Duke’s UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler Breakdown and Predictions for your DFS Lineups!!!
I told myself to go light tonight…it’s a PPV. F it. We’re firing. All system bets so we’ll trust the math. I’m not losing faith yet but we are drifting towards reverting back to trusting instincts if we don’t turn this around. I’ve updated a few selections as well below. GL!
UFC 262 BETS
System Bets: (in order of preference)
Mike Grundy 1.12 to win 1
Charles Oliveira 1.2 to win 1
Giagos 2 to win 1
Pickett 1.05 to win 1
Shevchenko 1.19 to win 1
Barboza 1 to win 1.32
Bontorin 1 to win 1.4 (not a huge fan of this one)
WE ARE LIVVVEEEEE from the sold-out Toyota Center in Houston, TX. UFC 262 – 12 fights (for now)! To be completely honest, this card is really top-heavy. I’m very interested in the main event. I can’t wait to watch Tony Ferguson v Beneil Dariush. I’m pumped to see if Matt Schnell can string two great performances together. After that….
It’s unfortunate that the Edwards/Diaz and Hermansson/Shahbazyan fights were canceled because this was a banger of a card. Now it’s a card. It’s an ok card. It’s a PPV that I’m not thrilled to pay $60 for but guess what? I pay it every single time. I’m not stopping now.
Hopefully, between my article and Adam’s, you find some winners and a DFS lineup that puts some cash in your pockets. With that, let’s head to the great state of Texas and lock the cage behind us. It is a larger cage. Texas judges are bad. Like, really bad. Prepare accordingly.
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler Fight Info
May 15, 2021
Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX
Graphics via ESPN
Someone other than Khabib holding this belt. Of course, it’s because Khabib vacated the belt after retiring, but it’s still odd. We have Oliveira, who’s really come on of late, vs. Michael Chandler, who obliterated Dan Hooker for his first and only UFC win. Is this a worthy title fight? Seems early for Chandler and justified for Oliveira, but Do Bronx got here by beating the washed-up Tony Ferguson, who we’ll talk about later.
I talked about Chandler really stepping in and almost overstepping to throw power shots against Chandler. Well, how’d that work out Duke? KO city by Chandler. Chandler obviously has big power and supreme confidence in his striking at the moment out of Sanford MMA. Dan Hooker is a monster, but he’s taken so much damage you have to wonder if his chin is waning. He’s also been talking about not loving the sport. He’s called people sick for watching it. It was a great win, but I’m not losing my mind because Chandler touched him up early. Chandler can certainly wrestle as well and is a fantastic athlete, but does he really want to take this to the ground? Perhaps he could grab some takedowns to score points and slow down the leg kicks from Oliveira and then stand it back up.
Oliveira is SLICK off his back. The Kevin Lee fight showed as much, but Kevin Lee is now moving up to 170. Tony Ferguson might be on his way out of the sport. Oliveira’s hands are a bit underrated as well because he’s so slick on the ground. I know Oliveira has some questions about his heart inside the cage and maybe taking an easy way out. I couldn’t disagree more. This is his opportunity. It’s a 5 round fight. He’ll certainly have chances to take an easy way out, but how in the world would he?
These two are funny, actually. Chandler is known as the wrestler but has good hands. Oliviera is the BJJ superstar who has good hands. Typically, when both guys are so dangerous on the ground, we end up with a stand-up battle. From that standpoint, I’ll have to lean Chandler with the bigger power and wrestlers gas tank. I was not on Chandler against Hooker, but that win made me go back and rewatch the tape for both Chandler and Hooker. I could have and probably should have seen that potential outcome. The power for Chandler is real, and I’m backing him here.
OFFICIAL PICK: MICHAEL CHANDLER
YES! What a fight. 37-year-old Ferguson and 32-year-old Dariush. One on the way down (potentially) and one on the way up. From a stylistic standpoint, this should be a really fun fight. We know Tony’s style is awkward and exciting. The tough part is his head movement has gone from slick and elusive to slow and predictable. Justin Gaethje almost killed him. Charles Oliveira completely obliterated him. There is no doubting his toughness. He’ll stay in there until the final bell or he’s unconscious.
