Well, Vermont didn’t win, but they covered so I will consider that a win! Let’s ride that into this weekend NASCAR Mafia style!
*UPDATES IN BOLD RED – 3/24
- Martinsville Speedway
- Sunday 3/24/19 – 2 PM
- .0526 mile, Paved
Well, Vermont didn’t win, but they covered so I will consider that a win! Let’s ride that into this weekend, NASCAR Mafia style! Headed to Martinsville, some short track racing. This is a 500 lap event.
Last Race Notables: Joey Logano won.
- Laps Led – Logano: 309, Kyle Busch: 100, Keselowski: 41, Hamlin: 31
- Start/Finish – Logano 10/1, Truex 33/3, Elliott 19/7, Newman 16/8, Johnson 34/12, Ty Dillon 23/15, Ragan 36/18, Menard 35/22
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37 etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34 etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
Kyle Busch ($13,000) – Starting 14th. At this point, do I really need to give you a reason. Probable dominator almost every weekend. 16 top-10’s, 15 top-5’s and two wins here at Martinsville.
Joey Logano ($11,300) – Starting 1st. Won the last race here, which was a playoff race. Off to a great start of the season. I fully expect Team Penske to have a great showing this weekend. Nine top-10’s, six top-5’s and a win here at Martinsville.
Brad Keselowski ($12,400) – Starting 3rd. 12 top-10’s, seven top-5’s and a win here. Team Penske is on my radar. Kes is fast and having a good year. Solid pick this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,900) – Starting 9th. Finished 3rd, 4th and 2nd in his last three here at Martinsville. Running for Gibbs’ team, will he get his first win of the year? Should be in for a nice run on Sunday, even possibly win.
Denny Hamlin ($9,400) – Starting 5th. Short track master and off to a nice start with three of his last four top-10’s. One of my picks to win this weekend. 19 top-10’s, 13 top-5’s and five wins here at Martinsville.
Clint Bowyer ($8,400) – Starting 11th. Car trouble last weekend, looking to bounce back at a track he runs well. Bowyer won here last year and has 15 top-10’s, six top-5’s and a win here at Martinsville.
Daniel Suarez ($7,600) – Starting 10th. Really quick car this weekend. Could be a nice sleeper. Top-5 possibility. Finished 9th here last year.
Jimmie Johnson ($8,000) – Starting 12th. Top-5 this weekend. Has dominated here at Martinsville. Honestly, if he doesn’t come through this weekend, he may be a fade from here on out. Staying strong here. JJ is gonna come through…..Hopefully low owned. Check this….24 top-10’s, 19 top-5’s and nine wins here………LOL. If there was a breakout track……….this is it!!
Ryan Newman ($6,800) – Starting 21st. Let us down last weekend, but that won’t stop me from being on him this weekend. 16 top-10’s, eight top-5’s and a win here. Betting a bounce back weekend and hopefully will be low owned due to poor performance last week.
David Ragan ($5,600) – Starting 26th. Average finish of 22.3. Three top-10’s and a top-5 here. Finished 18th last time out here. Hopefully, he starts in the back.
Austin Dillon ($7,300) – Starting 30th. Starting position play. Quick in practices and solid long lap runs. Horrible qualifying, which should make for a high reward play. The play may be chalky, but hoping it isn’t. Horrible finishes here last year, both 30th. Coming off a solid run last week, gonna roll with him.
Paul Menard ($7,000) – Starting 15th. Hit and miss here. Going with a hit this weekend. Had a decent year to date, hoping for a finish in the teens, possible top-10. Quick in practices, so we will see.
PICKS TO WIN
- Joey Logano
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Throw one in for JJ at +3500
- Kyle Busch over Truex
- Kyle Busch over Kes
- Kes over Truex
- Logano over Truex
- Hamlin over Bowyer
- Logano over Bowyer
- Hamlin over Harvick
- Hamlin over Blaney
- Bowyer over Harvick
- Kurt Busch over Elliott
- Almirola over Elliott
- JJ over Elliott
- JJ over Kurt Busch
- JJ over Almirola
- Larson over Jones
- Suarez over Bowman
- Newman over Dillon
- Menard over Stenhouse
- Byron over DiBenedetto
- Ty Dillon over Preece
- Ragan over McDowell
DFS CHEAT SHEET
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.