Nice little 8-game slate for MLB DFS Action tonight. It’s a low expected scoring slate as we have just two teams with totals over five and both are at 5.4 runs expected.
We do have a lot of top-end starters going today as well, so there are fewer teams to consider bats from than we would like. We have less than three weeks remaining in the season, and more teams each day with little to nothing to play for.
It makes things very interesting as we reach the point in the season where records actually matter. You can play DFS and not look at the standings much for the first few months of the year, but, at this point, it’s foolish not to check it out as the standings can change what teams are trying to actually win and letting their players play at this point in the year.
Chalk Stacks: Brewers, Indians, Astros
Sneaky Stacks: Mets, Cubs
Top HR Call: Bryce Harper
10% HR Call: Freddie Freeman
5% HR call: Shoehei Ohtani
- Yasmani Grandal – We have a bunch of options that are pricey and project well between Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto, and Grandal. For my money, if I spend up, I’ll take Grandal. He’s a tad cheaper than both of them and has the softest matchup against a guy who struggles with lefties. Grandal has very good numbers and his team is projected for the top score on the day, so it makes little sense to go to what I feel are slightly worse plays for more money.
- Wilson Ramos – I normally try to hit every price point in my breakdown, but I hate the cheap catchers. If you need to save to fit in stud pitching and some $2K guy gets a start today, that’s fine, but Wilson Ramos is likely as low as I go. I actually prefer lefties against Kelley, but really I think the Mets are just going to go off today and stomp the D-Backs. Ramos has prime lineup real estate and a matchup with a guy who has allowed power to both sides of the plate this year.
- Anthony Rizzo – I debated Rizzo against Freddie Freeman and the matchup is just so much softer here. Cal Quantrill gives up a .351 wOBA to lefties, which means Rizzo should smash him today. Rizzo has well above average numbers against RHP throughout his career and some power as well. I like the Cubs in general too, so he should have plenty of chances to drive in runs or be driven in.
- Pete Alonso – You will see a lot of Mets make this write up because I expect them to smash today, and no one on the team smashes more than Pete Alonso. He set the rookie NL Record for Home Runs already and his numbers even in a same handed spot just pop off the page. A 145 wRC+, .389 wOBA and over a .300 ISO score are elite.
- Eric Thames – The Brewers are slated to score the most runs here, but the offense is without some of the big guns. Mike Moustakos is out and so is Hiura, which means prime lineup spots in the middle of the order need filling. The kid Dugger from Miami has been weak against left-handed hitters and we could see Thames batting clean up today. His $2700 FD price just jumped off the page to me and I expect him to be a popular salary saver tonight.
- Jose Altuve – The other high scoring team on the slate is the Astros projected for the same 5.4 runs as the Brewers today. Slightly tougher matchup, but Mike Fiers is not shut down type guy. This offense is loaded from top-to-bottom and Altuve always seems to be racking up stats across the board. He is a hit machine with above average numbers against both handedness of pitcher and can score a ton of runs with the big bats behind him. He has a high floor and a high ceiling, which is rare to find, especially at the position.
- Gleyber Torres – More of a GPP play today for me, but he does have very good numbers against lefties. He also has been on fire with five hits in 10 at-bats the last two games, including three extra base hits. This is a thin position, especially on the upside and Gleyber has the highest ceiling, even higher than Altuve’s on his best days. We saw that yesterday with a 35 DK-point outburst.
- Cory Spangenberg – With Hiura hurt, Shaw and Spangenberg are jockeying for playing time. Spangenberg has been awesome lately with multiple double digit fantasy performances over the last few games. Shaw has been used more as a pinch hitter in late innings, but honestly I’m fine with either lefty here. To me Spangenberg would be the better play, and at min price on FD, I think he will take some ownership today. On DK he is $3400 and listed as SS/3B, but, again, I’m fine using him for a discount on a good splits matchup if he gets into the lineup.
- Kris Bryant – This is honestly one of the weakest positions here today, but I have Bryant slightly higher than Josh Donaldson as I would rather not pick on Nola with a righty if I can avoid it. Picking on Quantrill with righties has not really worked well either, so neither of these guys are in a great spot here. Still I do love the Cubs as a whole today and think they will get to Quantrill, which opens the door for some softer late innings matchups out of the bullpen.
- DJ LeMahieu – Next to Aaron Judge, he’s been the best hitter on the Yanks against lefties over the last three years. He owns a high 143 wRC+ score with over a .400 wOBA and a .219 ISO score. Eduardo Rodriguez is slightly above average in terms of his numbers, so the matchup is decent. The Yanks have some runs on him the last few times they met and it was because of a lot of walks and over a hit per inning. Those things bode well for DJ from up top that powerful Yankee lineup.
- Jose Osuna – If Travis Shaw plays you can also use him as a cheap option, but on FD Osuna is listed as 3rd base. This guy has legit power and good numbers against LHP. MadBum may not be as elite as he was, but this guy is still way above average. Osuna is cheap and has the right splits, so I like him as a cheap GPP Flier. He and Shaw are the two cheap guys I’m taking a long look at today.