The fact of the matter is, Ferguson’s a weird guy who’s taken significant damage to the brain. It’s not quite Diego Sanchez level of crazy, but it’s close. His pressure and cardio is his weapon, and it could be a factor in the fight here. However, his takedown defense is suspect at this point. Oliveira can scrap a bit, but it was as if he just lazily decided to take it down and had his way. That is my massive worry here for El Cucuy.
Dariush is such a fun fighter as well, but his cage IQ is what has me leaning towards Dariush.
I talk all the time about wanting to know what I’m going to get on fight night. Dariush will have watched the tape. He’ll have seen the holes in Ferguson’s game. He’ll make adjustments on the fly. The issue here is that Beneil does seem to put his chin on a plate at least once a fight. He’s been rocked in seemingly every fight he takes but always battles through and comes out on top. I also really liked his interview after the Ferreira fight. He wants a title shot. He’s fighting for a belt. This is for legacy, and there is no better way to cement that legacy than beating a true legend of the game. Beneil needs to use the same game plan he had against Diego Ferreira and get this baby to the mat. If he does, he points his way to a victory.
Under 2.5 rounds is sitting around -190. Tony Ferguson hasn’t actually knocked anyone out in years. Is Ferguson submitting Dariush? Unlikely. At these odds, it has to be a Dariush win inside the distance. I’m good either way.
OFFICIAL PICK: BENEIL DARIUSH
Matt Schnell’s standup took a rocket ship to the top of the heap in his fight against Tyson Nam. Schnell’s head movement was on point. His distance control was on point. His combinations were slick and hidden. However, I’m still a touch worried about his chin. Schnell is coming up from 125 to 135. You’d think that would add a bit of power to the game of Schnell, but Bontorin is big for the division regardless. Schnell is a BJJ black belt and showed off a nice grappling game against the likes of Louis Smolka by taking him down and submitting Smolka in the first.
Bontorin was beating the pants off of Kai Kara-France in the matchup between top 10 fighters. His movement was smooth while they were standing early, but he clearly wanted to get the fight to the ground as soon as possible. The counter right check hook is a weapon he can use, but it was the slight opening that Kara-France left that Bontorin jumped on and landed the takedown Bontorin was in the body triangle within seconds and was working submissions before the fight was stopped with just 5 seconds to go in the first round.
There was an argument to be made for a 10-8 round for Bontorin until that point. Bontorin’s flow with his top game is so fun to watch. You scramble, he scrambles. The position may change, but the dominant position does not. Once they stood back up, the head movement slowed, and Kara-France put the finishing touches on him.
Two questions must be asked: 1) Can Bonotrin get this to the ground? 2) If he does, can he finish Schnell?
I kind of see this like the Pantoja fight for Schnell. Pantoja landed an early takedown. They traded some big shots. Pantoja caught Schnell and finished the fight. Schnell’s standup does seem to have evolved since that fight. He’s a very technical striker, and his takedown defense is improving. So to answer those questions, I’ll go 1) yes and 2) no. I do think he can do enough to win rounds and potentially have the power to get the finish. I’ll go with the dog, and it will be a bet for me.
Bontorin missed weight. Didn’t look great and it was soooo close before. I’m going with the taller, better striker here with Schnell. Oddly enough, math says to bet Bontorin. So I’m double crossing myself but I do think Schnell wins the fight here.
OFFICIAL PICK: MATT SCHNELL
I love to give Chookagian shit and use her as a barometer for level of competition, but she’s actually pretty damn accomplished. Her only real bad loss is the Carmouche loss in 2016. Losing to Jessica Andrade and Valentina Schevchenko is what literally everyone else does. She’s good enough to get those fights. She’s obviously very tall and long for the division. She is noisy but effective with her striking. She’s also added a grappling element to her fighting of late. I really thought that Calvillo would have more success with the wrestling, but Chookagian stuffed the takedowns and kept the fight at distance while coasting to a win. If she does the same against Araujo, she’ll get the win again.
