Your weekly guide to Monday night’s Showdown slate on DraftKings. Ryan Clifford breaks down the top options at CAPT & FLEX, optimal stacking rules, and all of the slate-specific strategy you’ll need to get yourself atop the leaderboards!
Again, I strongly recommend MME for these NFL Showdown slates. If you do only play single-entry, the same rules still apply, but again, it’s the optimal lineup winning these large-field GPP’s, and the more entries we put in, the better the chance of us landing on that perfect lineup.
Just this week, I got a large data dump of optimal FanDuel Single Game lineups from 2018-2019. I figured I’d throw some of the trends I found in here for FanDuel users that might be looking for the best ways to build lineups on that site.
There were 237 FanDuel Single Game slates from 2018-2019. Of those 237 slates, the optimal lineup’s total salary breaks down like this:
I generally use 90% as the threshold for my DK Showdown rules. If you used that same measurement, you would want to set your minimum salary at $54,000 for FanDuel Single Game lineups.
CAPT Position Breakdown
In the past couple of Showdown write-ups, I gave you the breakdown of CAPT position for optimal FanDuel lineups in 2020. Here is the breakdown of 237 slates in 2018-2019 (a much bigger sample):
As you can see, quarterbacks are a much better MVP option on FanDuel, as the optimal position in roughly one-third of perfect lineups. Running backs appear most often in the MVP slot (38.4%), but you should not completely write off WR’s either (23.6%).
Lineup Breakdown by Team
Just like I do on DraftKings, it looks to be a good idea to make sure you are stacking your MVP on FanDuel with at least one teammate. While the 3-2 stack is the most frequent optimal build, the difference between 4-1, 3-2, and 2-3 is negligible.
Other lineups trends that fall into the 90% threshold:
- Max 1 kicker (96.2% of optimal lineups)
- Max 1 tight end (94.9% of optimal lineups)
- Max 2 running backs (92.0% of optimal lineups)
- At least 1 wide receiver (93.2% of optimal lineups)
- Max 2 wide receivers from one team (99.2% of optimal lineups)
For what it’s worth, at least one quarterback was used in 210 of 237 optimal lineups (88.6%).
Check out Monday night’s video guide for setting up the optimizer for tonight’s Showdown contests (video is processing and will be available to view as soon as it’s done):
Setting Up the Optimizer
You’ll want to jump into our optimizer, which has been preloaded with our projections for the entire week, and then you can set up your initial groups:
- At least 1 QB (Newton CAPT, Newton, Flacco)
- At most 1 K (Folk, Castillo)
- At most 1 DST (Patriots, Jets)
- In the position stacks tab, stack CAPT with at least 1 QB/RB/WR/TE/K/DST from the same team
Building the Punt Pool
Next up, we need to put our “punts” into the player pool, as we’ll be building a group with them.
You must pay attention to the inactive list that is announced 60-90 minutes before kickoff. Make sure none of these guys are on that list. Some of them will probably be, and you’ll need to adjust your pool at that point.
Here are the punts you should add to your player pool at this point.
Patriots: Jakob Johnson (RB), Isaiah Zuber (WR)
Jets: Ty Johnson (RB), Ryan Griffin (TE)
New England has been a part of four Showdown slates this season. One of those was the Chiefs game which featured Stidham and Hoyer at quarterback. In the other three, Cam Newton was the optimal CAPT twice, and was a FLEX in the perfect lineup in the third one. He’s got rushing upside, facing the league’s worst defense (in just about every category), and dueling a washed up Joe Flacco on the other side of the field. Newton should be one of the top options at CAPT, and when he’s not the CAPT, is near lock status for me in FLEX tonight.
Joe Flacco hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since 2017, and has just 17 in his 189 career games. Very little upside here. I will have some FLEX shares, but he will not be in my CAPT pool.
At running back, Damien Harris is coming off of his second 100+ yard rushing game of the season, in which he’s played just four games. If Sony Michel is activated in time for tonight’s game, that would throw a wrinkle into Harris’ CAPT upside, but if Michel is out, Harris is likely my favorite CAPT option on the slate.
For the Jets, Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine will share time, with Ty Johnson mixing in. Hard pass on any of these guys for CAPT purposes.
We generally want to use the WR1 or WR2 for CAPT exposure. This is pretty clear-cut on both sides tonight: Jakobi Meyers and Demiere Byrd for New England; Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman for the Jets.
Neither of these teams have tight ends worth a look at CAPT.
Refer to the video above for detailed instructions on setting up tonight’s CAPT pools.
Filling the FLEX Pool
The last step is to fill in the FLEX pool with all of the remaining players that will appear. Again, you may need to adjust when inactives are released, but for now, you should have 31 total players in your pool.
CAPT (6): Newton, Harris, Meyers, Byrd, Crowder, Perriman
QB (2): Newton, Flacco
RB (7): Harris, White, Burkhead, Jakob Johnson, Gore, Perine, Ty Johnson
WR (9): Meyers, Byrd, Olszewski, Zuber, Crowder, Perriman, Mims, Smith, Berrios
TE (3): Izzo, Herndon, Griffin
K (2): Folk, Castillo
DST (2): Patriots, Jets
We’re ready to build! Head back into “Advanced Options” and use the following settings:
- 2 unique players
- $48,900 maximum salary – UPDATED
- max 3 offensive players vs. defense
- 15% randomness – MAKE SURE TO TURN ON & CLICK ON “CHANGE ALL PLAYERS” (see image below)
- 0.1 minimum projection included in calculation
Notable Positive Correlations
Joe Flacco – Jamison Crowder 0.41
Joe Flacco – Breshad Perriman 0.40
Joe Flacco – Denzel Mims 0.34
Sergio Castillo – Jets DST 0.25
Frank Gore – Jets DST 0.23
Cam Newton – Jakobi Meyers 0.22
Joe Flacco – Chris Herndon 0.20
Frank Gore – Sergio Castillo 0.20
Cam Newton – Ryan Izzo 0.18
Joe Flacco – Ryan Griffin 0.18
Cam Newton – Gunner Olszewski 0.17
Joe Flacco – Jeff Smith 0.17
Cam Newton – Damiere Byrd 0.15
Joe Flacco – Sergio Castillo 0.15
Notable Negative Correlations
Cam Newton – Jets DST -0.54
Damien Harris – Jets DST -0.27
Nick Folk – Jets DST -0.27
Patriots DST – Joe Flacco -0.20
Cam Newton – Frank Gore -0.18
Damien Harris – Frank Gore -0.18
Cam Newton – Sergio Castillo -0.17
Nick Folk – Frank Gore -0.15
We’re ready to go. Click on “Calculate 50 Lineups” (or less depending on how many you are building) and your first 50 lineups will be built. If you’re like me, and you’re building more than that, click that same button again and spit out 50 more. With the randomness set to 15% and 3 unique players, you shouldn’t get too many duplicate lineups.
When you have your second set of 50 lineups, click on “select lineups” and “move 50 selected” from the drop down menu, and it will move all of the non-duplicated lineups over to your first batch. Keep repeating the process until you have your desired number of lineups.
Click on “export lineups”, make sure to select to proper slate, and your lineups are ready to upload into DK!
Remember to keep an eye on inactives, I’ll be in chat once they’re out.
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