Get your engines started for the Buschy McBusch 400 DFS slate! Sean Engel provides top NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel lineups!
Get your engines started for the Buschy McBusch Race 400 DFS slate! Sean Engel provides top NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel lineups!
THIS WEEK’S RACE DETAILS
Time & Date of Race: Sunday, May 2nd, 2021 at 3:00 PM EST
Track: Kansas Speedway
Track Details: 1.5 Mile Asphalt Tri-Oval
Banking of Turns: 17-20° (Progressive)
Banking of Front Stretch: 9-11° (Progressive
Banking of Back straightaway: 5°
Last Race Details at Kansas
Date: October 4th, 2020
Race Winner: Joey Logano
Lap Leaders (11 Total Drivers): Kevin Harvick (85), Denny Hamlin (58), Chase Elliott (48), Joey Logano (47), Matt DiBenedetto (12), Brad Keselowski (6), Kyle Busch (4), William Byron (3), Kurt Busch (2), Corey LaJoie (1), Ryan Newman (1).
Stage 1 Winner: Chase Elliott
Stage 2 Winner: Denny Hamlin
Drivers will accumulate points as follows below:
Place Differential (How many positions a driver finishes above or below their starting position): +/- 1 Pt each
Fastest Laps (Awarded for the driver that sets the fastest lap time on each lap): + 0.45 Pts.
Laps Led (Awarded for each lap a driver leads the race): + 0.25 Pts.
Finishing Position (Awarded for where a driver finishes at the end of the race):
1st: +45 Pts.
2nd: +42 Pts.
3rd: + 41 Pts.
4th: + 40 Pts.
5th: + 39 Pts.
And the amount of points earned continues decreasing until the last finishing position in the field.
DK Scoring Notes to Keep in Mind:
- A driver’s starting position is based on his qualifying position. If a driver’s qualifying position is disallowed, his starting position will be his new spot at the back of the race. If a driver’s starting position changes between qualifying and the start of the race for any other reason (Example: going to a backup car) the original qualifying position will be used to calculate place differential.
- Finishing Position is defined as the driver’s standing order at the end of the race. Disqualifications related to same-day post-race inspection will not change a driver’s Finishing Position, Laps Led, or Fastest Laps stats.
Laps Completed (Awarded for all laps any driver completes): +0.1 Pts
Laps Led: +0.1 Pts.
Place Differential: +/- 0.5 Pts.
1st: +43 Pts.
2nd: +40 Pts.
3rd: +38 Pts.
4th: +37 Pts.
5th: +36 Pts.
And the amount of points earned continues decreasing until the last finishing position in the field.
If you’re new to Elite Sports’ DFS Picks articles, here is the rundown. Every week for each Cup race, this article will be published including driver outlooks based on a combination of track results, loop data, and performance from this season. If there are any pre-race events including qualifying and practices, this article will be updated based on their results upon completion. If a racer performs well or poorly throughout pre-race events, this will affect their outlook and be noted as such. Otherwise, all picks listed are final.
This article will feature four groups of driver recommendations:
- Top-priced picks
- Mid-Tier picks
- Value Sleepers
- Drivers to avoid
Between each of these groups there will be 12 total drivers with their outlooks evaluated for this week’s race. These outlooks are here to help you make tough lineup calls that detail which drivers to start or park every week.
In case you want additional information to follow-up on this article, I encourage you to check out the Cheat Sheet for this race and the Projections Tab. Without further delay, I present to you the picks for this week’s race, the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway.
As DFS players create lineups for Kansas this weekend, it’s important to keep the right strategy in mind for picking the best drivers to finish well. Since Kansas is a 1.5-Mile Intermediate track, fantasy players must aim to choose drivers capable of not just scoring the best finish possible, but also the most Place Differential and laps led.
Unlike last week’s race at Talladega, only a few racers usually dominate and lead the majority of laps at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks. Normally, the most likely drivers to dominate are those starting towards the front or have displayed greater speeds than the field in pre-race events or other races at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks.
There are plenty of options this week for choosing drivers that will pick up a lot of PD this weekend at Kansas. Due to the current qualifying procedure, which leans heavily on the results of last week’s race at Talladega, many top-priced picks are in the back half of the starting grid this week at Kansas. For the same reason, some lower-priced drivers that will perform well this week also are risky for starting closer to the front.
Carefully refer to the driver picks below to know who you should build lineups around this week and, as always, the more lineups you make for Kansas while diversifying it with different driver combinations, the greater your chances are to win contests.
