Small, four-game slate for NBA DFS here on a Tuesday. Not really the best place to…
Small, four-game slate for NBA DFS here on a Tuesday. Not really the best place to be looking to go heavy, especially near the end of the season. The Key game here today is Golden State and Denver. They are jockeying for the #1 overall spot in the West and home court throughout. In terms of production, it might not be the greatest game for fantasy, but it should remain close and the stars should get max run. A lot of the value today can be found on the Lakers and Hawks with players from both expected to be out. Lebron is definitely out and Kuzma is questionable, so an already thin rotation is going to be desperate for guys to play minutes and produce. The Hawks are also hurting at the forward spots and may be with Taurean Prince and John Collins today. Those are two big minute guys that produce, so production and minutes are available there as well. Both teams are likely to get stomped today, which makes me more nervous about the stars playing against them. I was a little surprised at the line for the Houston Sacramento game, but Marvin Bagley is out, and the Kings are eliminated from playoff contention already. Should also see that open up a little bit of value.
Top Cash Plays
Russell Westbrook – Westbrook does project out as one of the highest scoring players on the slate and we do have enough value to use him today. Even on a points per dollar scale, I have him ahead of Trae Young today and those are the two guys I have the most interest in paying up for. On DK, it was harder for me to get Westbrook in and on FD I had an easier time on my build with the value available. I’m not starting my lineups with Westbrook, but I’ll gladly use him if the money is available.
Trae Young – Young has been on a mission the second half of the year and even more so the last month. He has 4 straight games with 48-58 DK points playing 31+ minutes in each and averaging over 20/10. With the injuries piling up for the Hawks, they have had to lean on him more and he has responded positively to that.
Rajon Rondo – Coming off a pair of 50+ DK point outings and without Lebron James. The Lakers may also be without Kuzma today. No Lebron and with Ball and Ingram out leaves Rondo to do most of the creating. He’s reasonably priced and the new role gives him way more upside than we have seen already. There is a lot to like about him Rondo going forward under these circumstances.
If you need to go cheap, I like the San Antonio guys. I’d rather play a Derrick White (DK) or Bryn Forbes than an Alex Caruso if you are looking to punt.
James Harden – You can build around Harden today and in a paced-up spot against a team that typically plays high scoring games I don’t think that is crazy. The matchup is ideal, and Harden has massive 80+ point upside. Even his “BAD” games are 50+, so you know he’s not going to kill your chances to cash either way.
Klay Thompson – He hasn’t had a lot of big games lately, but his last monster one was against the Nuggets, so he has produced in this spot before. Klay is also reasonably priced and given the matchup and the stakes with both teams fighting for the #1 overall spot, I have faith that the minutes and shots will be near ceiling for Klay. Decent price and likely to play near his ceiling are two reasons I’m interested in cash.
Reggie Bullock – Especially on DK at only $3600, but in play on both sites due to the lack of decent wing options left. With Lebron out, guys like Bullock and Lance Stephenson have seen bumps and if Kuzma sits to, Bullock is almost a lock for 30-35 minutes. With his price so low, that would mean a lot of upside for him.
Kevin Durant – I prefer Durant to Paul George today. I’m not 100% sure the Thunder game stays close and if they do sit anyone, I think PG13 is the guy most likely to come out first as he has been nursing and playing through some minor injuries. It’s not like Durant isn’t every bit as good, it’s just that when both teams are at full strength the role PG13 plays is more conducive to bigger fantasy points. Given the blow out risk for George and the likely highest minute output in a playoff type atmosphere for Durant, I just trust his production more in cash games and I’ll take him for the discount.
Harrison Barnes – Marvin Bagley is questionable and when he missed the last game Barnes saw 35 minutes of action. He’s not a huge ceiling guy, so I can see why people say fade him in GPPs, but he does have a high safe floor as he is a decent producer and the minutes have been high already. If Bagley’s minutes and usage need to be covered, While I like Nemanja Bjelica for some of it, Barnes has been the guy consistently seeing most of the benefits from it.
DeAndre Bembry – It does make me a little nervous that he never plays over half the game, but with a couple guys banged up, maybe that changes today. Either way he is cheap and his production even in 20 minutes of action has been more than enough to pay off his salary.
LaMarcus Aldridge – Of all the Spurs to play, Aldridge is easily my favorite. Guys like Rudy Gay and Derrick White had good mid-season runs, but the prices have come up as the production has come down. The Spurs late in the season here seem to be leaning more heavily on the stars, namely guys like Demar DeRozan and LMA. LMA is routinely playing 35+ minutes in recent games and has had a couple 20/15+ outings including that monster 48/13 against the Celtics a few back. We have some value to open up salary, so unless you are going Westbrook/Harden combo he fits in pretty easily.
Paul Millsap – My biggest beef with Millsap is always the minutes. When he gets them, he smashes value as he still produces well on a per minute basis. The Nuggets have tried to go easy on him, so he was fresh and ready when they really need him in the playoffs. With this game being for the #1 spot, I would expect them to treat it like a playoff game and for Millsap to get near max minutes. Whenever he sees the minutes, he’s been producing with them and today feels like another one of those days in this spot against the Warriors.
Kyle Kuzma and Marvin Bagley both grade out well here today, but both have questionable tags. If either of them plays I would have interest.
Nikola Jokic – I’m not jumping at the idea of throwing and jamming him into my lineups, but I’m not going to pretend he’s a bad play. Jokic has carried this offense and even though they are healthier today, he’ll need to have a big game for them to stay in this one. He does contribute across the board and they are letting him play big minutes. Again, I’m not forcing him in, but if the game is close, he could get max minutes and near ceiling production and that has meant 60+ points on his best days.
Clint Capela – Capela has played some solid games recently and what I really love is the matchup. The Kings play fast and miss a lot of shots, which means a lot of rebounds. They also give up a lot of points and have struggled with interior players. Capela has been reaching value and looking good lately and now you factor in the matchup too and this becomes a solid spot to look at him.
Alex Len – John Collins looks likely to be out and Alex Len is very cheap. Dewayne Dedmon is already out, so the minutes have been there for Len. Without Collins the rebounds and usage may go up, so he’s a safe floor guy with upside, even in a tough matchup.