat of that would at least put him in line for value with potential upside.
Mike Conley – Nice price for Conley who draws the best matchup on the board. Conley is such a big part of this offense and the numbers have been even better since the trade deadline. Still the price remains reasonable and around where it already was before Gasol was shipped off. When you factor in the matchup against the high paced Hawks with a big projection bump and the fact they are on the road so the game should stay close, you see the arrows all pointing in the direction of Conley as a top option today and rightly so.
Tomas Satoransky – Not the ideal matchup, but the guy just plays so many minutes for an uptempo team with the ball in his hands. He’s not great at anything, but will grab some boards, get some assists, and score some points. He’s been reaching value and even exceeding it in his recent games since sitting out and the Wizards are projected for their average number of points tonight, even with a price decrease. He should be able to keep rolling.
James Harden and Bradley Beal are never bad options to look at, but I’m trying to spend elsewhere today as SG does offer some very solid value options that are better than what we can get paying up here and going cheap in other places. If you can afford these guys I’m good with that, but in my builds I’ve saved here and you will see why in a second.
Klay Thompson – Klay has been ballin’ out lately with 40+ in 3 of the last 4 games. One thing Klay can do is score and without Durant he is going to get every opportunity to do so. I know the price has risen on him, but he’s still $2K cheaper than Beal and $3K+ cheaper than Harden. Both guys have higher floors and ceilings, but not by $2-$3K worth. I have come down to Klay in order to spend up at other spots, but I do realize you are probably giving up raw points by doing so, although I’m fine with that due to the savings.
Terrence Ross – Ross has already been making value coming off the bench and scoring some points. He could see an increase in minutes and also higher usage if Aaron Gordon doesn’t play. Ross with Gordon active is still a decent option, but the bump he gets if Gordon sits added to the bump in pace make him a great play if that happens.
Avery Bradley – He is seeing the minutes and actually producing much better since the trade. Add in the fact they have the best matchup on the day with Hawks and it’s easy to see why he is projecting for a really good return on his pretty cheap price today.
Andre Iguodala – FD lists him as a SG, so we have to discuss him here. Iggy is cheap and I don’t think he has massive upside as he’s still a third or fourth option at best when on the floor. He’s been a little volatile due to fluctuating minutes. Today though the minutes should be near his ceiling without Durant and that means he has a much higher floor and more potential upside than he normally does.
Paul George – I know PG13 has not been his usually studly self, but I’m willing to forgive. Part of the reason is lack of other FD options. On DK you have plenty of SG/SF and SF/PF types you can play around with, but on FD you have Paul George and no one else projected within 20 point of him. This is why I’m looking to save at PG and SG even though in raw points I prefer Westbrook and Harden to him. It’s a positional scarcity thing. If you fade PG13 and he goes off, you likely are 20+ points behind with whoever you took instead. Guys like Conley and Steph can get closer than that to Westbrook and I think you have SG options that can get you closer to Harden as well. At SF, I don’t think we have any other guys with 50 point upside or even 40 point floors. The drop off is just too great not to use PG13 in one of those SF spots.
Jonathan Isaac – Like Terrence Ross, he’s already been playing well enough to be around value. He would benefit greatly from Gordon missing this game as he would be asked to play a little more PF and rebound a bit heavier. Again, you also have the big pace bump and projection over average for this matchup with the Wizards, so many arrows pointing up for Isaac today. I like him even if Gordon plays, love him if Gordon sits.
Trevor Ariza – I don’t want to knock Ariza really. I mean the guy plays tons of minutes, so there is safety here. My problem is he’s not always making value and the matchup is not ideal. Still it underlines the point with PG13 on FD. The options below him are very suspect. I considered guys like Justise Winslow (Especially if Jason Richardson is out), Kelly Oubre, Joe Ingles, and the next closest guy was probably Ariza’s teammate Jabari Parker. I give Ariza the slight edge because Parker plays less minutes routinely, but really that is about as low as I’m willing to go here without some news changing my opinion.
Blake Griffin – I’m including him on the list because I do think he is a decent play, but not ideal. I’m trying not to be heavy or even exposed at all to that low total Det/Mia matchup if possible. Still Blake has had better games v. Miami than Drummond has so far this year and ultimately that is what led me to include him.
John Collins – Not an ideal matchup in terms of pace or projection, but a pretty decent one in terms of how to attack the Grizzlies. Conley/Bradley is one of the better guard defensive combos in basketball, which means it’s better to attack them with bigs. Collins has been ballin’ out lately too. Since coming off injury, he’s had three straight double-doubles. 18/10, 33/19, 23/10 are the returns. At his price that is not bad upside to consider.
Bobby Portis – Not the ideal spot for Portis either, but he’s been so productive lately that I’m still interested. He’s a tad over $6K on DK and has a string of 40 point games in a row. It’s more a price play and something I’m considering doing because of the high team totals on both sides.
Draymond Green – I don’t play Draymond for upside, but I will look his way today for a high floor. You figure he’s going to get his minutes and help out more rebounding to make up for KD not being around. Draymond has taken a hit to his production with this tam full of stars, but when you take one away, the usage rate gets gobbled up by the other guys who all sacrifice a little of their own game for the good of the team. What I really like here is the price. Draymond is cheap and with increased usage and maybe even minutes, we have multiple reasons to expect upside.
DeMarcus Cousins – So losing KD’s scoring mean everyone else has to step there’s up and Boogie has never had a problem doing that. With Iggy likely to take some of those KD minutes, he is not going to be subbed in for Cousins late in games today like we usually see. Both guys should be on the floor together in crunch time. That means this sets up as a ceiling type minutes game for Boogie. He’s gone over 41 which is 5.5-6X his price in 5 of the last 7 games and both times he saw 31 minutes he scored 41 and 51 fantasy points.
DeAndre Ayton – Ayton has been playing well recently and finishing with around a double double each game. This matchup is one people are scared of, but it actually hasn’t been a tough matchup this year despite everyone wanting to avoid Rudy Gobert. On FD he’s over $8K and I’m unlikely to go that route, but on DK you have him way discounted in the low $6K range and that’s something I definitely would take advantage of.