- Alex Bregman – I have him #1 with an asterisk as he projects way above the field today with one notable exception. Bregman is a beast, like Altuve, against any handedness of pitcher. He’s been hitting clean up in the most potent offense in baseball and they project for the most runs today. He’s not cheap, but you get what you pay for and the luxury of Bregman is worth the price of admission, especially since we do have some cheap options to pair him with.
- Francisco Lindor – The Indians are projected just below five runs today and Lindor is one of the top options when this team is in soft spots. He plays a tough to fill position, but also has upside and hits on top of the order. Few shortstops have upside or hit near the top of the order, so even in bad matchups, you would like Lindor. This, of course, is not a bad matchup, which only makes him even more appealing. Bregman is still better, but Lindor is not far behind.
- Brandon Crawford – I do actually like Trevor Williams as an SP2 today, but Crawford is a guy who normally hits righties. He is very hit or miss as he could easily go yard or strike out twice on an 0-4 day – neither would surprise me. That is why I’d never touch him in cash. I’ll be paying up on FD today and on DK if I save I prefer Spangenberg who is SS eligible, but on FD Crawford is the best cheap bat with upside if you want to go that route in a GPP.
- Christian Yelich – He is my #1 OF option today by a wide margin. The matchup is great, he has a 158 wRC+ v. RHP with a .413 wOBA and a .264 ISO score and his team projects for the highest total. So many positives for him.
- Bryce Harper – Had to figure my top HR call on the day would make his way towards the top of the list. I honestly don’t hate his teammate Rhys Hoskins either. Mike Foltynewicz has been serving up homers this year and the ballpark shift is a big negative for that, too. Harper since 2017 is elite against RHP with a 140 wRC+ and a .388 wOBA. My favorite stat is the .267 ISO which is second only to Rhys at .271 on the team v. RHP. Folty has given up 20 HRs in 90 innings of work and they are split evenly to both sides of the plate, although his career numbers are worse to lefties, giving Harper the edge.
- Astros Outfield – In the interest of saving time, I’ll just write the three of them up together. I love this stack and so does Vegas. They should definitely get to Mike Fiers. Springer is the one with the most upside and highest projection, but Brantley and Alvarez are not far behind. All three guys hit up on top of that elite lineup sandwiched around Altuve and Bregman, who already are on the list. If I had to rank them I would go Springer, Brantley, Alvarez, but would not argue with anyone who prefers any of the three over the others. All of them are good plays whether you stack or just try to choose one or two to play.
- Jeff McNeil – I was so shocked to see how many guys the Mets have with elite numbers against right-handed pitching in this lineup. McNeil lacks power, but this guy is a hit machine. His 143 wRC+ score is second to only Pete Alonso here. He may lack power, but he is a solid floor guy at a discounted price in a matchup with a guy who struggles against LHBs. Every piece of the puzzle fits here today for him.
- Michael Conforto – More GPP than cash, but still safe in both for me here today. Conforto owns a 139 against RHP since 2017 too, and is another in a long list of Mets that profile well today. He has a slightly lower wOBA than McNeil at .376, but a lot more power with an ISO of .249. Kelley has been known to give up some homers with a 1.5 HR/9 this year and that Conforto upside on top of a high floor.
- Kyle Schwarber – The splits for Quantrill are severe and they absolutely favor lefties. Schwarber is another of the hit-or-miss kind of upside guys, but he has power, has been moving up in the order, and gets the right splits today.
- Corey Dickerson – I think the Phillies are going to smash Foltynewicz who has seen his ERA and xFIP balloon to over 5 this year with the HR numbers up as well. Lefties have always been his weaker side too, so things all line up for Dickerson. He owns a solid 120 wRC+ with a .350 wOBA and over a .200 ISO score since 2017. Not elite, but damn good numbers nonetheless.
- Oscar Mercado – I got into it a little bit with Lindor, but this Cleveland lineup is stacked with righties and face a guy who struggles with them. Mercado, Puig, Luplow, and Reyes are all in play, but Mercado is by far my favorite. He is safe and produces across the board. The other three guys are more HR dependent with Puig being the best of that group, although they are also more likely to strike out a few times and maybe go 0-4.
- Jason Heyward – Not as good a play as Schwarber, but also a few hundred cheaper. All the things we said about lefties against Quantrill apply here, too. He’s a few hundred cheaper, but also hits lower in the order, so that does make him less likely to hit value.
- Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo has missed much of the year, but his numbers v. RHP speak for themselves over the past few seasons. Again, this is one of the best spots on the day against a guy who struggles with lefties. Nimmo is cheap, which is why I wanted him included. He hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball, but he profiles well and is at a good price.
- Trent Grisham – Very cheap option if you need to dumpster dive today. Grisham had a good AAA season for the Brewers and earned himself some playing time at this level. The Brewers are missing a few big bats which has even opened him up to hitting near the top of that order. He is a lefty, so the splits are favorable and his low price on the team with the highest total could have me interested when lineups are released.