Araujo is not some young prospect working her way up the ladder here. At 34, this is the necessary jump in competition, but one I think is too much for her talent level. She ragdolled Modafferi, but if you’ve been with me for more than a cup of coffee, you know how I feel about Roxanne. I do like Montana De La Rosa, and she handled her fairly well. The issue I see with Araujo actually came from that fight. De La Rosa was coming on in the third against Araujo. That’s a fight she was clearly winning but was trending away from her. Does Araujo have the gas tank to come back from losing an early-round? I haven’t seen it. She might, but I haven’t seen it.
I do not see Araujo finishing Chookagian. I don’t see Chookagian finishing Araujo. We are heading for a decision here in the state of Texas, so flip a freaking coin no matter what happens. However, I’m taking Katlyn to win by decision as she keeps this fight standing. -400 to go to a decision, FYI…
OFFICIAL PICK: KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN
First of all, Burgos with one of the best Tapology pictures ever. It shows exactly the type of fighter he is. A scrap is a joy for this nut. Barboza is an artist with his striking who can also take a ton of damage. I dinged Ferguson for all the damage he’s taken throughout his career, but specifically of late, and I have to do the same for Barboza. It’s also interesting that he’s dropped down to 145 later in his career after spending so much time at 155. The move was made to extend his career.
Barboza had peaked at 155 and couldn’t get past the best of the best. He was destroyed by Khabib. He was taking a beating for 5 rounds before the Dr. stepped in to save him. The Felder loss was the last straw. Now, it’s not easy to take on Dan Ige in your first 145 fight, but Barboza is such a technician that the matchup made sense. The decision could have literally come down to the 1 takedown by Ige. In saying that, Ige would be a big favorite over Burgos in my opinion. I would have liked to see him finish Amirkhani, but he picked up the win.
Speaking of Amirkhani, Burgos knocked his ass out in the third round of a dominant display in November of 2019. Amirkhani did get the fight to the ground early and caused Burgos problems early. Burgos had a cut within a minute and spent the first several minutes on this back. It was a change of pace for Burgos, who’s both physically strong and typically a fast starter. Burgos is a gas tank monster but is hittable. I love his tenacity coming forward and his badass need to finish fights.
This very well could be the fight of the night. Both guys are tough as nails and love to throw bombs. The fight going to a decision is currently at -165, and if it does, we could see quite a bit of blood on the mat. A few years ago, I’d be all over Barboza here, but the accumulated damage seems like a big hurdle here, so I’ll take Burgos in what is otherwise a very even matchup.
OFFICIAL PICK: SHANE BURGOS
A couple of slick BJJ black belts. Souza is 41, coming off a scary KO against Kevin Holland and losing 4 of his last 5. Andre Muniz, at 31, is a submission savant and carrying a 6 fight win streak, 4 in the UFC. He’s a 3rd-degree black belt and his grappling is insane. However, his standup is pretty suspect.
For Muniz, you almost need him to be losing to get a win. He’s very dangerous off his back, but his stand-up is loopy and loose. The Fabinski fight was a clinic for Muniz, who was losing a clinch battle for several minutes, jumped on an arm in guillotine, transferred to a guillotine, and then swung his hips, locked up a triangle, and finished the fight. The guy is just never out of a fight. Muniz showed a great gas tank and offensive takedowns against Arroyo. That could be the slightest of edges that he needs in this big jump in competition.
I was starting to think, remember Souza just ripped Holland to the ground. Then I remembered that Holland has zero takedown defense, so toss that out. Before that, he went 5 rounds with Jan Blachowicz at 205, losing a split decision. Souza was working his wrestling but had little success. He did manage to push the pace and slow down the champ. Souza also battled for 25 minutes with Jack Hermansson. He knocked out Chris Weidman. Jacare’s standup rarely gets discussed because typically we assume he’ll somehow get the fight to the ground and submit his opponent, but that’s the old Jacare. His stand-up has really improved over the last several years, and he’ll carry a power advantage into the octagon on Saturday.
The level of competition question is of no comparison. Jacare is decorated and challenged at every level. Muniz is a wizard on the ground, but Jacare has never been submitted in his career. Can Muniz be the first to do so? I say no, and at that point, Muniz either has to win the grappling battle or the stand-up. I have Jacare with an edge in the standup and wouldn’t be shocked to see him finish Muniz inside the distance. While I typically side with the younger guys in this situation, Muniz is so one-dimensional and Jacare so experienced that I give him the nod.