LOOP DATA AND DRIVER STATS
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday at Kansas in Driver Rating since 2019:
1: Kevin Harvick – 116.1
2: Denny Hamlin – 110.6
3: Chase Elliott – 108.4
4: Brad Keselowski – 106.5
5: Martin Truex Jr. – 103.1
6: Kyle Busch – 101.0
7: Alex Bowman – 101.0
8: Kyle Larson – 99.1
9: Erik Jones – 98.7
10: Ryan Blaney – 93.1
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday at Kansas in Average Running Position since 2019:
1: Chase Elliott – 7.3
2: Kevin Harvick – 7.6
3: Brad Keselowski – 7.7
4: Kyle Busch – 9.0
5: Denny Hamlin – 9.3
6: Ryan Blaney – 9.5
7: Martin Truex Jr. – 9.6
8: Kyle Larson – 10.1
9: Alex Bowman – 10.6
10: Erik Jones – 10.8
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday in Average Finish at Kansas since 2018:
1: Chase Elliott – 6.2
2: Kevin Harvick – 6.8
3: Kyle Larson – 7.2
4: Martin Truex Jr. – 7.3
5: Erik Jones – 7.7
6: Brad Keselowski – 7.7
7: Alex Bowman – 8.5
8: Denny Hamlin – 8.7
9: Kyle Busch – 10.2
10: Cole Custer – 10.5
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday in Laps Led at Kansas since 2018:
1: Kevin Harvick – 353
2: Denny Hamlin – 268
3: Joey Logano – 184
4: Kyle Larson – 161
5: Chase Elliott – 141
6: Martin Truex Jr. – 90
7: Ryan Blaney – 80
8: Alex Bowman – 76
9: Brad Keselowski – 76
10: Kyle Busch – 57
Here are the winners of the last 10 Kansas races:
- October 2020 – Joey Logano
- July 2020 – Denny Hamlin
- October 2019 – Denny Hamlin
- May 2019 – Brad Keselowski
- October 2018 – Chase Elliott
- May 2018 – Kevin Harvick
- October 2017 – Martin Truex Jr.
- May 2017 – Martin Truex Jr.
- October 2016 – Kevin Harvick
- May 2016 – Kyle Busch
GEICO 500 DFS NASCAR PICKS FOR DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL
Kyle Larson #5 (DraftKings: $11,300 | FanDuel: $13,500) – Starting: 32nd – When it comes to 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks this season, Kyle Larson has been a favorite to win every time. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet led the most laps of all racers in 2021 so far (376) and placed in the Top 5 in all three Cup events at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks. In his last six races at Kansas, Larson has four top-10 finishes with positive PD and led 60 laps in his last appearance at the site. Based on his performance at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks this season as well as his amazing PD upside from his starting position, Larson is one of the ideal DFS plays this week.
Denny Hamlin #11 (DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $14,000) – Starting: 20th – One of the top performers in recent years at Kansas is Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota won two of the last three races at the site and led the most laps in that span (268). Since 2019 at KS, Hamlin ranks fifth of active drivers in Average Running Position (9.3), third in Fastest Laps (75), and second in Driver Rating (110.6). Hamlin has eight top-5 finishes so far this season including the last two races at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks. Look for Hamlin to score a solid amount of PD as one of the favorites to win this week at Kansas.
Alex Bowman #48 (DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $9,200) – Starting: 25th – Alex Bowman is a driver that DFS players must greatly consider for this week’s race at Kansas. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet placed 11th or better in each of the last five races at the track including two top-5 finishes. This season at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks, Bowman has two top-10 finishes while scoring positive PD. Bowman’s starting position offers great PD upside as a driver with strong history at Kansas, making him one of the better top-priced plays for Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. #19 (DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000) – Starting: 15th – 1.5-Mile Intermediate are a track type where Martin Truex Jr. excels and this week will be no exception. Since 2017 at Kansas, Truex finished outside of the top-10 once and earned two wins. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is one of a few racers to place in the Top 10 in all races at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks this season and his starting position provides decent PD upside. As a racer that is highly competitive at Kansas and 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks this season, Truex must be one of the core picks to build lineups around this Sunday.
William Byron #24 (DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,500) – Starting: 2nd – Since his win earlier this season at Homestead, William Byron remains consistent and competitive with eight consecutive top-10 finishes. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet racked up top-10 finishes with positive PD in each of his last three starts at Kansas while leading laps in his last four Cup events there. Byron’s starting position leaves almost no PD upside, but also provides a high chance of leading laps early on Sunday. Although he is a risky pick this week, Byron’s season-wide performance and favorable recent results at Kansas make him an underrated favorite to win.
Kyle Busch #18 (DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,500) – Starting: 9th – Despite not winning any races since 2016 at Kansas, Kyle Busch has a favorable history at the site. Busch has three top-5 finishes in his last five KS starts and led laps in three of the last four there. This season at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks, the driver of the No. 18 Toyota has two top-5 finishes with his other finish at Homestead being tenth. Since 2019 at Kansas, Busch ranks second in Fastest Laps (101), and fourth in Average Running Position (9.0). “Rowdy” Busch does not provide a lot of PD upside this week from his starting position, but his experience and results this season point to a top-10 finish with a chance of placing in the Top 5.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #47 (DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $6,800) – Starting: 23rd – One of the better mid-tier options for Kansas is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. In 16 career starts at Kansas, the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet has 11 top-20 finishes including five of his last six races at the track. This season, Stenhouse gained positive PD and placed 13th or better at all 1.5-Mile Intermediate track races. Stenhouse provides a fair amount of PD upside this week and based on his equipment, history, and results this season, he is a driver that should be considered for lineups.
