Monster 13 game NBA DFS Slate for Friday night. The NBA tries not to go head-to-head with the NCAA tourney, so we only have two games Saturday and none on Monday, which means…
Monster 13 game NBA DFS Slate for Friday night. The NBA tries not to go head-to-head with the NCAA tourney, so we only have two games Saturday and none on Monday, which means today and Sunday are massive slates to make up for it. We do have some playoff implications tonight, mostly in the East as 4 teams are vying for basically the last three playoff spots. In both conferences we have some teams looking to move up or hold on to their current spot in the playoff race, with the Boston/Indiana game being the main one as the winner moves a game up on the #4 spot, while the loser drops back a game to fifth with 3 games left to go. We have a handful of other teams that can move up with a win. The Miami Heat are the main one as they are currently 9th in the east, a game out of the playoffs. They cannot afford any loses. Not many of these games project to be that close. Of the 13 on the slate, only 5 have spreads of 5 or less. Teams like San Antonio and Orlando are motivated to win today, although both need to win by a decent number of points to get over the spread. Teasing teams like that with something to play for against teams that don’t have any reason to play hard makes some sense and it also makes sense in DFS to lean on those situations too. Teams like the Rockets and Warriors are massive 17-point favorites, so I’m worried about how much run the stars et in those games. Golden State is also sitting guys as Boogie is definitely out and he may not end up being alone. It makes it tough to use guys in those games. I don’t want to eliminate any games really, because this late in the season minutes are so important. Evan Turner is a great example. He’s basically sucked all year but has two triple doubles in the last week. Bench guys are seeing bigger roles and minutes as starters are resting and the more the playoff picture becomes settled over the next few days the more likely this continues to happen. We are less than a week until the end of the NBA regular season, so stick to things you can be relatively certain of in cash to avoid that one player blowing up your lineups.
Top Projected Totals
- Warriors 121
- Clippers 120.5
- Rockets 118.75
- Jazz 117.25
- Magic 117
- Spurs 116.75
Biggest Pace Bumps
- Magic +6.1
- Pistons +5.4
- Warriors +4.2
- Spurs +3.4
- Jazz +3
Highest Projection Over Average
- Magic +10.5
- Suns +8
- Jazz +6
- Clippers +5.5
- Rockets +5.25
- Spurs +5
Top Cash Plays
With so many games the list was quite long again today. I tried to narrow it down to only my favorite plays and guys I couldn’t avoid today when building my lineups. I cut the descriptions a bit short due to the volume of names and the fact the 13-game research has me behind the clock a little to get this out by the deadline.
Russell Westbrook – Matchups Smatchups. I know this is not an ideal
one on paper, but he’ll murder Reggie Jackson defense. The OKC Thunder are playing for their spot as they can still move up or down depending how these last few games play out.
Jamal Murray – Murray has really stepped into the secondary scorer role for this team and with the Rockets one back, Blazers two back and still with 2 of the Warriors for the top spot, the Nuggets have something to play for.
DJ Augustin – Best matchup of the day in one of the biggest paced up games with the Magic projected for 10+ points over average. It should be ceiling games for everyone in a must win situation to stay in the playoffs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – This is an injury spot to watch. SGA has played really well with increased run recently as Patrick Beverley has been out. The Lakers are a ceiling game type matchup, so if P-Bev misses and we are getting 30+ SGA minutes at the point I like this play a lot as a salary saver.
Cory Joseph – Again this hinges on the injury status of Darren Collison, but Cory J is seeing 30+ minutes with him out. I know he played like cap the first game, but he bounced back last time out. At under $4K on FD he is dirt cheap. $4200 on DK is not as good a spot with the higher price and higher multiple needed, but it’s still a pretty reasonable ask.
Luka Doncic – The guy is a monster when he plays. He’s going to score, he’ll get his assists, and he rebounds too. He’s the #1 option and a 50-60 fantasy point guy in his role.
Donovan Mitchell – He’s looking more like the Rookie of the Year from last season late in this season. Throw in the perfect matchup against a paced-up Kings team and you could see him put up another solid 40+ fantasy points with upside into the 50s today. The Jazz are in a battle for playoff seeding as well, so they need to win.
Delon Wright – No Conley has made Wright a big fantasy producer whenever that is the case. The problem today is the price is up on both sites. I still think Wright is OK for cash, but the upside is sapped for GPPs at this valuation.