OFFICIAL PICK: JACARE SOUZA
If you asked me to guess Lando Vanetta’s age or I’ll die, I’d probably just start running. Why did I think he was like 36? I know he’s been around for a while, but he’s just 29 years old. To say he’s had a mixed career in the UFC would be putting it mildly. He has just 3 wins from 10 UFC fights but just keeps getting contracts. This could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back if he loses here. Vanetta is certainly a fan favorite and has exciting fights but clearly to the detriment of his career. Vanetta really struggles with takedown defense. That is the major path for Grundy.
Grundy is an accomplished wrestler from Manchester, England. He has enough power to do some damage on the feet, but Grundy wants this thing on the ground asap. Let’s be honest, if Grundy can take down Movsar Evloev as a decent dog, he can take down Vanetta. It wasn’t once; he had 6. He almost finished the fight in the first. I like Grundy to get this done, but is it inside the distance? He’s never been finished on the feet, and only prime Tony Ferguson has submitted him.
We could be heading for a decision here, and with Grundy’s potential gas tank issues, we’ll need the first two rounds.
OFFICIAL PICK: MIKE GRUNDY
Good news and bad news for Jordan Wright. Good news? He kept up his stellar record of fights ending inside the horn. The bad news? Jordan Buckley beat the shit out of Jordan Wright. Anthony Hernandez did the same, to be fair. The signs were there. Hernandez’s win and Wright’s loss were overturned because Fluffy was on the weed. Wright is a pressure fighter who uses all 4 limbs as weapons, but he’s a guy who will dominate a regional scene against guys who don’t train, even part-time, but really struggle with the elite on the roster in the UFC.
Pickett is a grinder with great size and long arms. His chin is great, and his hands are adequate. Pickett’s power is underrated because he’s usually on the back foot. He has landed a takedown in each of his last 2 fights, and that could be an area Pickett simply falls into with how I see this fight going. If Wright is pressing forward and throwing leg kicks both low and high, at some point, Pickett has to counter with his hands or clinch up or even take down Wright. At that point, I haven’t seen anything on film to show that Wright can handle himself on the ground.
This is a toss-up, to be honest. Typically in that situation, I’ll take the pressure fighter, but I think Wright’s got a silver spoon chin. I’ll let that be the determining factor in selecting Pickett to win.
OFFICIAL PICK: JAMIE PICKETT
Andrea Lee has really struggled against grapplers of late. She landed 3 takedowns of her own against Roxanne, but she landed 4 against Andrea. Lauren Murphy is super strong for the division and had the edge on the ground, with Lee landing over 100 significant strikes. Finally, Joanna Calderwood put it on Andrea Lee for 4 rounds. What I love about Lee is her toughness. She’ll stand and trade if she has to but has the wrestling ability IF her opponent does not.
Antonina has the last name but not the game. That’s ok. No one does. Shevchenko has her own issues with the takedown defense. She lost to freaking Modafferi as well, with Roxanne taking her down 5 times. Pudilova landed a takedown before getting choked out. Chookagian worked some of that wrestling we talked about earlier and took her down on all 3 attempts. It’s the Lipski fight that is interesting to me. Lipski is not a wrestler. Shevchenko had a chance to stand and bang with an opponent after getting destroyed by Chookagian, and she ended up landing the takedown and pounding out Lipski.
It was a great bounce-back win for Shevchenko, but we learned that she can evolve. This new wrinkle shows, she’s not just living off her name, but she is making improvements in her game. It’s so new that I don’t know we can say this is now part of her game, and Lipski isn’t the wrestler that Lee is. Frankly, I don’t like either of these women’s games, so how do we pick a winner?
I’m going with volume and grappling. Lee will throw volume. She can mix in a takedown or two. She can win rounds. If Lee loses this, she’s likely done. Shevchenko doesn’t have that worry. Give me the girl with her back against the cage, metaphorically speaking.
I WAS WAVERING BEFORE BUT I’M MOVING TO SHECHENKO FROM LEE. I’LL JUST TAKE THE BETTER FIGHTER IN THIS CASE.
