This is a very interesting 12-game slate we have. Of the 24 teams playing, nine of them project for 5.5 runs or more. Unlike Monday where we had just five games and only 2-3 teams projected to score runs, we should see plenty of run scoring action across the board tonight. I would not worry too much about super chalk as having so many teams and so many in good spots should spread out the ownership.
The four teams with the biggest projections are the Braves at 6.9 runs, the Red Sox at 6.5, the Indians at 6.2, and the Astros at 6. None of them are going to be cheap to stack as most of the key pieces on all four of those teams are towards the higher end of the pricing range at their respective positions. The Mets, Nationals, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Rangers all project for around 5.4-5.7 runs too, so we have plenty of places to look for offense today.
I have been staying away from cash games much of the last month with the entries down and a lot of uncertainty in lineups with the young guys called up. Today may actually be a day where it makes sense to go back to cash games for probably the last time this MLB season.
- Top Stacks: Braves, Red Sox, Blue Jays
- Secondary Stacks: Orioles, Cubs, Nationals
- Top HR Call: JD Martinez
- 10% HR Call: Willie Calhoun
- 5% HR Call: Anthony Santander
- Christian Vazquez – Very weak day for catchers and he is pricey as hell, but the Red Sox have the second highest projected score on the board. Vazquez has hit lefties well and proven a capable bat who can drive in some runs hitting in the middle of that order.
- Wilson Contreras – Not exactly cheap, nor the proper splits, but catcher is weak today and he is showing up on my screeners. I probably will not be heavily exposed to him, because I like the guy below him who is cheaper even more, but had to mention him as I expect he will be decently owned at a very weak position.
- Wilson Ramos – I prefer Ramos to Contreras and the Mets to the Cubs in general. Not many catchers have decent lineup real estate and Ramos is one of them. We should have a bunch of punt options today, but the discount on Ramos from Vazquez has me thinking he ends up the chalkiest catcher, and I can see why.
- Pete Alonso – Like the Mets a lot today and whenever the Mets produce the all time NL Rookie HR leader tends to be involved. I really did not expect him to end up as the highest projected 1B I had on my list today, but he did. He’s never unowned and he has both upside and consistency, so I really can’t knock anyone for going here.
- Anthony Rizzo – I’m so torn on Rizzo today. He has not been swinging the best bat lately, but the numbers for this matchup are mysteriously in his favor. Not only does he crush righties, but Agrazal is a gas can. Rizzo is leading off and on the road, but the game is in a bad hitter’s park. Rizzo is going to be popular tonight and I understand why, but he seems like a very hit or miss option. I include him here because he’ll have ownership and the numbers make sense, but it’s not a core play as I could easily see paths to failure for him, too.
- Brandon Belt – If you need to save, I think Belt is very sneaky today. The Giants project for over five runs and will take very little to any ownership on a 12-game slate. Belt is also pretty cheap on FD and he does have HR upside. This is a spot I think where we can find a cheap low-owned guy that could go yard and give us some GPP differentiation. I even trust him enough at that FD price to use him in cash and spend up elsewhere.
- Jose Altuve – No secrets here. Altuve crushes lefties and draws a weak one. He hits near the top of one of the most stacked offenses in all of baseball and he can rack up fantasy points in tons of ways. The Astros project for over six runs and only one guy even comes close to matching Altuve’s projected ceiling and average on this slate. He’s the clear best bet at a weak position.
- Cavan Biggio – This is the one guy who comes close to matching Altuve’s projection. He has started to heat up and still remains near the top of that Blue Jays order. They draw the best matchup on the day against a weak group of arms the Orioles will parade out. He should have a favorable matchup in every at-bat, his team projects for a top-five total, and he’s at home in one of the best hitter’s parks.
- Whit Merrifield – Merrifield is a big discount to the guys above. It makes sense as his team is projected to do very little today, but what little they do will likely be centered around Merrifield. I actually have him projected for the most points of guys not costing you about as much as the two listed first baseman on FD and DK. The guys beneath him are suspect and lack his upside. Merrifield’s upside tends to come from stolen bases and multi-hit games, but I trust those more than an HR dependent guy for cash, and most of the other slightly cheaper options are HR or bust.
- Anthony Rendon – Rendon has been having an MVP season and he draws a lefty, which is his preferred split. The Nationals’ 5.7 total is right with the Blue Jays for fifth highest on the slate, and Rendon has been scoring and driving in runs all year. He has power, he hits for average and he is not going to be super chalky today, despite this being the matchup that he prefers. Lots of reasons to be high on him today even though he’s not cheap.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. – If I pay up, I’m going Rendon, so my #2 options here is a guy in the mid range if I can’t afford Rendon. The Blue Jays also project highly here, Vlad is discounted, and the ballpark is favorable. His projection is one of the top-five at the position today and he’s cheaper than the guys projected around him, which makes him one of my favorite plays if i have to drop down a little in pricing.