Wayne Ellington – Ellington has benefitted from the Pistons chasing a playoff spot and the lack of good healthy wings on the Pistons. He’s routinely playing over 30 minutes and has gone for 30+ in 3 of the last 4 games.
Jamal Crawford – J Crossover can score and without Booker, they need guys to put the ball in the basket. I trust him more than guys like Jimmer Fredette and Troy Daniels. The truth is everyone on the Suns is in play here. They are projected over average without main pieces like Booker and Ayton. Everyone is cheap and they all project for increased minutes and usage. Crawford is the safest of all these guys at $4K and under likely to get half a game or more, so I’m most comfortable punting with him as you know what you are going to get. He’s been producing the last few games with his new role as well.
Tyler Dorsey – On DK at $4700 I would likely pass on him, but under $4K on FD makes him a viable punt option. His upside is nice, and his floor is the thing that concerns me. Still at under $4K he has and could again go for 30, which would be great value for the price. HE’s only a FD play anyway, and I like him better over there as you can always drop the low score if he does suck tonight.
Danilo Gallinari – I’m not a huge fan of paying up here today, but Gallo is a guy I like a good bit. The Clippers are a little short-handed right now, have one of the best matchups on the board, and need to win to keep their playoff seeding intact.
Josh Jackson – Jackson is pedestrian, except for when he has to be the man. Without Warren and Booker and Ayton, he’s going to need to be the man today. Jackson is not great at anything, but he does everything well. He can rebound, he can pass, he scores a bit and at the end of a game like this I wouldn’t be surprised to look up and see 35-40 fantasy points since he’s projecting to play over 30 minutes with a big usage bump. Jackson is a top play today given the lovely matchup with the Pelicans too.
Taurean Prince – We have a lot of guys priced up on DK that are cheap on FD today. Prince is definitely one of them and I used him over there. He’s only $4600 on FD and $5K on DK. Any time a guy is cheaper on FD, he’s a much better play there and Prince did get minutes in his return last time out.
NOTE: Add Justin Jackson and Evan Turner to the list as both are reasonably priced options with upside today.
Julius Randle – The matchup with the Suns is one I expect him to crush as they are very weak inside currently. He’s routinely putting up 50+, including in 2 of the last 3 games. Randle has a soft matchup and is one of the constants on a team with a bunch of 25-minute players. He’s routinely in the mid-30s for minutes, which is why I trust him.
LaMarcus Aldridge – Amazing matchup for him against a paced-up Wizards team with a weak frontcourt. Remember the Spurs and OKC Are battling for who gets the Warriors, a matchup no one wants, and who gets the Nuggets, a matchup both think they have a better chance of winning. LMA and DeRozan carry this team and given the pace bump and projection over average I expect big things from them today.
Aaron Gordon – The game flow fits his up and down style very well and without Collins the Hawks are weaker inside. Gordon is not cheap, but given the Magic have the biggest pace bump and project for the most points over average against one of the friendliest fantasy opponents of the year you can justify paying a couple extra bucks for him today.
Richaun Holmes – His price is up which is not ideal, but as long as Ayton is out the production and minutes should remain high. I really do think everyone benefits with more usage and production to make up for Booker’s injury and Holmes did go 6X after Booker went down last game. He’ll need a best effort off the price jump, but it’s also one of the best spots and Phoenix does somehow project over average with three of the main scorers in Ayton, Booker, and Warren. Someone has to put up numbers for them to get 110+ points tonight as projected.
Ivan Rabb – I will likely have a lot of Rabb again tonight. It’s a simple equation here for me. Without Valanciunas his minutes need to be high, especially with Noah banged up. Rabb wasn’t great last out and still went 6X in a blowout due to his new role.
Nikola Vucevic – Can’t argue with the paper soft matchup, the top pace bump, and the main scoring threat on the team projected for the most points above average today. Orlando is motivated to win as well, so he should get every chance to dominate for them to get that done.
Andre Drummond – Not a soft matchup at all, but he’s been money while Blake has been out, and the Pistons need to pull out a victory somehow to keep in the playoff race. Drummond has 20/20 upside and his rebounding rate is awesome without Blake. He’s also being given more offensive responsibilities, so as long as Blake misses, he’s in play even in these tougher spots.
Ante Zizic – If you need to go cheap, I guess Zizic is my guy. Not the ideal spot at all, but he is dirt cheap and he draws the Warriors without Boogie Cousins. Guys like Enes Kanter and Nikola Jokic were also on my initial list, but I prefer to pay for Vuc and Drummond if going up.