OFFICIAL PICK: ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO
Gina Mazany is the biggest favorite on the card. What a world. Both of these women were basically out the door before their last win. Mazany took on an Instagram model and wrestled the shit out of her. She landed 7 takedowns and grounded and pounded her way to a knockout late in the fight. It was NOTHING like her film. She was coming off first-round losses in 2 of her last 3. To be fair, it’s maybe the best she’s looked and her first fight at 125. The thing is that her cardio looked good. Her toughness looked good. Krause is a wizard, and that has me leaning towards Mazany here, but let’s talk Cachoeira.
Cachoeira was done. DONE in the UFC. From getting to the second round against Valentina Shevchenko to losing to Luana Carolina is a massive fall. She was 0-3 in the UFC and someone I consistently looked to fade. Then Shana Dobson happened.
Cachoeira took the center of the octagon as she’s prone to do and started throwing haymakers. It wasn’t technical strikes. It wasn’t solid combinations behind a stiff jab. These were looping hooks. You know, the type of things that would typically leave massive gaps for a takedown. The uppercut she caught Dobson with was literally thrown from across the ring. Go back and watch it… Cachoeira crow hopped into a right uppercut that she had cocked by her side for two steps. Credit to Cach as it was a good shot, and she was there to pounce and finish the fight, but that’s the kind of stuff that a Krause fighter would eat alive.
Mazany has been chin-checked before. Cachoeira is at her best in the first round with her power. If Mazany can grab an early takedown, it could be an easy night for her. But if Cach These Hands lands a big blow, that chin of Mazany will have some questions to answer.
OFFICIAL PICK: GINA MAZANY
Kevin Aguilar has had a tough run of opponents. I love Dan Ige. No worries about the loss there. The knockout loss to Tukhugov was concerning because that’s not really something he’s known for. It was a big left hook that was somewhat blocked by Aguilar, and he couldn’t recover. Then, of course, there is the loss to Charles Rosa. I don’t think Rosa is as bad as some say he is, but to get out-struck by Rosa is not a great look. You could say he was a bit gun shy after the KO. Perhaps that was a fact. Ok, fine, but after a few minutes..or the first round…or halfway through the fight, you have to snap out of it and have a go. Aguilar was on wobbly legs in round 2. There also isn’t a plan B for Aguilar.
Lutz is evolving as a fighter. He’s competed on the Dana White Contender Series twice and looked like two different fighters. The first go-round, he was winning the fight pretty handily before tiring late. After not getting a contract, he went back to the drawing board and added some wrestling to his game. Blackledge is very early in his pro-MMA career, and Aguilar has certainly seen the tougher set of opponents, but we haven’t seen Lutz for 6 months, and he looked markedly better the last time he had 6 months between fights.
What’s odd to me is that we are getting dog money on the UFC vet. Lutz isn’t some prized prospect, and he doesn’t have impressive wins on the resume. Aguilar has wins over Rick Glenn and Enrqique Barzola. Of course, I’m worried about his chin, but I’ll lean towards the experience and a bounce-back spot here for Aguilar.
OFFICIAL PICK: KEVIN AGUILAR
Check that, Mazany! Giagos is the biggest favorite on the card. What a fun way to start the card. Soriano is fighting out of Sanford MMA and making his UFC return. I thought he looked familiar. He had 3 fights in the UFC back in 2014/15 and was submitted twice in 3 fights. Soriano is a really good striker and kickboxer, but he struggles with grapplers. By the way, they were all at 145. He was 24 at the time and is just 31 still. Since his run with the UFC, he’s still having some of the same issues. His losses are all getting taken down and beaten down or submitted.
Christos Giagos has gone 5 of 15, 2 of 5, 6 of 13 and 5 of 10 takedowns over his last 4 fights. You tell me how you think this fight will go. Giagos was supposed to fight Joel Alvarez, but visa issues forced Alvarez to pull out. So yes, Giagos is going to be grappling his balls off, and if history is any indication, he’ll have success against Soriano.
Giagos is a crazy man, and Soriano has some nasty striking, so who the hell knows? If you are taking Soriano, it’s likely by finish. I don’t know that he’s going to stuff enough takedowns or land enough strikes to outpoint Giagos.
OFFICIAL PICK: CHRISTOS GIAGOS
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