- Brad Miller – Stone cold minimum for the Philadelphia Phillies on FanDuel at just $2,000 and he could end up near the top of the order against a righty today. It’s a good hitter’s park and not the toughest matchup ever against Anibal Sanchez. Hitting up in the order at min price in a good hitter’s park is why you have to at least consider him if you are looking for ways to save cash.
- Trea Turner – Good projection for the Nationals. Turner is not bad against lefties, but the numbers were not as elite this year as I thought they would be. Plus lefties are a tad tougher to steal on, so he does have some concerns. Still he projects higher than both Lindor and Bogaerts and way above Carlos Correa today. So as far as spend up options, he’s actually the clear projected #1 because of the soft matchup.
- Xander Bogaerts – Xander Bogaerts does not get enough credit for his bat, especially against LHP. He may not have the flashy power numbers, but the guy is consistent and solid with numbers well above league average. That Sox lineup has a bunch of solid bats on top of the order and hitting third gives Bogaerts a chance to drive them in or be on for the ones behind him to drive him home. He is probably a better cash play with the upside limited, but against lefties he has produced some of his bigger games in 2019, and those games have been good enough to help people take down GPPs.
- Kevin Newman – $3100 on FanDuel puts him as the cheapest guy that popped up as a good play for me today. You have plenty of options mentioned above and some who didn’t make the list closer to the $4K range, but Newman is my favorite of the cheap options. He has shown an ability to hit lefties and Jon Lester is not the lock down pitcher he once was. He tends to lead off too, so we should get max at bats from him.
- George Springer – Springer vs. a lefty is almost an automatic play for me. Not only does he project highly today, but he leads off on the road for one of the highest projected teams on the slate. Perfect matchup, although the ballpark is not the best. Still, Springer crushes lefties and projects as my 2nd highest raw points scoring outfielder today.
- JD Martinez – As elite as the numbers against lefties are for Springer, JD Martinez’s are better. JD owns a .400+ wOBA and .300+ ISO against lefties since 2016. JD also plays in one of the highest total games, and he actually has a better ballpark than Springer to hit in. I can’t argue with either guy, but I ended up adjusting my numbers to give the slight edge to Martinez as my overall #1 outfielder today.
- Kyle Schwarber – Schwarber is more of a boom or bust kind of guy, so I use him more often in GPPs. I love the matchup he has today as Agrazal is not very good and the Cubs have a sneaky high total. He has better splits against righties, so he fits the profile. His power gives him massive upside, especially in a projected high game, but he could also easily strike out three times and give you a zero, so use him in GPPs.
- Oscar Mercado – I think all four of the outfield options likely to be playing for the Indians are worth a look today and Mercado tops my list with his consistency. Other guys may have more upside, but Mercado grinds out good games with hits and runs. Puig, Luplow, and Reyes are all more of the one swing upside types, but Mercado is cash game and GPP viable, because he always does enough not to kill you and his upside is as high or higher.
- Yasiel Puig – More of a power source and GPP guy like Schwarber, but still an elite option in a great matchup. Remember the Indians project for one of the highest totals on the day and looking at FanDuel you get all these guys for right around $3K, which is not a lot of stress on the budget.
- Shin Soo-Choo – Rick Porcello has been bad, and while Choo has seen a slight decline over the years, his numbers are still well above league average against RHP. Porcello has been the kind of bad that you can even stack against and Vegas has the Rangers with a pretty high total for an underdog today.
- Willie Calhoun – Same price range as Choo and same splits advantage. The Rangers are a sneaky group of bats to use. I’m not normally a fan of that stack, but these are the two bats I’m trying to pry off as a mini stack when I can. Both priced at a slight discount from projected production, which is why they show up highly on a point-per-dollar basis today, especially on FD.
- Anthony Santander – Playing the Orioles at lower ownership in a high total game against the Blue Jays paid off for me on Monday, but I’m not going back to stacking Orioles on a much bigger slate like this. With that said, I don’t hate looking there for some action. Santander gives me the best bang for the buck with the high prices on Vilar and Mancini. It’s the right splits matchup favoring him and it’s a good hitter’s park. He is my low-owned guy I think can go yard today.
- Brando Nimmo – I assume we see Nimmo up near the top of the order today and the price discount from McNeil to him is significant. I like McNeil better as a hitter, but, for the discount, I think Nimmo is a good way to get some Mets exposure tonight.
- Adam Duvall – Duvell draws a lefty and his Braves are projected for the highest total on the board. He should be in a power spot around 4-6 in that order with high on base guys in front of him to drive home. Finally the dirt cheap price on FD at $2500 is too low for his upside. If he has a decent game, he can pay that off, and if he has a big game, he could smash his PP$ number.
- Jordan Luplow – Anytime you get Luplow against a lefty, you have to be thinking he could take this guy yard. Luplow is strictly a GPP though. When a righty reliever eventually comes in, he is a prime candidate to get pitch hit for. If he goes yard early, he could have big upside, but if he only gets three ABs, you will kick yourself if he is in your cash lineup. GPP only, but definitely worthy of inclusion due to his power upside.