Erik Jones #43 (DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $7,000) – Starting: 27th – A driver that is one of the more consistent performers in recent Kansas races is Erik Jones. Jones has five top-10 finishes in his career at KS, which he procured in his last six starts there. Since joining Richard Petty Motorsports in 2021, Jones has mixed results at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks with only one top-10 with positive PD. However, since Kansas is one of his better tracks statistically and because of his high PD upside, Erik Jones is a driver DFS players should start on Sunday.
Austin Cindric #33 (DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $6,200) – Starting: 38th – Whenever Austin Cindric is in the Cup Series field this year, he is always worth starting. The current Xfinity Series champion has three starts this year, scoring positive PD every time. Cindric has two top-25 finishes in 2021 while his best finish in the Xfinity Series at Kansas is second. The driver of the No. 33 Ford has equipment from Team Penske, who perform well at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks with Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. With superb PD upside and good equipment, Cindric is one of the top value plays of the week.
Ross Chastain #42 (DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $5,500) – Starting: 24th – Ross Chastain quietly has been one of the better DFS value plays all year and this week is no exception. In his first season with Chip Ganassi Racing this year, Chastain picked up positive PD six times including two races at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks. In his career at Kansas, 26th is the best finish for the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet while he captured positive PD twice. Chastain’s starting position offers a fair amount of PD upside and based on his performance this season, expect him to place in the Top 20 with a chance of scoring a top-15 finish.
Daniel Suarez #99 (DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $5,800) – Starting: 21st – Another bargain value to consider for Kansas this week is Daniel Suarez. In his Cup career at the site, Suarez has three top-20 finishes while picking up positive PD four times. This season at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks, the driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has two top-20 finishes while leading laps in all three races at the track type. Suarez has an adequate amount of PD upside this week and based on his equipment, he will finish in the Top 20 while competing for a top-15 finish.
Chris Buescher #17 (DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $6,300) – Starting: 16th – One of the riskier value options that is worth starting this week is Chris Buescher. In 11 starts at Kansas, the driver of the No. 17 Ford has five top-20 finishes, which he gained in his last seven Cup events. This season at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks, Buescher has two top-15 finishes while racking up positive PD including a finish of seventh at Atlanta. Buescher does not provide a lot of PD upside based on his starting position, but his equipment is better than most around his price range and competes for top-15 finishes regularly this season. Watch for Buescher to place in the Top 15 with a chance of competing for a top-10 finish.
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Aric Almirola #10 (DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $7,500) – Starting: 18th – Aric Almirola is currently experiencing one of his worst Cup seasons to date in 2021. The driver of the No. 10 Ford has three top-15 finishes this season while capturing positive PD four times. Almirola’s best finish at a 1.5-Mile Intermediate track this season is 20th and he has one top-10 finish in his last three Kansas starts. Despite the small amount of PD upside from his starting position, there are better options to start for the price this week.
Cole Custer #41 (DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $7,200) – Starting: 10th – Cole Custer has competent history at Kansas in two starts with two top-15 finishes, but still is not recommended for this week. The driver of the No. 41 Ford has one overall top-10 finish while his best finish at a 1.5-Mile Intermediate track is 18th this season. Custer has too much PD downside from his starting position to comfortably utilize and with his performance this season being lackluster, he is not worth picking for Sunday’s race.
Michael McDowell #34 (DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,000) – Starting: 3rd – If any driver must be avoided at all costs this week, it’s Michael McDowell. McDowell only has one finish in the Top 15 throughout his entire Cup career at Kansas and has three finishes outside of the Top 20 in his last five starts at the track. Despite a top-10 finish at Homestead, the driver of the No. 34 Ford failed to finish in the Top 10 in all other 1.5-Mile Intermediate races this season. McDowell’s equipment is not great enough to regularly run in the Top 10 at this track type and his history is unfavorable compared to his starting position. Do not let McDowell’s low price fool you this week as he will not help any lineups win this week.
Ryan Preece #37 (DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $4,500) – Starting: 12th – Another unfavorable driver for Kansas with a low price this week is Ryan Preece. Preece’s only top-20 finish in four starts at the site is 12th, which he captured in 2019. This season at 1.5-Mile Intermediate tracks, the driver of the No. 37 Chevrolet has one top-20 finish with positive PD. Similarly to McDowell, Preece has a lot of PD downside from his starting position and therefore is too risky to recommend considering the racers behind him with superior equipment.
CORE 4 PICKS TO WIN
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
To Keep up with my latest NASCAR content and other updates, follow me on Twitter @SeanE247.